My apologies if this hand is not formatted properly. 1/2 hand from Mohegan Sun.

Villain is 20 something Asian kid just sat down and posts big blind with $300 stack and I cover. I am in SB. 2 limpers and I complete with 6 8. Villain raises to $10. EP and MP call and so do I. Pot is $40.

Pot $40. Flop comes 59 K. Villain bets $40, EP and MP fold and I call.

Pot $120. Turn is the 6 and villain bets $100. Hero?

We don't have the odds to chase. And stacks aren't deep enough/turn card isn't good enough to semibluff c/r.

Easy fold.

Hold on, judge.

Unless he has KK, we can have up to 17 outs: 2x6, 3x8, 4x7, 8x spade (not including 7). With 46 cards outstanding, we're 29:17, which is 1.7:1 and we're getting 2.2:1. Against his range, we don't have the full outs, but we also have at least some implied odds.

I think we have to call here. If we had any FE, it would be a jam, but I think here we're better off keeping the last $150 to get some value on the river.

Villain's got half his stack left; how do we not have fold equity?

If villain is a thinking player, then what hands of yours do you think villain's bet sizing is trying to get value from?

The turn bet just looks like "my squeeze didn't work, stupid 1-2... my c-bet didn't work on this one hanger on... it's checked to me which looks weak, better just bet near pot." He doesn't have to have a pair to be taking this line.

He could have AsQs, and then you are ahead.

I say stick it in.

(If by some bizarre twist he just sat down and hit top set, and he's just a drooler betting $100 because "I haz top set" that does suck. In that case, just try to hit a 7 or a spade and otherwise chalk it up to a cooler. )

Fair point. We have some fold equity.

But we'd be offering him a $150 call to win $470, which I don't think gives us a lot of FE. I think that money would be more profitable increasing our IO if we hit. With a call, pot will be $320 and we can offer any odds we want.

I haven't done the spreadsheet to figure this out, so I could be wrong. And obviously it depends on V's river calling tendencies.

I like calling turn and on favorable rivers donking.

Nobody at 1/2 bet/folds $100 OTT for $150 more FFS.

Just fold OP. He has AK or better. No need of playing guessing games and putting him on lol, AQ. His sizing is pretty strong to be bluffy.

"Win" being the operative word. His turn sizing looks bluffy and his range looks wide.

Shoving now could even fold out some pocket pairs that currently have us beat and over card hands that could out draw us. Because of the pre-flop action, you can have all sorts of 2 pair hands yourself.

If you call and a blank comes, and it goes check check, him rolling over 77 is a disaster.

These New England 1/2 games are tougher than you might think, momo. Yeah, sometimes even the young Asian kid has it....

A fold is better than a call, perhaps. But if you are going to fold in spots like this, you shouldn't be playing 86s out of position to a 3 bet to begin with. Are you calling pre hoping to flop the nuts, or a perfect draw on a board with no overcards? Good luck with that!

I was with family and I knew they wanted to leave so I figured I would just gamble it up after playing the usual 1-2 style of just betting for value and folding sh** like this preflop.

I check raised all in and I figured he had KQ + but I figured I was betting $250 to win $370 so I was getting about 1.5/1 and figured I had 16 or 17 outs. In retrospect I had no fold equity as he had AA and snap called.

Figured a thinking player would have to at least think about what I had as my CR is repping a draw or something that beats AK which is the same as AA here IMO. 78 gets there 56 is a possibility and sets.

I Never play a high variance game at 1-2 for reasons like this. Everyone at the table was like wow Aces of course you can't beat that as the Jack of clubs fell on the river and I bricked out on my draws. Thnx for the replies and if I was to replay I would just fold the turn cus I think fold > shove > call.

Poker is still alive at low stakes. Majority of table was absolutely clueless and pretty much took down a bunch of small pots prior to this hand without much resistance.

hand would have been much more interesting at 5/10 with 250 BBs. Thnx for the replies.

have you ever done any equity calculation?
I challenge you to come up with a realistic simulation where we don´t have the odds to call here.

edit: saw results, fold>shove>call is wrong, OP. how did you come to that conclusion?

No, I play intuitively and if V is value-heavy here like most 1/2 players, we are definitely not in good shape. We have 9 flush outs, 3 straight outs, 2 trip outs and 3 two pair outs at best, i.e. 17x2=34% and $100 to call and ZERO implied odds a lot of the time.

I don't think our hand is face up at all. He had the A which made me question his snap call but I highly doubt he even considered that.

C/c twice on a draw heavy board is always a FD. You wouldn't c/c 2p or better here EVER.

What do you mean by he snapcalled A? Did you c/shove turn? What did he have?

if we got 34%, why would we not call if we get over 2:1?

I probably fold to the raise preflop. I don't want to be out of position against an unknown 150bb deep here.

Don't think you can fold the turn. You have 17 outs to beat 1 pair hands which is villains most likely holding. Or he could just be barreling AQ or AJ or 77.

Question is whether to ship or flat. I think against most players I ship. Let's try to figure out how often villain needs to fold.

