8/16 9 handed live.

Villain(BB)...he will bet the turn 100% of the time after the flop checks through. His range when betting the turn is KJs+ AJo+ KQo ATs+. I do not consider bluffing him on the turn or river since he is quite suspicious of me. He probably folds the river if an 8 hits and I bet. If a J hits he will call with his Ace highs. He will just call AJ.

3 players limp, I complete in SB with Jd8h, BB raises, all call

5c6d2s...it gets checked around.

5c6d2s9h...BB bets, folded to me.

I crunched the numbers and I have about 21% equity. I'm not good when it comes to analyzing a hand with numbers. How do you use this information to make your decision? What kind of pot odds do we need to profitably continue?
How do you factor in IO, RIO etc.

I'm more of an intuitive player but would like to understand the mathematical side better.

Thanks!

i'd recommend checking out the books 'small stakes holdem' by sklansky miller and malmuth

and 'weighing the odds in holdem poker' by king yao

both of them will have some solid basic/intermediate math stuff in them that should help you out a bunch.

good luck!

Why was this moved?

Where was it moved too?

The math of this spot is a clear fold. You have 6 outs to make one pair which isn't even close. And your implied odds are negative for sure.

BUT. What does he have? Does anything make sense? Will he fold a lot if you bloof?

it's been moved to micro stakes limit holdem - you can see what forum you're in at the top of the page

i moved it because it's a very basic question and i think you'll get good replies here

I also have a gutshot.

I highly disagree this is a very basic question. It would have been much better served in the other forum.

Happy? You're back in Small Stakes.

I have to agree with BBB that if you've already stoved 21% equity and you're getting 6:1 to call a turn bet that you've boiled it down to pretty simple maths. Oddly, the micros folk tend to be the more numbers based group and you had a decent chance of getting people to really put some numbers out for you.

okay, we'll have to agree to disagree then. it seems like your question is about pot odds which is a pretty basic and fundamental part of limit holdem. those two books i recommended would definitely help you learn it, and i think they'd be a useful addition to your poker library.

as you've probably noticed from my posts, i'm much more a fan of teaching someone how to get to the answer on their own, as opposed to just giving them the answer. that first group also always ends up being the stronger players imo.

Stove is a calculator. The number that appears on the screen is no more useful than a random number if all the buttons you pressed first were wrong.

What range did you put in for Villain to get a 21% equity? What if that range is wrong?

Bet turn. Nobody has ****. The fact you sorta wanna call means you were better off putting the bet in yourself. As played it feels like a Leary eyed fold your outs are few and mostly obv

Yes I'm happy.

As you can see I'm getting a lot more responses here, compared to nothin in the micros.

Thank you for moving this back to small stakes!

I will check out King Yao's book. I've read Small Stakes.

This fact escaped me.

Funny, I read Jesse's first response and thought, "oh, I should discount my pair outs more I guess."

I'm guessing the indifference point would be ~4.87:1, but I'm an optimist when it comes to discounting pair outs.

I mean his pair outs weren't even to toppest pear. But with the gutterball it seems fine to just peel n bing.

If the big blind's turn betting range is as mongidig states, then our pair outs are deceptively clean.

As stated in the thread before, the numbers are only as useful as your assumptions. To me, your assumptions sound unreasonable

Questions for you to think about:

When you put him on such a specific no-pair range, and you say you can't bluff, are you saying he'll call 3 big bets with no pair to realize his equity? If he won't and you can "see" his range so precisely then you have to raise, and then barrel the river, he'll river something a small % of the time, but you'll win the rest of the time. What does your intuition tell you?

Why would someone who checks the flop fearfully decide to call a turn check raise and river with no pair?

If you think it's close just call. Being sticky is good.