Hero: 20s aggro player, has been pretty active in the last hour picking up a lot of playable hands and winning some small and medium pots with bluffs, probably has loose image currently. covers table, monster stacking at like 1k

Villain: late 20s early 30s white guy reg, familiar with hero and knows hero is familiar with him as well. super ultra mega nit. im talking never plays a hand unless hes raising (and doesnt even do that often), will fold in the small blind for 1 more dollar with queen 10 offsuit, the type of guy who exploits the fact that in 1/2 you dont need to be balanced against fish at all. but he's a good player and knows how to value and play his hands properly. stack ~350


Hero holds A A in the small blind.

Villain opens to 8 from EP, gets 1 caller from MP, folds to Hero who 3-bets to 27. folds back to Villain who calls, other player folds, heads up to the flop.

(65) flop J J 10

Hero checks to Villain for some balance and to offer him the opportunity to bluff with the rare draw or think that QQ/KK is the best hand / pot control against Jx holdings, although Villain would probably check back a draw. Villain does take the lead, bets 30. Hero calls

(125) turn 10

Hero checks to Villain, not loving the turn as we're losing to a lot of stuff now and Villain is never showing up with a draw if he bets again, only a boat or very rare QQ/KK putting Hero on some kind of big combo draw that he'll call with. Villain bets, but only bets 35. This small sizing gives Hero the chance to still put Villain on that marginal hand targeting a draw, definitely not loving my hand anymore but for 35 I feel like I have to call so I do.

(195) turn A

Hero suddenly has aces full and knows Villain probably couldn't immediately put him on that but if Villain had QQ/KK he would be folding to any lead out
here anyway, and a 10 might check back but a jack or quads would bet. So Hero checks, and Villain does bet, 75, and he only has 150 behind. Hero? How can we get called by worse here against such a tight opponent, he has to know that if we make any reraise right now we're never bluffing him here. even a jack-x hand might fold giving respect to AJ, AA, or quad 10s, we've seen this guy make hero folds in similar spots before where we thought he might just be committed.

Hero ultimately ends up deciding on just flat calling the 75, because this particular player might even just fold a jack-x hand to a value jam here, except ace-jack but the problem is we double block ace jack so he would need the last ace in the deck. there's two combos of ace-jack we get value from (and actually he might have folded A J to my 3-bet pre), but there's also one combo of quad 10s and one combo of quad jacks that we're value towning ourself against, and he would play both of those hands the exact same way in regards to sizing wondering what the heck he's getting value from. The both fortunate and unfortunate part of this hand is that he did not have either of the quads but had exactly A J , the one main hand that we could definitely get value from. Do you agree with my decision-making here or should we have just taken the open 50-50 on 2 combos of ace jack vs 2 combos of quads and jammed and just hoped he would call with the jack-x hands sometimes to make it a profitable jam?

First off, raise larger preflop - anywhere for 32-35 is good.
The answer really depends on what you think his UTG raising and 3bet calling range is. I don't hate your decision if your read is right that he will fold all jacks and only call with AJ or quads and he only has 1 combo of AJ. Against most players, I would absolutely raise the river here for value. The pertinent question here is, does villain have any other Jx in his range? Given your description: "super ultra mega nit", I don't think he's raising any KJ or QJ suited EP preflop, maybe not even AJ off. You say "EP". What was his specific position? UTG, UTG+1, UTG+2 etc.. How many players was he opening into? You should include this information so we can get a better idea of his range.

If you think there are any KJ/QJ/10J in his range, you should certainly raise the river for value as there are more combos that you beat than you lose to. If you think he'll fold this part of his range to a shove, you could try min-raising him: is he really going to fold a bare J getting almost 6 to 1 on his money?

There are many problematic aspects with your line but check/calling river is by far the worst, mandatory all in bet, you only lose to quads and are still less than 200bbdeep

Stop overthinking.

Your thoughts should be:

-I have the nut full on a double paired board
-Man that cocktail waitress has a nice rack
-I am all in

+1. OP, seems to me like youre overanalyzing and overthinking this spot a quite lot.

You have the top boat, just pile allin and if youre running into quads youre running into quads. It happens that you run into the top of peoples ranges from time to time, we cant stop going for obvious value for that matter.

You have the nuts dude, pile it in.

Fold turn

Check-shove riv

You gotta be kidding me

Wow, this is probably the most inelastic board ever. Just open shove the river, you will make far more over time with this. I'm kinda sad that this is a post.

Wow... so you said AJ is the one hand you are getting value from. This is incorrect. Villain might (and this is no certainty) fold tens full. But villain is highly unlikely to fold jacks full, and if you run into quads that's just a cooler. Of course, AJ will pay you off too, but that was not as likely for villain to hold. You absolutely need to raise here.

With your image, are you sure villain would fold KK, QQ, 99, Jx, or Tx? You said that villain was competent and you were seen as loose. Even if your range assignment of villain is correct, raising is still break even. You need to raise here.

If he is ultra nit as read was then probably just check fold the turn after he bets out on the flop and then bets the turn.
Yeah he could have QQ/KK here but a ultra nit isnt really going to be betting the turn that often with these hands if you check called the flop.
River am raising this and not even thinking about it, Jx is rarely folding this, Tx can find a fold, and I cant see QQ/KK 3 barreling after the ace comes in the river.
Am guess from this post that he showed up with quads

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He showed up with AJs.

And yea pretty easy raise for value here, you out leveled yourself here.