1/2, with a 5 straddle on.

V1: From the very limited time I've seen him play, he seems to be a bit on the aggressive side, and probably defends a bit wide ish from BB

Folded to Hero
I'm in the HJ with A Q (350 to start the hand)
SB folds
Hero opens to 18, Villain calls in BB (hero covers slightly)

Straddle folds

(42)Flop comes 4 T 6

Hero c-bets 25. Villain calls.

2 BD, 2 overs, a c-bet seems pretty good here.

(92)Turn is the J

Very favorable turn card. Hitting favorable turns with AQ here.

We bet 75.

I think double barreling here is definitely standard considering that we pick up lots of equity with the J . But In general, what cards should we be triple barreling on the river here? Can we bluff shove on a blank here, say the deuce of clubs? Obv, we can shove on most K, diamond, maybe A, maybe Q rivers, but what else.

I think it's V dependent. Aggressive doesn't always mean sticky. Generally I'm firing again here, probably less than 75, I'm probably in the $45-50 range. This assumes villain checked to Hero. If he calls turn bet I put him on a pair and non-believer and would fire again on the river for any hit at all, A, Q, K, diamond, but would check back river on brick. Could actually have some showdown value AQ versus any number of blind defending draws.

We can triple barrel on a , on any King, Ace, maybe a Q depends what we put opponent on the flop. We got to bluff on something too, the best is to bluff if the board pairs at the end. Villain did not act like he may have a set. He didn't try to protect with an overbet against a draw. So, if he's not got a set that means we got one,. right? ...wtf.. So, we have 12 outs from the turn to the river to pair the board. We bluff. You got your legitimate outs that gives you a Str8, a Flush, the Aces for TP, the Queens for value bet, and 12 outs that pairs the board on the river for a bluff. About 28-29 cards to play with (count them to be sure). Consider all those cards as they are in your hand and all belong to you alone. Use them selectively. If you can master this art you will have a HUGE advantage against specific and selected victims.

Oh, by the way, Don't dry-bluff on a 2 or any deuce or any card I didn't mention because you got no story from the board. Very important. The board has got to say something in order for villain to make some connection. A paired board especially if you ask the dealer: "pair the board Baby!" just before he's ready to deal the last card it implies you got a set. So, the villain's attention is focused on the board looking in horror to see if the board indeed pairs to kill his dreams. (you got to be an expert to put opponent on a hand and figure him out for a set or not in order for this play with paired board bluff to work)

If you put villain on TP then always from the turn to the river you will always have 12 outs to pair the board except the top card. Those are always your extra outs.

Agree on the cards we should always barrel. But I think some of the others are okay against some opponents.

The blanks are obviously not ideal, particularly low cards, but I think villain is mostly concerned with his own hand. If he has a flush he's not folding. If he has two pair he may or may not fold. If he has TPWK he's likely folding, regardless of whether the river pairs, and there's a lot of TP in his range and also 9 combos JT. He's also folding his straight draws that missed like 75 and 98, as well as some weak combo 1 card flush draws + pairs like A6 or KT

The river pairing is only likely to matter if villain credits you with a set by the turn. But will he believe this so strongly he'll fold a flush if the board pairs? Doubtful, but maybe a super passive opponent might find a fold. And if he does credit you with a set by the turn, he is folding all weaker hands on the river anyway.

As far as having a story, betting the turn and bombing on a 2 river screams "I have a flush," right? And it's highly doubtful it helped villain. I might not bet it just to keep my bluffing frequencies from being insanely high, but in a vacuum I think we can still get a lot of folds against the right opponent, who is just looking down at his KQ and thinking, "how can I call a huge river bet when my opponent obviously has a flush?"

Of course whether you can get away barreling any river depends on villain's tendencies and your own image at the table. If you have a LAG or maniacal image it might be best just to barrel on the scariest cards like diamonds, Aces, and Kings (or to give up if villain is a station). Incidentally, us having the Q removes a lot of the more likely flushes from villain's ranges on non-diamond rivers.

Cbetting flop is trivial. Betting vs checking trun is up to you, pretty good bouffing card, but also you have plenty of equity you dont necessarily want to get pushed off of or overplay. What is he representing here? He called flop, which I think puts him on Tx, 6x, 4x, FD, 57, and 53 if he didnt fold it pre. JJ+ probably 3 bets pre, I think 2p+ raises a flop this wet but maybe not if he is bad?

By betting turn, I think 4x and Tx are gone, which hurts your Q and A drawing equity, Realistically youre looking at JT a huge amount here, and sticky Tx occassionally. Also Ad(T/8/4). A flush might check/call, but no way he doesnt bet out river unless he is a scared fish with a low flush. Any poorly played 2p/set is calling turn.

