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| Live Low-stakes NL Discussion of up to 3/5 live no-limit, pot-limit and spread-limit Texas Hold'em poker games, situations and strategies. |
07-02-2012, 02:19 PM
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#1
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centurion
Join Date: Jul 2009
Posts: 153
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1/2 - Flopped FH - Missed value?
Villain: Upper 40's, heavy-set, wearing a tee-shirt with a dragon on it. Limps a lot of hands from all positions (up to AQs). Pretty much fit or fold post flop, but loves to chase draws. His read on me is completely inaccurate (figures me as a maniac, see below), and i can sense hes targeting my stack.
History: Sat down with $200 and ran flopped straight into turned FH. Spent the next 45 min just gambling the remaining $40 I had, trying to run it up. Was well prepared to re-buy but figured I would just have fun short stacking for a couple laps.
Ran it up after shoving J7s into a pot where I was going to get 4:1 on my money. Hit straight.
Couple laps later raise JJ on the BTN to $30 (because of table image) and get 4 callers including Villain. Flop comes 10 X X (r). Villain leads out for $50- and hes never doing this oop with set, folds around to me. I raise to $125. He flats. Turn is a blank. He checks, I shove for 140 more. He snap calls me. I figure he had A10 here, and I take down his pot. Look on his face when I flip Jacks says "well I guess even fish get good hands sometimes" - I laugh a little inside
Hand:
Villain Stack: $700ish
Hero Stack: $550ish
Villain UTG: limps
UTG+3: Makes it $7
C0 - Calls $7
Hero- Calls $7 with 89s
SB - Folds
BB - Calls $7
Villain: calls $7
Flop: 889 - $36
Checks to hero - hero bets $13
Villain is the only caller
Pot - $62
Turn: 6
Villain: Checks
Hero: Bets $35
Villain: Raises to $75
At this point im positive he has made his straight. Does not have overs (might limp call a hand like 10s but would would open post flop on this board), would fold 66 on flop, very hard for him to have 99 here.
Hero: Flats
Should I be raising big here (instead of flatting), considering I know this guy is going to pay me off? How much?
However, I flat, thinking he will donk into me on the river and I can raise him big there - which he wont be able to escape from.
Pot - $212
River: (the worst card) a second 6
Villain: checks
Hero Bets $115 - a number i think he will call with his straight with, against me.
Villain: mini-tanks and calls
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07-02-2012, 02:23 PM
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#2
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Oberbiergenießer
Join Date: Dec 2007
Location: In warehouse playing against ZZ Top
Posts: 4,787
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Re: 1/2 - Flopped FH - Missed value?
Yes, raise turn. If you are sure he made a straight, I might just shove here for max FOS image. Prob not though, I prob raise smaller (say $200) and snap off his shove.
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07-02-2012, 02:30 PM
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#3
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The Situation
Join Date: Nov 2009
Posts: 559
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Re: 1/2 - Flopped FH - Missed value?
As deep as you are, if your read is correct, you must raise the turn.
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07-02-2012, 03:16 PM
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#4
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veteran
Join Date: Sep 2005
Location: Value-owning myself with 3rd pair
Posts: 2,462
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Re: 1/2 - Flopped FH - Missed value?
Wow. This is pretty much a textbook example of slowplaying costing you huge money. I can't think of any conceivable reason for flatting the turn. His CR shows major strength and he's convinced you're a maniac so there's no way he's ever laying down a made straight or 8 here, but he might if a disaster card (such as a 6, 7, 9, or the case 8) comes on the river and in any case, we're deep enough that we can't get it all in without him leading out or him CRing, which we can't count on because our calling the CR signifies that we're at least kind of for real this hand so he may slow down.
Make it $185, obviously call any shove, shove any river if he calls.
As played shove the river. Yes it's an overbet, but I think his having an 8 here is every bit as likely as the straight, which we beat and which he's never folding for any price. It's not set in stone that he folds the straight here either, given our image, and the fact that a shove looks pretty FOS.
