I think we're ignoring a key piece of info here in that we're just looking at what it costs us to call but not thinking about what his bet sizing tells us about his hand. The $130 on the turn is curious to me, since it's less than half pot and only $10 more than his flop bet. If you've been at the table for a while, what have you learned about his bet sizing?

Here's how I see it:

1) He is value-betting with a flush or straight that he hit on the turn.
2) He is pot-controlling with a hand that was made on the flop--88, 66, 22.
3) He is trying to rep one of these things and thinks you will fold an overpair.

Figuring out which one is read dependent, but unless we've seen him pull a lot of stone cold bluffs, I find it hard to believe that he shows up with one pair or a bluff here. Isn't a good player going to 3-bet KK or QQ pf here? And wouldn't JJ, 10s, and 9s check behind on flop, because what are you calling with that's worse?

As played, whether I call river (and turn for that matter) is dependent on whether I can read the turn bet to mean he hit or not. If pot controlling with smaller set fits with prior lines, call.

Im b/f'ing all sets, but Im def checking back JJ and QQ, and possibly KK.

Looks like you played the hand perfectly imo.

Is he good enough to recognize that you are good enouth to realize that a bet like this can only ever really be a value bet and that you will lay down almost all non flush/str8 hands to this kind of bet ?? Is that to much of a stretch ??? You say you 2 have been discussing hands does he view you as a good hand reader ? I might level myself into a call here because of that and for the few times he has 2 pair which incedently i think he bet folds.

Usually though he probably recognizes you are fairly weak sees the board is scary he has hit his hand and feels you won't call much so extracting what he sees as max value. We could turn our hand into a bluff if he thinks the only hand we ever crai is the nut flush but it really depends on him being able to see that the only hand you would play in that way is the nut flush and you played it wierd cus you recognize him as a good hand reader also I high risk play but if you shove he has to believe a large portion of the time you have the nuts also a huge portion of his range is thin value bet fold line. I don't know I never get this tricky but
Given the dynamics it might be the play

Please feel free to flame me lol

I've seen him make smallish value bets in the past, especially against opponents he was chatting it up with, and he and I have been friendly. My gut feeling was that he had turned the flush or straight, but I wasn't ruling out sets or two pair.

I'm not too worried about JJ-KK, because I think he almost never shows up with them here. I think he'd 3bet KK preflop and at leasts sometimes 3bet QQ or JJ. I don't know if he'd raise the flop with these hands, and I think if he did he'd often check back the turn with them.

If the vast majority of his range is sets+ and we have the nut flush, and as you said, you're b/fing sets, isn't checking the right play with the nut flush? Even if it ends up being a check min-raise or a very small check-raise... I don't think he's calling with a hand he'd check behind anyway if we lead out on the end.

He definitely recognizes this.

He definitely views me as a good hand reader, so it's a viable play. If I had enough of a bankroll, I would have done it. Also, one of my general rules at 1/2 NL is not to try overly tricky bluffs against other good players to push a small edge or get into pissing contests, because it's simply not necessary and increasing variance a ton...

[QUOTE=cuserounder;31387608]

You're saying you would raise less pre? I got a bit confused with a typo or two in there, but a $6 raise in a live 1/2 NL game is going to take a flop at least 6-7 ways. A standard opening raise in a live 1/2 NL game is $10-$15.


sorry I am the typoo king.


Yes I dont want anyone to fold ! the more people who make a pre flop mistake the better. although are chances as a percentage of winning at show down has decreased are equity goes up as a $ value. its better ev. in $ terms to have lots of callers than it is to get it heads up or 3 way. coupled with that both position increases in value and premium pairs decrease in value as we get deeper. Also we have more room to maneuver post flop.

This flies in the face of generally accepted/conventional wisdom with big pairs. I got 3 calls at $15.

I'd rather have $45 in the pot against 2 other opponents than $42 in the pot against 6 other opponents. Also, calling $6 pre-flop when your opponent has AA is not a mistake. I'll do it all day long with almost ATC if we're deep.

This is true, which is part of why I raised more to try to thin the field, in particular the villain to my left as most of the rest of the table was only 1 buyin deep.

This line of thinking seems solid. In theory maybe c/r river w/ the nuts is better. In game though Id lead the nuts being too afraid hed be too afraid to bet his sets, and if he did bet hed bet too small and be able to find a fold when c/r'ed. Very interesting hand tho.

Very interesting hand. Here's some of my thoughts...

If I'm going to flat the flop raise, it would be with the intent of betting on any turn cards that didn't complete a straight or flush, and it would be a fairly large bet, probably the size of the pot. If he's still interested in the hand at that point I'd give him credit for a hand better than mine and would give up unless I improved.