You should check back Q/A river for sure, K is marginal and villan dependent (basically is he bad enough to have a low flush he checks on turn?). If he checks when 4th diamond comes you bet, although if he bets id just call and even consider folding.

Bluffing opportunities, I mean, it seems to me that folding JT is the goal here, so id say 8/4 are the best bluffing cards. You might even get a scared fish to lay down a flush. Otherwise its read dependent. Will the dude finally "believe you" that you hit the foush when you bet the river?

I totally agree with your analysis. 100% correct. I think the same way at the tables. What I did in my post if to "open the eyes" or our hero what to look for.

You have always to consider your opponent. You have to get inside his head. You need to know the guy that you pulling this on, he’s a good player. Those are some of the most sophisticated plays in Hold’em but you don’t want to be trying them against the suckers. No, You don’t try them against amateurs. This are sophisticated plays against good players. Because if the players don’t understand what you’re trying to convey you just wasting your time and wasting your money. You can’t make a sophisticated play against an unsophisticated player. Always remember that.

For example: When it becomes obvious you and villain both have a str8 at the turn and you ask the dealer: "pair the board Baby!" - and if the board pairs and you shove, a tight knowledgeable opponent may fold. It happen with me many times. But if villain is a donkey, he doesn't understand the importance of the board pairing. So, you got to dance between the rain drops, so to speak.

Try it yourself when not involved in a hand. See how many cards will pair the board from the turn to the river (it will be 12 outs or 9 outs if you want to exclude the top card giving opponent TP). See what other cards puts 4 to a str8 even with one gap between. Plus all your legitimate outs, say to a flush or to a gutshot. Also always you have the runner-runner good for 1 extra out. If you add all this you'll be having a ton of 25+ outs or more. I guarantee you that nobody in your poker room is capable of looking at the game like this. All they care is their two card or their little pair with a weak kicker. (LOL)

- Do this as an exercise to pass the time when you are card dead and as a mental game. It will help you tremendously when time comes. You will be a hell of a tough player to compete against. If you get called in a bluff like that, the next time you have a monster you'll be getting all the action in the world.

I think we should check the turn in position because we are have a lot of equity here and we get more information by seeing what he does on the river. You dont want to bet with 2 overs to the board and a gut shot and a q high flush draw and then he raises you and now youre in a tough spot where you have to fold your equity.

We'll improve to the likely best hand less than half the time. When we don't, our bluffs won't have much credibility on the river after checking the turn. We also win a smaller pot. This is a great turn card to bet. We should pick up the pot right now pretty often and when we don't we can steal it most of the time on the river, and when we do improve, we win a bigger pot.

On the contrary, on the turn when we pick up lots of equity on our legitimate outs we also pick up lots of more phantom imaginary bluffing outs (we picked up at least 9 extra outs automatically on any the turn, usually more) Very rarely a turn card doesn't bring something we can build on it. Usually it does. So we bet now to build our credibility in case we either make it or got to bluff on scary imaginary outs. I always expect more outs on the turn. Always! .. wtf? - It's like a given for me.

I agree with the general cards we should be triple barreling with.
Sorry for not clarifying, Villain chk to me on the turn. I bet 75, kinda preparing for a river all-in that's why I bet a little bit larger. Villain Calls.

River is the 3 :clubs:

Hero jams all in for about 180 more.

75 does get there. But I was kinda thinking along the lines of what Shai was thinking about here. If I bomb the river, I think it's looking like I have a flush, and the villain would have trouble calling with even two pair hands. However, I think another good part of villains' calling range is the pair + nut or second nut flush draw. I think he's probably going to find a call with these on the turn (Villains love to chase draws) Something like, A T :x: or A J :x: . All of that range will have to fold a shove, or if he's getting sticky with a jack or a ten that will probably fold. So in this way, I think it's better to bluff shove here with something like Ax Q , then A Qx. In this way, it also prevents us from way over bluffing here.

I also agree though, it's good to barrel on some river pairing hands. I think given the wetness of the board, I think it's safe to say that he's going to raise sets.

Without reading. If you think it's close, always barrel
/

You said villain is aggressive, but do you think he calls down light post-flop? I think we should almost always barrel this turn, but against stickier opponents we might give up on the river. If villain is capable of folding and/or reading the board I think it's a good spot to barrel though.

I'm going to do some analysis. The ranges may be off a bit but unless drastically off the result should be close.

Let's suppose villain will 3-bet {JJ+, AK} pre-flop against a raise from the HJ.

