I can go either way pre and I completely understand why you didn't 3bet, but you must bet now. $30 looks about right.

I'm not sure if 3b or calling is best and I'm not sure how others can auto advise to 3b without additional info. Not one person has done an analysis of EV in each scenario (3b or not). Remember the raise came from the button so there is very little dead money (just the limps).

Rather the arguments for 3 betting seem to involve 2 approaches:

1) Take it down now (i.e. afraid to take a flop)
2) Thin the field (afraid to play multi-way)

I concede that playing Jacks multi way OOP is hard. But that doesn't mean clicking buttons is the way to make it "less hard" or that it is optimal

+1

I mean 3betting cant be bad, but I would probably do so on the smaller side, like $25-$30 as I expect villain to 4bet QQ+ and flat all worse, which would make it easier to play.

This is the other nice thing about donking, as you're really under-representing your hand. For most of the population, a donk represents a top pair type hand or a draw. If they had a set, they'd look to check raise. So, people don't think you have a set if you donk.

When I flop a set OOP, my default move is donking approximately pot size. I need a very good reason not to take that line, such as having the PFR directly to my left with several people in between us, and an ace high board I think smacks the PFR's range.

This is one of those spots where a lot of people auto check to the PFR without even thinking about it. Taking 10 seconds to think about it makes this a very clear lead.

So Hero leads $25, V1 folds, V2 folds, V3 Calls

Turn ($90): J96 4

Hero???

Bet again, I make it $60-$70

I feel like when you bet 55-75 on the turn this is almost never a flat call by V3, its either a fold or a raise..... Which makes me question the correct play here against this villain.

You have a way ahead/way behind hand here.

The biggest decision here for me... Would be does V3 think I could bet a FD on the flop? And if doesnt think I have the flush is he the type of the player to represent a flush by raising here?

Those two answers would dictate my turn action.

if you have AK on an A77r board you´re either way ahead or way behind.
in this situation you are never way ahead or way behind vs reasonable ranges.

V has some calls ott, with worse (and some better) and hand vs range it's more SA/SB.

But more importantly, I think this hand does well to clearly illustrate how critical heros sizing is as it ties to EV, particularly at the tops of ranges in stack off spots where small mistakes are far more expensive than usual.

V Heading to the turn...
Player 1: 81.1% 81.1% 0% [JhJs]
Player 2: 18.9% 18.9% 0% {99, 66, AcAs, AcAh, AdAc, KcKs, KcKh, KdKc, QcQs, QcQh, QdQc, AJs, AcQc+, AcTc, Ac8c-Ac2c, KQs, KTs, KsJs, KhJh, KdJd, QTs, J9s, T8s, 87s, 7c6c, 6c5c, AcJs, AcJh, AcJd, KQo}

V turn continuing range...
Player 1: 53.9% 53.9% 0% [JhJs]
Player 2: 46.1% 46.1% 0% {99, 66, AcAs, AcAh, AdAc, KcKs, KcKh, KdKc, QcQs, QcQh, QdQc, AcQc+, AcTc, Ac8c-Ac5c, Ac3c-Ac2c, KcQc, KcTc, QcTc, J9s, Tc8c, 7c6c, 8c7c, 6c5c, AcJs, AcJh, AcJd}

Vs gii range > JJ
Player 1: 22.3% 22.3% 0% [JhJs]
Player 2: 77.7% 77.7% 0% {AcQc+, AcTc, Ac8c-Ac5c, Ac3c-Ac2c, KcQc, KcTc, QcTc, Tc8c, 8c7c, 7c6c, 6c5c}

When V elects to shove this subset of nutted hands, via 25-call, pot (90)-shove, hero needs ~31% to call but falls well short around 22% as an unfortunate result of betting too little (25) for eff stacks on the flop. Even a PSB on a bad turn (which is reasonable sizing considering hero is immediately repping polarized equity donking flop) isnt enough to overcome the sizing mistake earlier in the hand.

If hero takes a line of 40/120, it moves the needle to a much more reasonable 25% call off, which against the very top of Vs range in a vacuum isn't +EV. However, against his whole turn continuing range, it pushes everything into +EV as V will often make more expensive calling mistakes, in addition to having a touch of FE against his weak flushes.

We are the 2-3%

For the record, 3 limps, a raise to 10, and the blinds, there's $19 to be won pre.