When we get to the turn things change drastically. Obviously the flush draw comes in. I'd also be checking here. But I'm probably folding to his turn bet. The roughly 3:1 pot odds are tempting but we have at best 10 outs to beat a set. We've only got 9 outs against a straight, and a mere 7 against a made flush. In any of these cases I don't think we're getting a whole lot more in the pot if the fourth club hits the river. If he's got a flush it's probably a small to medium one. It was stated at the outset that the villian is good and perceives us as good. I don't see him flatting an UTG raise with KcXc here, since we're holding the ace. Almost no matter what he holds a fourth club on the river is going to kill any chance we have of getting paid off. We don't have the pot odds to draw and the only parlay that nets us anything on the river is if he's holding a set and we hit an A.

Check raising the turn as a semi bluff is a possibility, but our actual equity against any of his likely holdings is so low (16% vs a flush, 20% vs a straight, 22% vs a set) that you'd have to get him to fold a significant amount of the time for it to show a profit. There's roughly 415 in the pot after he bets the turn. If we made it something like 500 to go then the pot is 915 and it costs him 370 to call. If he's 100% going to give you credit for having a big flush at that point he should fold no matter what he's holding. If he's got some doubts, you are offering 2.5-1 odds for him to see the river, and with only 365 behind at this point probably zero chance of bluffing him out on blank river cards. Even worse if he shoves over your semi-bluff you aren't getting the right price to call your last 365 against a made flush, and are BARELY getting the right price to call either a straight or a set. Given our inability to make any more money on the river if we hit, coupled with the fact that his range is probably very strong here I just don't know if we get a fold often enough on the turn making any sort of reasonable bet. If we make the turn raise even larger it probably starts to look more like a semi-bluff than a value bet, and I'm not sure we gain any extra fold equity. Given all of this, I would probably fold the turn.

Grunching from the turn action -

My snap reaction on the turn is to check call, reevaluate river, though when I think a little more about it - is our hand too strong to turn into a bluff/semi-bluff in this spot?

Villain can easily how up with a small flush, a straight, 2p and fold to a c/r on the turn this deep. We KNOW villain doesn't have the nuts, and if we had the AcKc for example, would we not play the hand exactly the same up until this point? Of love to hear some other opinions, but I really do think we are folding out a decent amount of villains range that beats us by c/r'ing the turn.

The other train of thought I have with this line is that say villain is value betting a hand like JcJx, we retake the lead and, when he folds these hands sure were folding out worse, but we do avoid the awkward position of c/c all the way down OOP with what basically surmounts to a bluff catcher.

The only thing I'm still struggling with is whether or not we think our hand is too strong to turn into a bluff on the turn?

Cool hand bro


EDIT - read the results.

What a gross river! Dont think you can ever fold, especially given pot odds as villain can easily show up with a worse set, or be after some extra thin value with 68. I hate b/c, b/f or even c/r here. C/c all day long and sigh when he shows you the 97

Flop-i flat this deep (i know what people are saying but vs aggressive opponents I think this is fine unless they never do this with draws/air + if they do shutdown when they miss/get counterfeited you do have good showdown value for most hands that get to showdown.... I think I'd be cautious if he shows aggression later though)
Turn- c/c i guess c/r is cooler but idk if you get him off flushes so Ac doesn't mean enough to prob justify the c/r... I never have the balls to do it and if I did I think i'd be suprised by how often people overplay their hands to make it -EV (even some1 seen as a good villain)
River- I like b/f OTR just in case he would check behind a set or 2p or smth that he'll crying call I never think he r/rs with less as you have the ac blocker for almost all the hands he'd bluff with.

Just a thought, how about we chk/raise turn to 300, and shove any river. anyone like that play?

Grunched to this post.
When I read OP this is exactly what I thought when we have Ac.
He could be raising here with a set a FD and maybe sometimes just a straight draw(but unlikely).
If we want to be a sicko we can check/ship the river as we can easily show up with Ax. I feel like we would have played it the same way. By shipping here against this guy we're super polarized and being so deep I think it's hard for him to call here without 2nd or 3rd nuts.

My vote is be a sicko and check/ship otr.

Pre and flop are both fine. The turn is where things get gross.

After the flop check/raise, his range is sets, 2p, flush draws, straight draws, and combo draws. The turn bring one of the worst cards in the deck as now your hand is bluff catcher. You check and he makes a less than 1/2 PSB.

You have between 7 and 11 outs. You need about 25% equity to call and you have around 22% (weighted towards the higher end to account for bluffs). You can most likely make a value bet that makes up for the lost equity if you hit your flush, so calling is fine.

When you check the river and he bets again, you should realize that river is a brick. It might as well have been an offsuit J.

You should have folded the river.

EDIT:

I just read suggestions to check/ship the river. That would have been an awesome move too. I wouldn't have the guts to do it but it is def a solid choice.