If villain is aggressive, he is very unlikely to have a set as he would almost certainly not x/c on the turn with 3 diamonds, but let's give him a few combos of sets as it's not impossible (44 is probably the most likely set as he might flat with a diamond). A flush seems almost impossible for an aggressive player unless you have a very bluffy image. How can he x/c the turn with a flush then check the river? The T, J, and Q of diamonds all on the board block a ton of the likelier flushes also. But I'll add a few combos of flushes.

If villain is a bit sticky, he probably calls the flop c-bet with two overcards and may hold on to weak Ts OTT, possibly even gutshots. So his range might look something like these 180 combos: {ThTc,6h6c,4d4h,4d4s,4d4c,AQs-ATs,KTs+,QTs+,JTs,T9s,53s,Ad9d,Kd9d,Ad8d,Kd8d,9d8d ,Ad7d,Kd7d,9d7d,8d7d,Ad6d,Kd6d,Ad5d,Kd5d,7h5h,7s5s ,7c5c,Ad4d,Kd4d,Ad3d,Kd3d,Ad2d,Kd2d,AJo-ATo,KTo+,QTo+,JTo,T9o,75o,AdQh,AdQs,AdQc,Ad9h,Ad9s ,Ad9c,Ad8h,Ad8s,Ad8c,Ad7h,Ad7s,Ad7c,Ad6h,Ad6s,Ad6c ,Ad5h,Ad5s,Ad5c,Ad4h,Ad4s,Ad4c,Ad3h,Ad3s,Ad3c,Ad2h ,Ad2s,Ad2c,Kd6h,Kd6s,Kd6c,9d8h,9d8s,9d8c,9h8d,9s8d ,9c8d,9d7h,9d7s,9d7c,9h7d,9s7d,9c7d,8d7h,8d7s,8d7c ,8h7d,8s7d,8c7d}

After discounting the flushes (say he only x/c with ~33% K-high and A-high flushes and never baby flushes), we have something like these 166 combos: {ThTc,6h6c,4d4h,4d4s,4d4c,AQs-ATs,KTs+,QTs+,JTs,T9s,Ad9d,Kd9d,Ad6d,Kd6d,Ad5d,Kd5 d,7h5h,7s5s,7c5c,5h3h,5s3s,5c3c,AJo-ATo,KTo+,QTo+,JTo,T9o,75o,AdQh,AdQs,AdQc,Ad9h,Ad9s ,Ad9c,Ad8h,Ad8s,Ad8c,Ad7h,Ad7s,Ad7c,Ad6h,Ad6s,Ad6c ,Ad5h,Ad5s,Ad5c,Ad4h,Ad4s,Ad4c,Ad3h,Ad3s,Ad3c,Ad2h ,Ad2s,Ad2c,Kd6h,Kd6s,Kd6c,9d8h,9d8s,9d8c,9h8d,9s8d ,9c8d,9d7h,9d7s,9d7c,9h7d,9s7d,9c7d,8d7h,8d7s,8d7c ,8h7d,8s7d,8c7d}

Now OTR, even though this villain is hypothesized to be a bit sticky, he definitely folds all busted draws and probably made hands weaker than TPGK (including Ts), which leaves us with 67 combos {ThTc,6h6c,4d4h,4d4s,4d4c,AJs,KJs+,QJs,JTs,Ad9d,Kd 9d,Ad6d,Kd6d,Ad5d,Kd5d,7h5h,7s5s,7c5c,5h3h,5s3s,5c 3c,AJo,KJo,QJo,JTo,75o}

Now if he folds everything worse than TPTK we're left with 46 combos {ThTc,6h6c,4d4h,4d4s,4d4c,AJs,KQs,JTs,Ad9d,Kd9d,Ad 6d,Kd6d,Ad5d,Kd5d,7h5h,7s5s,7c5c,5h3h,5s3s,5c3c,AJ o,JTo,75o}

He could even fold TPTK, but we don't need him to. If these assumptions are even close to accurate, then triple barreling here is massively profitable. Just looking at it from the river, he should be folding 99/166 to 120/166 of his combos, so he's folding 59.6% to 72.2% (possibly even higher).

We risk 180 to win 242, so the bluff needs to work 180/(180+242) = 42.7% of the time.