EV(shove) = P(fold)*220 + (1-P(fold))(P(win|call)*370 - P(lose|call)*250)

I'm on my phone so can't precisely range V and calculate our exact equity when called but would make an educated guess it's around 30% so P(win|call)*370 = 111 and P(lose|call). *250 = 175. So the break-even point for V's folding frequency is found setting

0 = P(fold)*220 + (1-P(fold))(P(win|call)*370 - P(lose|call)*250)

0 = P(fold)*220 + (1-P(fold))(-64)

0 = 220P(fold) +64P(fold) -64

64 = 284P(fold)

P(fold) = 64/284 = .2253

I think in practice V is folding well over 1 in 4 times so shipping it is perfectly acceptable. Whether it's better than calling I'm not sure as it requires more math and effort than I'm willing to invest at the moment to calculate the EV of that line.


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Well, shucks. He'd have to have exactly AA to be betting $100 to extract max value from Kx, which is what he called expecting you to have, I guess.

Try to have a set next time.

I gave V a range of TT+, AJs+, AQ+, KQ for a raise out of the BB. That's a pretty tight range, but I think it's reasonable. I further assumed that he was taking this line only with TP+. That leaves him with only KK+ and KQ+. Super tight.

We're 35% against that range, a bit less than 17/46; that's expected given that some of our outs are no good against some of his range.

It turns out if he folds even 13% of the time...
13% * $220 = $29
87% * (35% * $370 - 65% * $250) = 87% * ($130 - $163) = 87% * -$33 = -$29
and we're breakeven. Now, against a range that consists exclusively of TP+, he might not have any folds, in which case shoving costs about -$33. If he'd fold, say, all his KQ, he's folding a third of his range and shoving is way good. (I think it's unlikely he's folding that much.)

If we call and hit, we'll be somewhere between a 91% favorite (for an 8 or 6) and 100% favorite (for a non-spade 7). Let's say we're 92% overall, just to be conservative. Let's also assume that if we bink and lose we're going to get stacked (probably a reasonable assumption if we're going for IO).

So if we bink, we're going to $220 + IO 92% of the time and lose $250 8% of the time.

For IO = 0, $220 * 92% - $250 * 8% = $182. 35% of that is $64.
When we whiff, we lose $100. EV is 65% * -$100 = $-65.

So with $0 IO, we lose $1 by calling.

$50 in IO gives us EV $15. $100 in IO gives us EV $31. $150 in IO gives us EV $47. We're clearly not getting $150 every time. Let's say we get it 2/3 the time, in which case our EV is around $31.

He'd have to fold 25% of the time for shoving to have an EV of $30.

I don't think he's folding a quarter of his range here. But it's highly V dependent. Some V's can have a lot of bluffs in their range. If V is bluffy, shoving is way better. Less chance for implied odds against the weaker range; more chance for him to fold.

If V has few bluffs, calling is better. Less chance he'll fold and more chance for IO against his strong range.

Shove is fine. He has AA. W/e. Doesn't mean he doesn't sometimes have AQ and snap fold or KJ and tank fold or a hundred other hands some of which he folds some of which he calls.

Get over what the table thinks. They don't know how to do equity calculations.

Can't tell you how often I get it in otf with like 17 outs and lose to TP only for the table to think the other guy made a fantastic call. He calls the bottom of my shoving range and holds up. W/e. Standard.

Same thing here. Your turn shoves include much stronger hands here like sets (or should anyway). Villain is rolling the dice calling with aces. We can't just give him a walk when we have such significant equity.

And you had a lot of equity here. Even if his range is 100 percent top pair and he never folds the shove is a 20 dollar mistake. But in fact he folds sometimes. As I showed earlier, depending exactly what our equity when called is, we only need him to fold like 1 time in 4, possibly more like 1 time in 6. Villains absolutely will fold more than that here so you're fine.

Well played hand IMO, except I probably fold preflop after the raise, but it's marginal. But once you called you are absolutely fine .


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Thanks for all the well thought out responses and the math Shai and Case.

very nice post!

I don't think he is folding 25% of the time here after firing $100 of his $250 stack on the turn, so I like calling here.

I think you played it well op


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V is 20 something asian kid.. thats me! Raise to 250 which is effectively putting him all in anyways.. expect to get called and pray he doesn't have a higher flush draw or for the 7 of spades cha ching get the money baby

expect to get called, pray he doesn´t have a higher flushdraw, so I guess that means pray we don´t wanna see the hand we beat.

You are right, I misread the hand, forgot we hit the 6 on the turn.. Which is ironic because makes shoving an even better play. If we take an extra couple of minutes, construct a realistic range of hands for V in this spot, and put it in a equity simulator over 500,000 hands, you will see shoving is the most profitable play. We realize all our fold equity (we sometimes get V to fold better like AK), and when he does call with sets/higher flush draws/hands that are ahead we will always have couple clean outs to the nuts.

Folding in this spot can't be too much of a mistake either but in my opinion its too weak. If you aren't going to push small edges like this then consider folding 86s in the SB. I think given V's sizing on flop and turn call is the worst option because you will be put into a very bad spot in the river when you miss and have 3rd or 4th pair, basically nut low

how can calling turn be the worst option when we got a clear mathematical +ev call?