this.

OP said villain seems str8 forward. If he thinks flop may go heads-up vs. shorty only (you fold)....why would he raise to almost* always get that result?

Basic hand-reading, no?

Don't fold. You are incredibly underrepped and V is an unknown with a big stack. As stated above, the flop action is much more consistent with an underset or 2pr than it is with an OESD or gutter. Your line is consistent with AA and KK hands that could pay off his sets. There is also the non-zero possibility that he's just running a crazy last hand bluff, because no one believes that the dude who just racked up is gonna do that.

I'm blown away that people are saying hero's hand is under repped. He checked flop as the PFR then cold called a large raise. No hands EXCEPT a set take this line. Villain isn't jamming 87 after hero check/cold calls a huge flop raise then calls a huge turn bet.

T9 or a set, and even if you subtract a quarter of the T9 combos it's still a losing call.

I don't understand why we're just c/c flop.... c/r flop and get value out of 88, 77, 87, and maybe Q8. He's likely not doing this as a semi-bluff vs short stack after you checked. His action screams value to me. c/r, get it in.

I think you give villain too much credit if he reads it that way.

Plus....LARGE RAISE>>>>.really?

AA, KK, QQ, AQ....even JJ, TT and 99 can do this.

Most people would raise a set either on the flop or on the turn. Hero's hand looks like AA or KK way more than it looks like QQ. (And V's hand looks a lot like a set or two pair.)

bet flop

Again, to reiterate......

+1

I disagree with most of your range above.

there are no QQ combo left

JJ-99 more likely call flop rather than put in an entire days work on the last hand of the day in a spot where hero has shown resistance.

The same idea for AA-KK, why slow play it pre when you have the perfect spot to raise it and get value "cuz I'm leaving so why not raise it up?"

I can buy AQ, but there are only 4 combos, and I don't know if villain will jam $700 on the river when we clearly are repping a hand as good if not better than AQ with our line.

uhhh, sorry if I misrepresent.... I was giving range of Hero after flop c/c

lol, ok makes more sense

But, just to play devil's advocate. JJ-99, doesn't hero more likely c-bet that range rather than c/c with a ss still left to act after main villain c/r?

AA-QQ I can see flatting to get the SS in, but there is more value in raising... <- already has been over stated.

We will have to wait to hear from OP about what hands he represents with a c/c. We have no reads on Hero after an hour of winning 2.5 BIs.

Solid well respected TAG obv. Is it ever anything else

Well, he could be a luckbox like me with no skillz

Flop check is good. You can account for 75% of the Q's. It's tough for people to have top pair. There aren't many straight draws or worse made hands to give you value. It's good to check and either a) allow other people to put money in, which is great, or b) let it check through and then bet turns, which can improve people to hands that pay you 2 good streets (especially A and K turns when villain(s) make top pair hands).

Top card sets are often checks on reasonably dry flops.

I like just calling the flop to encourage an over call from the other villain.

After the flop bet and raise, I like the turn check/call. Villain put in a large flop raise, we can let him keep firing. I think a large turn c/r might be too strong here, and a c/c is fine. I expect him to bet the turn so often with this line. If I didn't expect that, I'd lead myself. And even so, there's definitely a case for leading yourself anyway. We can get stacks in with bets, so betting can't be bad. In fact, sure, we probably should lead. Only really compelling reasons to have just called flop were a) to encourage over calls and b) to avoid scaring off the main villain who raised. Once we get to the turn, we can certainly lead ourselves.

Only definite change I would make to your line is that I would shove the river myself.

I think villain almost always has a strong made hand, but he could check river behind with some value hands (especially 87). He's going to call it off, imo, and this is a textbook spot where you should prefer to make the bet yourself rather than call it. Point being, yes, we don't have the nuts, but if we check, we still have to check/call. Checking to villain allows villain to sometimes check behind with hands that will call hero's bet while we still have to call it off whenever he bets his stronger not-checking-back range.

By the way, you're never, ever folding here. What you need to do is make the most +EV decisions.

I think your line is pretty good, I would just consider leading turn and definitely make the river bet ourselves.

River a b/f, willy?

Nah, not a chance.

Best line is prolly bet/call 225-250 on turn, shove river.

As played, I think we can just ship river.

If villain wants to hero fold 87, well, OK, but I think he does call with that hand a decent enough % of the time, and I think if we check, he could just check that behind some decent % of the time anyway. And if he is going to bet with it, then he'd likely snap with it, too.

If you did bet less than all-in on the river, it'd be a bet/call. You'll be getting > 5:1.

not sure he can call a river push from us, willy. Looks too much like QQ that makes 88,77 pause imo. I dunno...would AA ever push here as it looks SOO much like a set from villain?

bet small to induce, maybe.

I really hope that OP pegged villain as someone that will lead river as played. THEN we can push over if needed. If we have some semblance that villain will bet river, then check is best. And if we hand read correctly, villain puts us on AA/KK and WILL bet; we in turn push over top because, well, he's got to have a lower set as played. This is almost never the nuts and never (gasp) the second nuts.

edit add for clarity? How many times at 1/2 do you see a thinking player try to pot control AA OOP?

BTW, I'm thinking Hero folded to the push.

If villains fold sets on rivers... lets open bluff shove all the time.

In fact, look back at the OP hand, but this time pretend hero has 43o... shove river to get V to fold sets?

I agree with Willy, aside from his use of the term "as played."

This logic makes sense with eff. stacks of 50-100BB and stacks easily go in by the river. Hero and villain are over 500BB deep. Hero needs to swing for the fences with top set.

Keep in mind hero raised preflop. When the preflop raiser checks the flop then overcalls, any halfway thinking player will know hero smashed it. The HJ figured it out and folded. I'm shocked villain doesn't check back the turn. Normally, hero leaves a lot of money on the table and doesn't win villain's stack playing a passive line oop.

I was agreeing with this.

Yeah, I'd lead turn.

I think you have hammer hitting nail, NGE. Swing for the Fences.....winning stacks.....is all well and good (and "easy") if we are playing a 100-200BB game. We (2+2) often say get it in for stacks....on X hand. On this hand alone, villain pops the turn for 100BB. If we are playing with a 'normal' stack.....YeeHawww TOP SET!

I have been talking here about the river As Played.

It all worked out for Hero....but if we go back to the flop, I am with Willy and can check the flop as Hero did here. I may even call villain's raise....but likely to 4! (with my rockets) as the true nature of villain's raise will be clear with his response. He's not folding a set. He's not folding 2 pair. He's folding his str8 draw and that is not a great result. He folds all his other nonsense...but you probably won't get anything more from your "rockets" if he was bluffing.

But I definitely lead the turn. It is what I would do with AA as well. From there we assume villain 3! our turn lead......and the money gets there imo. Smart money is to leave a pot size for the river if we can't get it all in on the turn of course. Depends on villain's 3! sizing....but I wouldn't go too far on the turn....but hopefully lead the horse to water if possible.

The two interesting spots to me are (1) Should we 4! the flop and (2) As Played, do we call a villain push on a rivered 7 or 8? I say this because I am totally convinced that villain has a set on the flop. The T9 is a MUBS problem.