Villian limps from utg+1 i raise to 15 from CO with 4d3d (i chose 15 because i knew he would play fit or fold heads up) everyone folds to villian who calls the extra 10
I have the effective stack of about 130 -140 after the raise
Flop ($33)
Kd 3s 8d
Villian checks. I bet 20 or 25 he calls
Turn 7c
His range here is AK -k10, 8x, and flush draws. (Set highly unlikely)
Hands i expect him to fold to a shove k10 -kj, all 8s (except 87 obv) and all flush draws. If i get called i expect to have 30% equity against his kings.
Should i shove and try to get him to fold these hands of his range or take a free river and risk losing the pot to those hands or getting bluffed on the river to his missed flushes?
Ive counted 76 combos of 8s and kings i expect him to fold (all a8, 108, 98, 68, all k10, half kj, 2 combos of kq) and 41 combos he is continuing against a shove (all ak, all 88, 1 combo of 33, 10 combos of kq and 6 combos of kj, all 78) i count 5 flush draw combos he will fold (qj, qt, aj, a10, aq) he may continue with 910d or 67d.
Is this a reasonable estimate by me? Im new at this kind of anaylsis so someone helping me with the math from here would be appreciated!

Fold pre. With short stacks 43s isn't strong enough to get involved even if you know villain is fit/fold. Too much risk that somebody else gets involved and your risking too much of your stack when it fails.

As played shoving is fine. If you actually had any value hand you would shove so you get most of your FE now and you have reasonable equity even if he does call. Your counting looks about right, the bottom end of villain's range always includes some guess work. There are probably some middle pairs like TT/99 that call sometimes in his range also. Depending on villain there may also be some floats with weak hands that could improve like AsQs. Most of those should fold to a shove on the turn.

You have too many offsuit combos in his range imo.


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I'm also in the fold pre + top up pre camp.

Also would like to point out that he waited almost three years after registering to make this his first post. That is some serious dedication to lurking.