1/2 game early on a Thursday evening. This particular table has been open for about an hour. Both V and I sat down at the new game together.

Hero: 30 y/o white guy. Been playing snug, but not nitty. Image should be solid. Haven't shown down anything yet. Dealers recognize me as a reg. $325ish

V: Late 20's-Early 30's white guy. He has the look of someone who is very comfortable at a card table. When the game opened, he immediately sat on my left. Could be coincidence? Or maybe he thought I had the look of a good player? Around $300.

A couple hands before the hand in question, I raised to $12 with KQo. Cbet the A-high flop, called in one spot. Other guy checks turn, I check. He bets smallish on the river, and I fold.

OTTH...Hero dealt JJ in CO. One limp to Hero who makes it $12. V is button and instantly makes it $30. I flat.

At the time, I had nothing concrete to back this up, but I didn't feel his 3-bet range was solely QQ+. Based on the previous hand, he probably thought my preflop raising range was fairly wide. I elected to call.

Flop ($65): 9c, 9h, 2c. I check, V bets $20. I call.

This bet confused me, as I was expecting $35-45 range. I though he may clubs, a pocket pair or AK, etc. I elected to call and reevaluate the turn.

Turn ($105): Jd

Hero? Stacks are roughly $250ish. How do we proceed from here?

V isn't double barrelling overcards here unless he has the nfd probably, I bet small here (35ish) expecting to get raised by qq-aa, and occasionally having overcards spas out.

If raised, tank call and c/ship river.

I would c/r all-in on the turn. I would expect a call from QQ-AA. If he's got AK, maybe he checks behind and catches an A or K on the river. He didn't gain a whole lot of information about our hand from his ridiculous $20 bet on the flop. We'd probably call that with pocket 8s.

It's a pretty clear c/c again, allowing him to continue to vb AA-QQ and barrel air. The more aggro villain is, the better c/c becomes and the worse taking any aggressive action on the turn becomes.

River?

This x100. The optimal play here is to CR turn. If he doesn't have the overpair, he will likely check behind, giving him a chance to hit a pair. If he has it, he'll bet and you check raise to get max value (I don't like check calling because any club, ace or king can kill your action). Also checking turn gives him a last chance to bluff

I would check/call the turn in this spot.

Villain's flop bet sizing could be a couple of different things. I know I sometimes size my c-bets this way on flops similar to this (i.e. paired/super dry), though typically without flush draws. He could also size the flop bet this way with good hands (e.g. KK) to induce.

I think because of villain's bet size that his range is likely polarized here to {QQ+, Random 9X that he 3!} and {Air (likely including his ace highs)}. I may be assuming too much based on the info you've given but I wouldn't expect villain to have a medium-strength hand like 88/TT here. Is this villain's first threebet that you've seen?

Based on this, I think the risk of villain checking back the turn with a hand that would also call a turn lead is minimal. He'll likely bet all his good stuff and possibly bluff with his bad stuff.

I don't really like check-raising the turn here. What do you think villain would think your range is for check-raising this turn? What might he think your range is for check-calling the turn?

I think the river play could be interesting depending on what villain does on the turn.

This is live poker. Even if he reads you for trips or a boat, most villains will still call off with QQ+. In addition there are nine flush cards that can kill your action (20% of the deck) and any non flush ace or king as well (~14% of the deck)

Another way of looking at this is if you had air, do you think he would fold QQ+ to your check shove very often??? He's either calling wayyyy too often or never folding and likely never folding

can we get $30 to look like a blocking bet? We're not getting much more from AK and worse, let's target the overpairs.

Thanks for all the replies so far.

I'm going to show V's turn action, and then later I'll post the end results.

Turn ($105): Jh ***This an edit from my OP. The turn put two flush draws on board. I check, V bets $40.

Hero?

V has $210 behind.

CR turn to $110. This gives him about 3.5:1 In immediate odds so he will think he is priced in if he has a hand like AKhh, AQcc. Also you build a pot and pot commit QQ+ on river.

Against really good hand readers just check shove and hope they level themselves

My personal experience has been that most villains won't call off with QQ+ against me, but that probably has something to do with my demeanor at the table.

In my mind, I look at the probability that he has those hands and will call vs the probability that I can represent a busted flush on the river when it bricks and get a call from a hand like 77, or even AK.

What do people want to do if they interpret $40 into a $105 pot as a blocking bet to avoid facing significant river action where you think villain wants to charge draws and plans on checking behind on the river unimproved?

yeah, your check gives him the option to make that small-ish bet, which could perhaps be expected considering his small preflop and flop bets. now for you to get chips in you have to make a move that could presumably get him off of a big pair. i guess that's an argument for leading the turn and jamming the river. from his line i would be inclined to assume he might be as experienced as it initially seemed.

I don't think a c/r on the turn accomplishes much at all. Would you ever do this with a naked/semi-bluff, and have you shown this at the table? From your description at this point no. A c/r here tells him you have a boat or a 9; I think only the fishiest players call off with overpairs here. I'd check/call turn and bet river.

Unless V is an idiot he should know c/r with that sizing and leaving $100 back is just always a boat...

I'm not c/r all-in here. We fold out way too many hands. Even a weak 9 will think about folding. We are pretty much only getting called by 99.

I would prefer a same bet 30, calling all raises.

Thanks for all the replies.

After V bet $40, I check raised to $90. He called quickly. I'm trying to build a pot in anticipation of shoving the river.

River ($285): Ah. I shove my last $167. V thinks 5-10 seconds, and folds the 9d face up. He later said he had 10d9d. I puke. Didn't think he'd fold trips after 1/2 his stack was already in the pot. So mad at myself.

I guess my hand was too face up..? I'm thinking the best play was to lead the turn and lead the river.

Poker is dead. People folding trips. Insane.

I had someone correctly fold middle set face up on a dry board last session to a 1/2 pot river bet. WTF. Never seen that before in LLSNL.

V sounds like a good player. Basically, all he had was a bluff catcher after the river shove. You're range is severely polarized. Either:

1. You've got a better 9.
2. You've got a boat
3. You're bluffing

You don't find many players at $1/2 who will bluff raise the turn and then shove the river. So, he made a good laydown.

Obviously, there's a lot of different lines you could take to get paid if you knew his exact hole cards, but it's tough to play this hand like V's got a 9. If you led the turn and V folded, you'd probably be kicking yourself for not checking.

Like I said, c/r turn small shove river on that board is always a boat. I would have folded turn or river in his spot too. C/shove gets you paid off way more often.