If villain dumps everything worse than AJ, EV(river bluff) = 124.68

If villain hangs on to his weak TP, EV(river bluff) = 71.51

We can estimate he's somewhere in between, say P(fold) = .66:

EV(river bluff) = P(fold)*242 - (1 - P(fold))*180

EV(river bluff) = .66*242 - .34*180 = 98.52

If our assumptions are even close to correct, this is a massively profitable bluff. Villain has to be super sticky to warrant giving up. If he keeps all his Js and all but the worst Ts (just drops T9) then the bluff is break-evenish, worth $3.02

Barreling is actually even more profitable than this though because sometimes he folds on the flop, sometimes he folds on the turn, and sometimes we make the best hand when we're called, giving us additional EV beyond the river calculation--however these multi-street calculations are complicated so I leave it alone for now. Just realize we can probably barrel even if villain is never folding Ts.

If villain is less sticky and folds his Ts on the turn, he has fewer combos at the start of the river, but he is also more likely to dump all his one pairs, and possibly even JT--I haven't done the math on this scenario but think the bluff would still be quite profitable, particularly since we gain EV from the increased turn folds even if he isn't folding the river quite as often.

^cliffs?

Generally you can get away with barreling more than you'd think, even against pretty sticky villains. For this hand...

Barrel turn unless villain is total calling station.

Barrel river also unless villain is likely to call with weak pairs like A6. Even if he calls all Ts, barreling is okay here if villain is capable of folding occasionally on the turn.

The most important factor here that makes barreling more +EV is that the turn card was a diamond above a T. This makes many of villain's strong flop hands like AT now marginal. Had the turn been, say, the 9, villain has a lot more top pairs in his range, and therefore is calling down more frequently on the river. Whenever the turn is an overcard to the flop, particularly if it completes straights or flushes, it's a great barreling opportunity. Same for the river. Any card that drastically changes hand values on the flop is good to bluff on, though we can often bluff even on blank rivers as the missed draws will give up.

Sorry for late responses. I don't think that he calls down super super light. However, I think he's seems competent enough to not really respect my c-bets. So I think the bottom of his flop c-bet calling range is A J :x: or A Q :x: or a smaller pocket pair that's he calling wit. I agree that's he raising all sets. He might call with some flushes on the turn. He's a bit more on the aggressive side, but I don't think we can eliminate all flushes , but you gave him so flush combos which you did so that's fine.

I think that on the turn, he's going to hold to all nut or second nut flush draw + 2nd pair or top pair MAYBE 3rd pair. like, K Tx. He's probably not folding AJ on the Turn, he might fold AT no diamonds on the turn. I agree with the jack being an overcard it's a great turn to bluff at.

Barrel River is perfect. I think he's folding anything less than AJ. AJ is probably the worst hand he might find a call with.

I think this was really good analysis from you. Thank for you spending your time and effort into analyzing this hand.

For closure

Wow, I'm amazed at the detailed responses here! Honestly I would just lean towards almost automatically betting flop & turn when I have this many outs (and might be ahead anyway), without worrying too much about the texture of the board.

Really the biggest thing to worry about is if you have an opponent who could x/r bluff the turn if he realizes you are often double barreling here. Otherwise I just bet flop and turn somewhat mindlessly against the average 1/2 opponent. If he calls the turn he has a pair or a legit draw and I'm not generally betting the river unimproved.

But guys call a flop like that with all kinds of things as weak as overs with no . So don't think your hand lacks showdown value just b/c opponent calls flop (and lots of folks can float this and bet river when you check behind). Hence, I'm not generally inclined to 3 barrel bluff here even though he might fold 3rd or 4th pair there. Just go with showdown value and hope for the best.

(Plus, in this case almost all of the scare cards help you so it's down to bluffing an obvious brick. I don't think 3 barreling a brick makes any sense on this hand.)

I am kind of amazed he folded a T here, btw, I guess you got the bet size just right!

Guess my analysis was pretty close. I just eliminated approximately 1/3 of his flush combos as I figure an aggressive opponent is unlikely to check twice with a flush. Though even if he checks all his flushes here it's only about 14 more combos, so barreling is still highly +EV.

If he tanks this long he is probably folding everything worse than TPGK, so the river bluff is worth $71.51, maybe up to $98.52, depending whether villain hangs on to his weaker TP like QJ. Barreling is actually worth more than this because sometimes we get folds on the turn and sometimes on the flop, but from the point of view of the river this is a good estimate.

The J was indeed key against this villain. A low diamond and he'd likely hang on to his Ts. Barreling still might be okay but it's much closer to break even if the turn had been like the 9.