If you think V3 is only calling with JJ+/AK, that's 3%, that's insane. And if he never changes his pfr sizing, we can take "good" out of the "good reg" descriptor.

Again not necessarily a reason to raise tho

And if he is folding all but 3% we can profitably 3b/f almost our entire non-Prem range

I don't agree or disagree, I never gave an opinion on pf action. But the $$ in pot is certainly a factor in what to do or how much to bet if we do 3!.


And your second point goes to OP's thought that he needs to bluff more, cuz if V really does only call with 3%, H should hammer him.

I don't understand how this is an argument against 3-bettting here. The fact that we can profitably 3-bet ATC here if he's really folding this much doesn't mean that we shouldn't 3-bet JJ. I'd rather win $19 here than go multi-way with the worse absolute and relative position. As played, there's $43 in the pot heading to the flop, and I don't think we have $19 worth of equity in it facing 3 players. In position, we could probably count on making +EV decisions post-flop to make up for any deficit, but I don't think that happens given our position to the raiser and the rest of the table.

I'd say pre-flop raise>call>fold. I'd change my mind OTB.

Let's just focus on the basics. You need to 3bet with JJ and isolate. It's okay to end the hand preflop and pick up the pot there because you're out of position with a hand that really doesn't look good on too many flops. And if you get 4bet, just fold.

When you hit your monsters on a 1/2 table, just start blasting away. Especially on that board. A lot of limp callers' hands hit that board so you really want to start extracting value.

First off I didn't say it was an argument against 3b JJ here. Just made a point.

Second a few errors in your response::

-re: there is $43 in flop pre and we don't have $19 in EV. Well fortunately the hand doesn't end on the flop and addl $$ can still go in

-You are assuming 3b creates 19 in EV which math dictates is impossible unless we know with certainty all are folding to the 3b

Overall I just see a lack of critical thinking itt (not directed at you) and a sort of entitlement because we have JJ. I think it may well be that 3b>call just not for the reasons listed itt.

Narrowing the field or taking it down pre simply aren't good reasons to 3b. It should always be about the EV

We are 98% vs set.
We are 23% vs flush.
We are 100% vs 2 pair and weaker.
We are 82% against a FD.

I understand this spot isnt the textbook definition of way behind/way ahead... but the equity splits are drastic. The equity is tilted MUCH MORE one way or the other.

I agree 100%. What I was saying is that even though a lot of people here said they would lead out with this set (which is correct), I question whether or not some of them actually do it. Because almost nobody does. If they actually do it, then good for them!

Don't need to do EV analysis. We should be advocating 3 betting very wide in this situation. For reasons you have mentioned (folds to much).

Since we are never going to get OP to raise ATC here. (Which is obviously profitable). Then expanding his value range is a great start.

Since V3 range is well defined. Postflop play will be rather easy and standard. Also we have good reads, that other villains are poor players, who may call to light pre and play bad post.

Therfore, raising pre is obviously very +Ev.

Calling is also +EV. As jacks can play well postflop as overpair, with backup plan of set mining.

Now if our plan was to 3 bet the crap out of V3 late position opens. Then yes. I would prefer to flat JJ here. Wait to 3 bet light (with almost ATC) on later hand.

But reading between lines. OP isn't comfortable with that plan. Guiding him to open up his 3 bet range is very +EV for him. Jacks, and 10's are probably best 2 hands to start him in this direction.

Before I get destroyed with my ATC comments. Obviously we are looking for some equity postflop.

I'm not following this. It's just about criminal not to 3bet pre in this hand. And yes, narrowing the field is one of the many good reasons to do this, and that's because it is clearly EV to do so in this context.

3betting pre flop isn't just clicking buttons, it helps narrow the range of whoever does call, and punishes the limpers and initial raiser into paying more to see a flop and potentially cracking our premium hand with their mediocre starting hands. Playing JJ OOP against three opponents with wide ranges is far more difficult then playing it heads up OOP against one opponent with a narrower range.

3betting pre makes our opponents decisions far more difficult and more expensive. Flatting pre makes our decisions more difficult and largely leaves us giving up our premium hand or set mining. Narrowing the field and the number of potential bad cards/flops we have to dodge is key to this and very clearly +EV.

I never said that 3b was not +EV. I also said this should likely be a 3b.

However just because something is +EV doesn't mean it is optimally +EV






Lol this guy....STFU Zoltan