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07-02-2012, 03:27 PM
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#5
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journeyman
Join Date: May 2012
Location: Oklahoma
Posts: 223
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Re: 1/2 - Flopped FH - Missed value?
Given V's description and you're image I'm raising the turn. Fit or fold check-raises. In LLSNL not many V's are laying down a hand they are willing to check raise with with.
I like raising to 175-225 and stacking off on the river. Given your image you might be able to get it on the turn before the 6 even comes.
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07-02-2012, 03:46 PM
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#6
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journeyman
Join Date: Apr 2010
Posts: 306
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Re: 1/2 - Flopped FH - Missed value?
Raise turn. Shove it. Get it in now. There are scare cards coming. I wouldn't say you cost yourself ~ $325, bc he's folding some. But it likely cost you half of that (for the ~50% of the time you're getting a call to a shove OTT)
Also, I absolutely love reading these posts where we play poorly or get coolered and take advantage of his new table image. I only wish it worked for me more often.
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07-02-2012, 03:52 PM
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#7
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old hand
Join Date: Mar 2012
Posts: 1,317
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Re: 1/2 - Flopped FH - Missed value?
i might bet a little more on the flop, given your image, 22 or something.
as far as your plan, calling turn and raising river since he wont be able to escape, that´s pretty bad thinking.
if i check call the flop, check raise the turn, bet big on the river when a blank hits and all of the sudden villain shoves on me, i would be snapfolding a str8 or even 66. no one ever bluffs in a spot like this in LLSNL.
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07-02-2012, 03:53 PM
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#8
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Carpal \'Tunnel
Join Date: Sep 2007
Location: China
Posts: 17,331
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Re: 1/2 - Flopped FH - Missed value?
Bet a lot more on the flop. There's several straight draws and you get value from several pairs as well.
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07-02-2012, 05:39 PM
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#9
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centurion
Join Date: Jul 2009
Posts: 153
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Re: 1/2 - Flopped FH - Missed value?
Thanks for responses guys. I knew immediately I had made a mistake, but was curious how bad it was to flat turn when I know if a non scare card comes I am def getting his stack. As for shoving river as played, he never calls so what should bet sizing be?
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07-02-2012, 05:57 PM
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#10
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The Situation
Join Date: Nov 2009
Posts: 559
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Re: 1/2 - Flopped FH - Missed value?
Quote:
Originally Posted by Inishul
Thanks for responses guys. I knew immediately I had made a mistake, but was curious how bad it was to flat turn when I know if a non scare card comes I am def getting his stack. As for shoving river as played, he never calls so what should bet sizing be?
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Like you said, as much as you think he'd call with his straight. You would have a better feel than anyone else.
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07-02-2012, 06:13 PM
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#11
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adept
Join Date: Oct 2009
Location: Earth
Posts: 750
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Re: 1/2 - Flopped FH - Missed value?
It doesn't matter a ton but I lead flop bigger. If opponent is ever a thinking player that 1/3 PSB is worse than polar, like unilateral. No one's ever doing it as a bluff into 5 other opponents, it's almost always begging to be called. 1/2 - full PSB disguises your hand and builds a pot.
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07-02-2012, 10:25 PM
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#12
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Carpal \'Tunnel
Join Date: Aug 2008
Location: SI, NY
Posts: 11,255
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Re: 1/2 - Flopped FH - Missed value?
Make it $115 total, watch half of the table stupidly erupt insisting that "it has to be double", wait for tensions to rise, followed by dealer confirming that your raise is in fact legal. Wait while your annoyed opponent shoves on you (awesome) or calls (inflating the pot, setting up easy river value town).
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07-05-2012, 04:51 PM
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#13
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adept
Join Date: Aug 2010
Posts: 850
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Re: 1/2 - Flopped FH - Missed value?
$20 on flop.
$40 on turn. As played, when he raises, you have to 3bet. There's just no good reason to flat. $130 is good.
I'm not sure how you can be "positive" that he has a straight on turn. The only straights out there are 107 and 57. How often do you think villain limp-calls 107 and 57 utg?
I think 107s is in his range, but a very small part. 57 is a stretch.
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