Hello, I'm a longtime lurker but first time poster. Here is my question. I'm thinking about playing in a brick and mortar 3/6 limit with a full kill game at a local casino. I used to play online before black Friday and prefer limit games that are no longer available. I'm thinking about playing again part time. I understand that low limit games usually are hard to beat due to the rake and tipping in a brick and mortar environment.

The local casino offers a promotion every morning that a hand with aces that are cracked receives $100.00 for the first 5 hands. I'm trying to figure out how that promotion will affect hourly rate expected. Here is my line of thought. The dealers are pretty competent so I'm figuring 30 hands per hour. The few times I've played in the game the aces are cracked usually within 4 hours, sometimes earlier sometimes later. The probability of getting aces 1/221 hands dealt. With 30 hands/hr times 4 hours = 120 hands per session. 120 times 5 = 600. I should receive aces 2.75 times per 5 sessions. I'm figuring aces are worth 50.00 on average. I will win the hand if I get aces or win $100 if I lose the hand. So if my math is correct (which it probably isn't), the cracked aces promotion should be worth about $137.50/20 = 6.87 per hour.

If I can make a big blind per hour along with the promotion and comps earned, the hourly should be around $13.50/hr expected. Thoughts?

The fact that you win if you don't get them cracked is not really relevant since that would happen even without promotion. If anything, you need to reduce your expectation the times you play hands where you don't get aces cracked because you are taking suboptimal lines if the promotion was disregarded.

I do think 6 an hour is about accurate for the promotion if there's no minimum pot size to qualify and you're playing 9 handed.

I think 1 BB an hour in the game aside from the promotion is unrealistic unless the game has low rake for some reason. Given that there's an aces cracked promotion, I am guessing they are taking a promotion drop out of the game in addition to the high rake.

When I play 3-6 or 4-8 with promotions, I figure I will break about even in the game and my full expectation is what I will win in promotions. I think that very few players are breaking even in these games with a typical rake structure. Fwiw I believe I can win about 0.5BB an hour at 8-16 which shows the dramatic difference due to the rake considering 8-16 players are significantly better.

Thanks for the input. I thought I might be off on the actual win rate due to the high rake and tipping. The play is pretty bad but I haven't played enough live games to create a valid sample size. Hopefully, they will legalize internet poker in the US and I can get back to playing from home. Otherwise, it seems that the 3/6 game as it stands is a break even proposition at best unless there is a promotion.

1. Internet poker is already legal in the US. PM BigBadBabar for the options.

2. $7/hr in promotions is unreasonable. A player generates $10-$20/hr in rake for the room, so expecting them to give back half for a promotion is unreasonable.

You can estimate the value a few different ways.

A. Many places follow a 25% rule for comps - they'll give back 25% of their take in comps. So if they expect to get $10/hr off of you, they'll offer $2-3/hr in comps.

B. You can note how many times the promotion pays out in a long time period, and then divide that by the number of players.

Thanks for the info. I'll occasionally check back with the thread about the legal options for the US. I'll have to go back and check again. The options for low limit hold' em for the US player in my State on the skins I've downloaded is nil. I could play some no limit games but limit games are rarely spread.

The casino has had this promotions for a couple of years which doesn't make much sense. They pay out 500 in aces cracked and generally spread 2 games in the morning. Usually, the 500 is gone by 12pm somtimes sooner and sometimes it can last until the late afternoon. But by my calculations, the casino is getting around $960 in rake for the time period but giving back $500 in promotion. 120 (rake/hr/table) * 2 (# of tables) * 4 (estimated hours of promotion) = 960.

My real question is whether it makes this game worth playing for a pt income? They also take a bad beat for quads. I still think the promotion is worth around $6/hr. If playing solid winning poker only nets break even considering high rake, tipping, and bad beat, it's probably not worth the $6/hr to play for income considerations. If I could make a BB/hr on top of the promotion, then it would be worth the time and effort.

$500 / 4 hours / 2 tables / 9-handed is $7/hr, which would be a pretty sweet deal.

You can work a full time job and still play the promotion hours?

While 7 an hour in promotions may not seem reasonable it is certainly possible in some places. I have seen promotions worth 15 an hour or more before. Generally they are able to do it by taking a large promotion drop and then having the players who play in non promotional hours subsidize the players playing during promotions.

Right. That's why I asked if OP could play during promotion hours. Usually they're terrible hours and the people who come out to play are breakeven nits who count on the promotion to make their $5/hr nut.

The promotion is everyday starting at 8am until the 500 is gone. During the weekends there usually is 3 tables going making it a little less attractive. It is hours that I can play, the lineup isn't bad. There are the nits but also some lags and few tags.

I received a pm from BigBadBabar (concerning legal internet options) but was unable to reply because of post limitations. I'm from Missouri. Hopefully, BBB reads this on the thread. Thx.

Most of these things are paid out of the jackpot fund. They cost the house nothing but a few hours of administrative work. Not a "promotion" in the same sense as comps.

OP's hourly would almost certainly be higher min-buying the smallest NL game and following a robotic short-stack strategy. Nobody beats live 3/6 for more than a fraction of a BB/hr. Plus it's cheaper to get your aces cracked.

where does the money for the Aces cracked promotion come from?

Thanks for the advice, it's been my experience the beating the 3/6 live game isn't really feasible. The main problem with playing the NL through this promotion is the game isn't spread during the morning hours. It's just older gentleman grinding it out generally playing limit.

I'm not sure if it's from a promotional fund or the jackpot fund. It would make sense to the casino to take it from the jakepot fund and I'm guessing by running the numbers that is the case.