Turn is a disaster. We really need to be 3 betting flop smallish if we wanna try to play for it. Now villain simply cannot put us on a bluff.

What hands are we going to 3bet bluff the flop with? That seems to narrow our range to 2pair plus right away. Also, a lot of these guys raise flop so they can check back turn and get to a cheap river.

Also, I don't think it's a reasonable expectation to expect to stack a nit every time we beat their one pair.

How are we getting the max from unpaired Ax if we check call turn and check river? You think a guy that checked KK on a Jhi board OTR would bet AK on river for me?

So minraise flop? You think that won’t set up alarm bells in his mind and make him hero fold AK putting me on a set? Or maybe he could even have AT that snap folds to a flop 3b?

3b flop looks terribly strong.

This was exactly my thinking especially because I bet so tiny. He could have any Ax (not literally only AK) to be raising my 1/4 PSB OTF. A lot of those would check back turn once a winning nitreg calls their flop raise. But those same hands would have a hard time folding to a “same bet” on turn.

How's it terrible? Our goal is never to stack AK. Our goal is to stack 2pr+. And those hands are mostly going to sigh call if we x/jam turn. Even nits struggle to get away from a hand like A9 on AJ93.

Our goal is to make as much money as we can vs the entire range of hands villain may have here.

The reason a turn check/raise is terrible is because it turns our hand completely face up. Like seriously, what hands can we reasonably check raise here vs a value-oriented player that raised this flop? I'm not saying our opponent will throw away a set based on that action but I've seen players throw away sets facing that sort of action (sometimes incorrectly) and it's not even hard to throw away 2 pair in that spot considering a turn raise in general represents 2pair+.

By leading small, hero actually kept his range wide open. For all he knows we could have Ax or even a broadway draw. If villain has a very strong hand I suspect we'll hear about it on the turn.

It should be noted that there aren't many 2 pairs villain can actually have here. There is only one Ace remaining in the deck and we don't know the suits but it's possible that there isn't even an Ace-Jack suited remaining in the deck.

Turn is bad.

I just thought of a new line for this hand that I've never tried before. I'm probably the only player ITT that will try this:

Call the raise on the flop and immediately make a casual dark bet throwing out 1 black and 2 green (or 2 blacks for deeper stacks) and use table talk to make it practically impossible for villain to fold. Would work best with a cocktail in hand, rather than a tight reg image though (*cough* 6bet me *cough*)

Bet more on the turn. Betting like 1/3 pot is meh here and doesn’t lead to opponent feeling he needs to call river. River card is terrible for your hand. Meh call me crazy but can we check flop? You smash flop and only get action against ak/aq/ two pair type hands. I feel checking flop here could be goood. If you check flop here you can call flop bet and check raise turn which prolly gets called. This is all meh though bc you have to consider opponents range.

I’m a fan of checking flop here if I think others will bet and if the flop is rainbow. As played I think you get called on river a lot but river card is pretty bad and opponent prolly thinks you have nuts. As played prolly can bet down on river. I feel 100 is called in this spot.

Terribly strong or you have absolute air. But the point is there are much fewer hands that beat him on the flop than there are on the river.

How would a tight reg ever have air when 3betting this flop?

He's the one saying he's worried his opponent will fold AK to a flop 3-bet.

I feel people give too much credit to live players. I feel a live player will call a min bet on flop. Sure it looks super strong but it’s a way to keep opponent around. Min raising flop is better than going all in or raising 3-4x opponents flop
Bet.

It looks nutted if you min raise but live players aren’t always going to play perfect. The mistakes are huge in live low limit games.

I don’t have that kind of an image unfortunately. If I 3b flop, he’s running for the hills.

I know what you’re saying and there’s a tiny chance he gets sticky vs a minraise (even I would sometimes), but the flop is so dry and his range can contain some weak Ax sometimes, so I think 3b here is unrequired at this stack depth.

I guess I defer to your read, but I wouldn't expect a nit to raise a weak Ax.

Fair enough. So you think his AK/AQ are more likely to stack off to a b/min 3b from me OTF vs a call flop/donk turn and river or call flop/check call turn/shove river or call flop/check shove river line?

That's my theory, yes. There's just so much more to be afraid of on the river unless you get lucky and it comes 6, 6

+1

The KK hand is irrelevant. Dude, some hilariously unbalanced nut peddler just unglued his chips from his stack and raised flop. You call and check the turn when the worst possible hand he has is AQ, let him continue to bet, call and then check again becasue the only hand that might ck back riv at a high frequency is AK exactly only when the Q riv arrives. Nitfish always have their sonar pinging for signs they are beat, your only countermeasure is to run silent and deep.

You guys are perhaps right... I just got stacked with AKo to a donk bet line

1/2/4, few limps, I bump it to 30 in CO, only HJ calls

Flop (75): A78ss
He donks 60, I call

Turn (195): Qh
He donks 155, I shove for 410 total, he calls with AQo

If I couldn’t lay down AK OTT, I don’t know if this guy would either.

flop play looks really good imo, we have a boatload of hands we can do this with to build our odds, turn play just isn't good and doesn't sell the story, we absolutely have to check the turn because of the other hands in our range that are not top set, we just give him way too much information when we donk lead the turn, if we lead it has to be at least the size of the IP bet, this is a spot where you go 55% of pot or check raise. Don't get cute on the turn imo.

question tho: how did you know he had AK? did he show? seems like he actually had Jx and you wouldn't have gotten a red cent more either way