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Old 06-27-2012, 03:20 PM   #16
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Re: 1/2 big draw or.....?

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Originally Posted by iplaypotsplayyou View Post
well...if out equity is around 34%-36% and we know bb is shoving every turn. dont we need, 6-1, its to see one card?
Still not sure how you are coming up with 6:1?

The chances of our flush card hitting on the turn are about 4:1.

We're currently getting less than 2:1, so we need to make sure we make up 2+ bets if we're calling to breakeven. If villain is going to shove every turn (including when our flush draw comes in), then we'll easily make up these bets (and more) when we call the flop, so easy call on the flop - in a vacuum. The added difficulty is that there are still those behind us to act on the flop; but with passive tables usually being passive, it's more likely us calling will simply get more players to call and pad the pot, rather than raise, so I think calling is typically ok here (if villain pays off on the turn).
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Old 06-27-2012, 03:20 PM   #17
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Re: 1/2 big draw or.....?

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If I've read things right, villain has bet $20 into a $14 pot; we're getting nowhere near the immediate odds we need to chase our flush. It's unclear whether our straight outs are good (I doubt our overcard out is). It's also a little unclear as to what our implied odds are.
yeah i thot ther were some callers in front of us. i mustve read it wrong.

either way not folding nut draw on the flop, and also not going to reopen things and get myself stuck in a bad spot. flatting this bet in position has got to be the best play IMO. we cant fold, too much equity+a chance to make the nuts. i dont know about u guys but i like having a chance to make the nuts.
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Old 06-27-2012, 03:36 PM   #18
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Re: 1/2 big draw or.....?

your right on the 4-1 sorry. dont know what i was thinking. I believe that all of the advice given is correct. i think iwas supposed to flat. As played i flatted the raise to 120 knowing vil2 would NEVER reshove.

So i flat vil 2 flats. turn is 2h, i check vilian 2 says "just you and me?" and checks.
River is an off suit 4 i check vil 2 checks. Villian 1 had 10 6o, villian 2 checked twice in position with j10, told you he was passive
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Old 06-27-2012, 04:12 PM   #19
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Re: 1/2 big draw or.....?

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I believe that all of the advice given is correct. i think iwas supposed to flat.
LOL. OPs seem to hear what they want to hear.

Both myself and GG favored folding to flatting. Without direct odds, flatting is only based on implied odds from which you are only accounting for the BB. We have many to act behind us and will be getting it in bad if there are raises.

So many people have trouble giving up the NFD. There are times that passively flatting will be profitable and there are times when semibluff raising will be absolutely correct.

A 7-way limped pot on a 789 board with an overbet in front is NOT a great spot here. You have NO FE against the field. You gotta bink AND get paid off AND perhaps avoid redraws.

Admittedly, in game, I may flat here hoping no one raises and a spade hits the turn, but folding is correct.
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Old 06-27-2012, 05:49 PM   #20
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Re: 1/2 big draw or.....?

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LOL. OPs seem to hear what they want to hear.

Both myself and GG favored folding to flatting. Without direct odds, flatting is only based on implied odds from which you are only accounting for the BB. We have many to act behind us and will be getting it in bad if there are raises.

So many people have trouble giving up the NFD. There are times that passively flatting will be profitable and there are times when semibluff raising will be absolutely correct.

A 7-way limped pot on a 789 board with an overbet in front is NOT a great spot here. You have NO FE against the field. You gotta bink AND get paid off AND perhaps avoid redraws.

Admittedly, in game, I may flat here hoping no one raises and a spade hits the turn, but folding is correct.
Your the only one advocating folding to 1 spazzz and weak passsives.
i cant see how folding with position on a spazz getting 1.7-1 cold be correct in a multiway pot at a loose passive table......this may be a flaw, but its only 20 bucks to these guys..... its a rec game. Not to mention if table folded around immplied odds could be as highh as 7-1. he stacks of light loves to overbet pots, only called by worse. If we miss and he fires again its easy to toss.

