You said villain is aggressive, but do you think he calls down light post-flop? I think we should almost always barrel this turn, but against stickier opponents we might give up on the river. If villain is capable of folding and/or reading the board I think it's a good spot to barrel though.
I'm going to do some analysis. The ranges may be off a bit but unless drastically off the result should be close.
Let's suppose villain will 3-bet {JJ+, AK} pre-flop against a raise from the HJ.
If villain is aggressive, he is very unlikely to have a set as he would almost certainly not x/c on the turn with 3 diamonds, but let's give him a few combos of sets as it's not impossible (44 is probably the most likely set as he might flat with a diamond). A flush seems almost impossible for an aggressive player unless you have a very bluffy image. How can he x/c the turn with a flush then check the river? The T, J, and Q of diamonds all on the board block a ton of the likelier flushes also. But I'll add a few combos of flushes.
If villain is a bit sticky, he probably calls the flop c-bet with two overcards and may hold on to weak Ts OTT, possibly even gutshots. So his range might look something like these 180 combos: {ThTc,6h6c,4d4h,4d4s,4d4c,AQs-ATs,KTs+,QTs+,JTs,T9s,53s,Ad9d,Kd9d,Ad8d,Kd8d,9d8d ,Ad7d,Kd7d,9d7d,8d7d,Ad6d,Kd6d,Ad5d,Kd5d,7h5h,7s5s ,7c5c,Ad4d,Kd4d,Ad3d,Kd3d,Ad2d,Kd2d,AJo-ATo,KTo+,QTo+,JTo,T9o,75o,AdQh,AdQs,AdQc,Ad9h,Ad9s ,Ad9c,Ad8h,Ad8s,Ad8c,Ad7h,Ad7s,Ad7c,Ad6h,Ad6s,Ad6c ,Ad5h,Ad5s,Ad5c,Ad4h,Ad4s,Ad4c,Ad3h,Ad3s,Ad3c,Ad2h ,Ad2s,Ad2c,Kd6h,Kd6s,Kd6c,9d8h,9d8s,9d8c,9h8d,9s8d ,9c8d,9d7h,9d7s,9d7c,9h7d,9s7d,9c7d,8d7h,8d7s,8d7c ,8h7d,8s7d,8c7d}
After discounting the flushes (say he only x/c with ~33% K-high and A-high flushes and never baby flushes), we have something like these 166 combos: {ThTc,6h6c,4d4h,4d4s,4d4c,AQs-ATs,KTs+,QTs+,JTs,T9s,Ad9d,Kd9d,Ad6d,Kd6d,Ad5d,Kd5 d,7h5h,7s5s,7c5c,5h3h,5s3s,5c3c,AJo-ATo,KTo+,QTo+,JTo,T9o,75o,AdQh,AdQs,AdQc,Ad9h,Ad9s ,Ad9c,Ad8h,Ad8s,Ad8c,Ad7h,Ad7s,Ad7c,Ad6h,Ad6s,Ad6c ,Ad5h,Ad5s,Ad5c,Ad4h,Ad4s,Ad4c,Ad3h,Ad3s,Ad3c,Ad2h ,Ad2s,Ad2c,Kd6h,Kd6s,Kd6c,9d8h,9d8s,9d8c,9h8d,9s8d ,9c8d,9d7h,9d7s,9d7c,9h7d,9s7d,9c7d,8d7h,8d7s,8d7c ,8h7d,8s7d,8c7d}
Now OTR, even though this villain is hypothesized to be a bit sticky, he definitely folds all busted draws and probably made hands weaker than TPGK (including Ts), which leaves us with 67 combos {ThTc,6h6c,4d4h,4d4s,4d4c,AJs,KJs+,QJs,JTs,Ad9d,Kd 9d,Ad6d,Kd6d,Ad5d,Kd5d,7h5h,7s5s,7c5c,5h3h,5s3s,5c 3c,AJo,KJo,QJo,JTo,75o}
Now if he folds everything worse than TPTK we're left with 46 combos {ThTc,6h6c,4d4h,4d4s,4d4c,AJs,KQs,JTs,Ad9d,Kd9d,Ad 6d,Kd6d,Ad5d,Kd5d,7h5h,7s5s,7c5c,5h3h,5s3s,5c3c,AJ o,JTo,75o}
He could even fold TPTK, but we don't need him to. If these assumptions are even close to accurate, then triple barreling here is massively profitable. Just looking at it from the river, he should be folding 99/166 to 120/166 of his combos, so he's folding 59.6% to 72.2% (possibly even higher).
We risk 180 to win 242, so the bluff needs to work 180/(180+242) = 42.7% of the time.
If villain dumps everything worse than AJ, EV(river bluff) = 124.68
If villain hangs on to his weak TP, EV(river bluff) = 71.51
We can estimate he's somewhere in between, say P(fold) = .66:
EV(river bluff) = P(fold)*242 - (1 - P(fold))*180
EV(river bluff) = .66*242 - .34*180 = 98.52
If our assumptions are even close to correct, this is a massively profitable bluff. Villain has to be super sticky to warrant giving up. If he keeps all his Js and all but the worst Ts (just drops T9) then the bluff is break-evenish, worth $3.02
Barreling is actually even more profitable than this though because sometimes he folds on the flop, sometimes he folds on the turn, and sometimes we make the best hand when we're called, giving us additional EV beyond the river calculation--however these multi-street calculations are complicated so I leave it alone for now. Just realize we can probably barrel even if villain is never folding Ts.
If villain is less sticky and folds his Ts on the turn, he has fewer combos at the start of the river, but he is also more likely to dump all his one pairs, and possibly even JT--I haven't done the math on this scenario but think the bluff would still be quite profitable, particularly since we gain EV from the increased turn folds even if he isn't folding the river quite as often.
Last edited by Shai Hulud; 07-19-2017 at 10:34 PM.