UTG raises. He's loose but has a limping range so this should be snuggish. UTG+1, a total unknown to me, calls. One MPer calls. I call QdJd OTB. BB, a TAG, 3-bets. UTG calls, and now UTG+1 backcaps. All call.

Flop (20 SB): Qh9d7s

BB "donks." UTG calls, UTG+1 calls, MP folds, and I call.

Turn (12 BB): Qs

BB bets, UTG folds, UTG+1 raises, and I call.

So far, nice hand.

Raise turn

Raise flop

The problem with raising the flop is that we aren't ahead enough of the time.

The problem with raising the turn is basically the same.

I think calling is the correct play on both streets.

i like the flop but would also 3bet the turn. your hand is under-repped and neither BB nor UTG+1 have done anything to convince me that they can beat your hand now. UTG+1's turn raise is slightly concerning, but i would have to believe that he (a) has AQ/KQ/77/99/Q9 (b) coldcalls with those hands (c) back caps those hands (d) then simply calls the flop when donked into. there are too many moving parts to this narrative to believe that UTG+1 has you beat, and i think you can comfortably 3bet.

I agree. Can we get a basic description of this player? I mean if hes an 80 year old man or a drunk guy or something it may help.

I think its a turn raise. Can't copy my stoves to this post on this device but it seems we have on the order of 50% equity.

It's hard to know what UTG+1 back cap is. It could be strong or it could be something silly. Since he is unknown we don't know if he would try to make a ill-advised semi bluff on the turn or perhaps think he is protecting a smaller pair. There is no doubt that our hand is an equity favorite on the turn and at game speed I would 3 bet. However, I think calling the turn raise does have merit. The BB is gonna have a big pair here much of the time given the line he has taken thus far. He will call turn raise and probably overcall most rivers. Also, those times he has JJ and a J hits the river, the hero is gonna win a bunch of money.

A live tell can be important here. If UTG+1 raises the turn without hesitation, I may be more inclined to call. If there is a non Hollywood delay in his action, I would be more likely to 3 bet.

It may be better to go for overcalls from BB. You can potentially make more money when ahead and lose less when behind.

The obvious downfall to this is giving the BB a chance to catch a two outer to beat you.

UTG+1 is a middle aged Asian woman. She is neither remarkably tight nor remarkably loose, but did start a new game and lobby as soon as the blinds hit her, if that means anything. Nobody seat selected to be on her left or on her right.

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If villains don't fold overpairs, I actually only need 33% equity to 3-bet. But if either has an overpair, that drastically reduces the chances that the other also has an overpair. Let's give BB {KK+, AQs} and UTG+1 {KK+, AQs, KQs, 99, 77}. That gives me ~35% immediate.

But unless I can fold to a 4-bet by UTG+1, I face really bad RIO to a large portion of her range.

I think your range for UTG+1 is far too pessimistic, but I wasn't there and you were. If that's actually your assessment of her range I would call and don't think it's very close.

I think you played it fine. Having BB fold when he's behind doesn't actually help you if you're like < 50% vs. UTG+1 and now get it HU. You actually want BB to call in that case with his 2-outer. And I think most BB TAGs are folding AA/KK to a 3-bet on the turn.

Disclaimer: I was at the table and so know villains more than calli, but I don't think I'm being results oriented.

Looks good to me. Bet river if checked to.

Well, I basically posted everything I know about her, so being there wasn't a huge plus.

And even though he doesn't seem like the type to do this, obviously Captain R should not post any additional reads.

I think this is a perfect example for the multiway bluffcatcher thread.

Add any type of spewy dynamic to utg+1 and I think it's an easy 3 bet.

So you guys want to just call in a 15 bet multiway pot on a wet board with trips third kicker when we can discount heavily every hand that beats us?

This is just not true. Supposing BB has like a gutter ball and 10% equity and we are a 60/40 dog vs UtG+1 then folding him out of a nearly 20 bet pot wins us the pot an extra 4% of the time which is almost enough right there. Am I thinking about this wrong?

Calli is estimating BB's range as AQs+, KK+.

Oh

Then bloof!!!!!! 3 bets!!!!!

Why can't UTG +1 have 99/77? Isn't this how everyone on the west coast plays 99/77 on this flop?

She can... so we should still call the turn.

I grunched a bit

But I was implying that call > raise >>>>>>>> fold

With these ranges you actually have about 50%. UTG+1's range has 12 combos of AA/KK, 6 combos of full houses, and only 2 combos of the better queens.

Do you think UTG+1 plays AA/KK this way though (raising the Q turn)? That might be the important question to answer for what we do on the turn. I tend to think the turn raise by UTG+1 is never AA/KK here. If you remove AA/KK from UTG+1's range, the situation is worse for you and I think calling is clearly better than raising. If they can backcap with 77, can't they also backcap with KQo and AQo?

Backcap is normally middle pocket pair and rarely suited connector. UTG+1 most likely has set, and maybe a small % of time qj and qk. Call down and pray for board pair or jack.