Last edited by iplaypotsplayyou; 06-27-2012 at 05:51 PM. Reason: forgot
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Old 06-27-2012, 05:57 PM   #21
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Re: 1/2 big draw or.....?

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Your the only one advocating folding to 1 spazzz and weak passsives.
i cant see how folding with position on a spazz getting 1.7-1 cold be correct in a multiway pot at a loose passive table......this may be a flaw, but its only 20 bucks to these guys..... its a rec game. Not to mention if table folded around immplied odds could be as highh as 7-1. he stacks of light loves to overbet pots, only called by worse. If we miss and he fires again its easy to toss.
You realize that 1.7:1 odds is about the worse odds you'll ever be faced with at a NL table, right? You seem to keep saying these odds as if they are good.

I don't think the OP had enough info on V1 regarding stacking off light (nor how spazzy he was, as this lead on this board into this many people proves), which is probably the key factor, along with the chances of getting raised behind us (which, at a typical passive table, is usually slim). I'm with the fatman on this one (and I think we both call in game time, though kinda feel dirty about it, and will absolutely kick ourselves if someone raises behind).
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Old 06-27-2012, 08:38 PM   #22
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Re: 1/2 big draw or.....?

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Your the only one advocating folding to 1 spazzz and weak passsives.
i cant see how folding with position on a spazz getting 1.7-1 cold be correct in a multiway pot at a loose passive table......this may be a flaw, but its only 20 bucks to these guys..... its a rec game. Not to mention if table folded around immplied odds could be as highh as 7-1. he stacks of light loves to overbet pots, only called by worse. If we miss and he fires again its easy to toss.
Range your opponents. Including the CO and BTN, who although are not labelled as "villains", are waiting to act after you. You are acting like this is a heads up pot with the bettor. There are so many uncertainties when action is on you following BB's overbet lead. You can't argue about direct odds; you have no FE; you are overestimating your implied odds. Flatting is not the worst play in the world, but I'm pretty sure it is -EV. If you flat, you need to fold to raises behind you and c/f if you brick the turn. Either of these things is probably going to happen. At least you concede that your raise was bad.
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Old 06-28-2012, 12:00 AM   #23
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Re: 1/2 big draw or.....?

are we really advocating folding the nut draw in a multiway pot?? how can we not have at least some implied odds if we hit the nuts.... you cant tell me these villains would just muck the nuts straight if a spade comes in.. they might not bet, but you better believe they will be calling! at least just to show off how badly they were sucked out on!

my mistake on thinking hte direct odds were there on the flop.. but im still flatting hoping to bink the flush on the turn. and if they spazz out on the turn then they do and i fold. but if it hits its going to be a nice pot, i think we can be certain of that.
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Old 06-28-2012, 04:35 AM   #24
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Re: 1/2 big draw or.....?

-ev? we need 2-1 odds to break even. so we are off .3 of a 20 dollar bet. so ev equal -6.66? im no mathlete but with a nut draw if we can ever get any turn bet i believe it becomes profitable or no??? im not saying i played it right, or know the right play. But i have trouble thinking we can feel good about folding flop
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Old 06-28-2012, 11:37 AM   #25
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Re: 1/2 big draw or.....?