As to his holding, probably AT or KT. He might or might not continue OTT without diamonds, hard to know...though definitely more likely to continue if he has the A or K

@spider

I have to say checking the turn is pretty bad particularly if you think villain is calling on the flop with overcards. He's not calling on this turn with overcards so barreling the turn will get folds from most of these hands (and we win the same size pot as checking down and winning with Ace high), plus villain has a ton of draws in his range, and we don't want to give him a free card, so even when called we get a lot of folds barreling the river as he dumps all the missed draws and most of his Ts if he's not a total station, and possibly even some Js. Plus sometimes we'll hit our straight, and we win a much bigger pot when we barrel the turn. And sometimes we hit an A or Q and depending on villain can bet again for value or just check behind (I like checking behind as he's probably not calling many worse hands if an A or Q hits).

I like betting the turn and checking the river even less than checking the turn. Most of the time when we bluff, we should follow through on the next street. Most players just fold way too much on the turn and especially the river, especially on a board like this with tons of draws that bricked.

I think OP played this hand almost perfectly. Only thing I'd do different is raise more preflop given the straddle.

I didn't say to check the turn, not sure what you are referring to. I did say (in general) that I am somewhat less inclined to bet turn if opponent could bluff x/r which would frankly suck here -- same idea as to why steal more liberally against blinds who fold too much. But I totally agree about firing the 2nd barrel against a fairly typical 1/2 opponent.

As far as checking the river after betting turn: I'll mostly leave it at the justification I gave above, but I will just add that I am less optimistic than you and OP about folding out Jx and Tx here.

In part that's just based on the average 1/2 opponent, but also that this is a headsup hand to the flop, almost a blind steal hand (raise is from HJ not button so the range ought to be narrower, but same principles apply). I think the average 1/2 opponent will (incorrectly) fail to increase their aggression in response to this, but I do think they will (sort of correctly) call more liberally. So however hard it is to separate that guy from bottom pair on a multiway flop, it will be even harder headsup.

Sorry, looks like I misconstrued something you said. From the two quotes below I got the impression you didn't like betting the turn. My bad.

"Really the biggest thing to worry about is if you have an opponent who could x/r bluff the turn if he realizes you are often double barreling here.

But guys call a flop like that with all kinds of things as weak as overs with no . So don't think your hand lacks showdown value just b/c opponent calls flop"

Villain needs to call all his Js and all Ts to justify checking the river. Some 1/2 villains might stack off here if you have a LAG or maniac image but most sane opponents are not calling down 175BB deep with weak second pairs on a 3-flush board. Not in the games I play anyway.

I also suspect this villain's range is mostly marginal hands and busted draws. He is described as aggressive, so it is unlikely he will check twice with strong hands like flushes and sets or even JT. I think he's capped at AJ, maybe JT. I didn't assume this in my calculations but if true it makes bluffing the river even better.

We need to barrel the river because the turn improves villain's draws and weakens his made hands (except JT). And the draws bricked. If we check behind we do sometimes win the pot against bricked draws that didn't bluff the river, but by bluffing ourselves we can push villain off close to his entire range.

You may be right about the river, you definitely put more effort into specifying the ranges here. I was mainly trying to say that I think most of the river scare cards help you and most of the bricks don't. When you improve on the river, I would usually value bet that here (depending on the card).

When the river bricks, I think it is close and will depend on the card and the size of your bet. My default there is to hope my ace is good (and expect that it is somewhat often) but I'm not denying the 3rd barrel has merit -- I think our difference here is mainly based on the expectation of how likely some marginal hands are to fold.

(I assume barrel=bluff btw, and not cases of value betting. Have been away from 2p2 for awhile and still re-learning the lingo ;-)

Also, depending on how much credit we want to give our opponent, when the river bricks they ought to be considering if you are betting a missed draw yourself, and be a little more likely to call with a J or T if they made it this far. So the bet size could be really important.

I sort of hate to use the results here, but it's a good example. The opponent tanked and then folded a T on the turn. If the turn bet had been a little smaller and the opponent had called and the river bricks then we are set up for a 3rd barrel where maybe a 1/2 pot bet fails but PSB succeeds.

Well you aren't wrong that there are better river cards than like a 3 to barrel--which means bluff with the intention of bluffing again on the next round, though sometimes "barrel" is used to just mean betting repeatedly. The J is such a good turn barreling card we can push villain off almost his entire range by the river though, even on blanks. If it had been a 9 or worse a 9 I might not bet the river.

Villain should indeed be considering we're betting a missed draw, but very few live players will play draws this aggressively, so they usually don't. I doubt most villains are even thinking about our hand range much anyway. He's mostly just thinking "Hmm...I have AT. There's an overcard and diamonds. *Sigh* Gotta fold". Ts are basically just bluff catchers here. Nobody is value betting anything worse than a T. I don't think most villains are capable of calling 175BB with bluff catchers unless our image is maniac.