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-ev? we need 2-1 odds to break even. so we are off .3 of a 20 dollar bet. so ev equal -6.66? im no mathlete but with a nut draw if we can ever get any turn bet i believe it becomes profitable or no??? im not saying i played it right, or know the right play. But i have trouble thinking we can feel good about folding flop
I'm not sure if you're doing your odds right and properly figuring out what you need to make up chasing on a draw for the next street (I'm confused by your numbers). In this case, bottom line is that we're getting immediate odds of ~2:1 and we need ~4:1 to chase a flush draw (I'm just rounding for ease, plus I'm kinda ignoring our OESD/overcard for now due to RIO). That means we need to make up 2 bets of $20 on later streets in order to break even, so we need to make sure that he's going to put in $40+ dollars in later streets when we hit. Now, if we're the only caller the pot will be ~$55, and if this guy is a drooler and always pays off when the obvious flush draw comes in, then fine, we'll probably make up the $40 pretty easy (plus more). But it ain't always that easy; is this drooler paying off when a 4-to-a-straight flush card comes in? Plus we have to take into account the times where we call and then get raised behind us, where we might have to consider folding.
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Old 06-28-2012, 01:01 PM   #26
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Re: 1/2 big draw or.....?

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Originally Posted by gobbledygeek View Post
I'm not sure if you're doing your odds right and properly figuring out what you need to make up chasing on a draw for the next street (I'm confused by your numbers). In this case, bottom line is that we're getting immediate odds of ~2:1 and we need ~4:1 to chase a flush draw (I'm just rounding for ease, plus I'm kinda ignoring our OESD/overcard for now due to RIO). That means we need to make up 2 bets of $20 on later streets in order to break even, so we need to make sure that he's going to put in $40+ dollars in later streets when we hit. Now, if we're the only caller the pot will be ~$55, and if this guy is a drooler and always pays off when the obvious flush draw comes in, then fine, we'll probably make up the $40 pretty easy (plus more). But it ain't always that easy; is this drooler paying off when a 4-to-a-straight flush card comes in? Plus we have to take into account the times where we call and then get raised behind us, where we might have to consider folding.

This. You need ~4:1 direct odds to draw to 9 outs on ONE street (which is applicable here). A pot-sized bet will always price this out and here we have an overbet. If I was closing the action against a guy who I was pretty sure would pay me off if another spade fell (ie implied odds), that's a different story, but you continue to ignore the rest of the field. Calculations aside, your posts imply to me that you simply won't let a draw to the nuts go regardless of PF action, board texture and number of opponents.
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Old 06-28-2012, 09:17 PM   #27
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Re: 1/2 big draw or.....?

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Originally Posted by gobbledygeek View Post
I'm not sure if you're doing your odds right and properly figuring out what you need to make up chasing on a draw for the next street (I'm confused by your numbers). In this case, bottom line is that we're getting immediate odds of ~2:1 and we need ~4:1 to chase a flush draw (I'm just rounding for ease, plus I'm kinda ignoring our OESD/overcard for now due to RIO). That means we need to make up 2 bets of $20 on later streets in order to break even, so we need to make sure that he's going to put in $40+ dollars in later streets when we hit. Now, if we're the only caller the pot will be ~$55, and if this guy is a drooler and always pays off when the obvious flush draw comes in, then fine, we'll probably make up the $40 pretty easy (plus more). But it ain't always that easy; is this drooler paying off when a 4-to-a-straight flush card comes in? Plus we have to take into account the times where we call and then get raised behind us, where we might have to consider folding.
i appologize guys, i was forgeting about the whole street to street odds. And i know he is bombing the turnregardless. he will shove an inferior hand just to get to show down, I appreciate all the advice guys. Thank you for being patient with me(i am a noob) Can somebody tell me our ev or-ev of calling the overbet, if he completely shuts down when we hit? -15?
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Old 06-29-2012, 01:03 PM   #28
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Re: 1/2 big draw or.....?

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Can somebody tell me our ev or-ev of calling the overbet, if he completely shuts down when we hit? -15?
As I say, if we're just playing for the flush draw (ignoring our OESD/overcard for simplicity's sake, plus the fact that there are still some behind us), plus assuming we're behind, we need to make up $40+ just to breakeven. If he doesn't pay us off when we hit, then this is a -$40+ EV move every time we do it. The fact that the other guy padded the pot really helps us out (so now it's just a -$20+ move, but the fact that there are two opponents to the turn really increases our chances of getting paid off if we hit).
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