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Weird Runout - Interesting River Spot Weird Runout - Interesting River Spot

11-10-2014 , 03:04 PM
Villain is LAG who has went to showdown with out of position 3-barrel bluffs and hands where he 3-barrel bet the nuts. Image is spewy but not clueless/incompetent.

Hero (UTG+1) Calls 66
UTG+2 Posts in dead blind, checks
Late position calls
SB completes
BB (villain) checks

5 players to the flop:

3x5Q

SB checks
Villain bets
Hero calls
UTG+2 folds
LP folds
SB folds

Turn:

4x

Villain bets
Hero calls

River:

Ax

Villain bets
Hero???
Weird Runout - Interesting River Spot Quote
11-10-2014 , 05:10 PM
Not enough information to determine if I like preflop.

I think you should raise flop.

As played, I think you should raise turn.

As played, I think you should call river.
Weird Runout - Interesting River Spot Quote
11-10-2014 , 06:48 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by CrazyLond

I think you should raise flop.

As played, I think you should raise turn.
I do not like raising the flop here with 3 people left to act behind me.

I do agree that the turn raise could be a better play in this spot, but if the villain folds -- we are potentially losing 1 BB of value on this hand. Remember, villain will 3-barrel bet hands even if unimproved.
Weird Runout - Interesting River Spot Quote
11-10-2014 , 07:09 PM
Raising the flop to make 3 players have to call two cold when you have a vulnerable hand seems appealing to me
Weird Runout - Interesting River Spot Quote
11-10-2014 , 07:30 PM
Just fold the flop. Too much of a parlay to beat four players here.
Weird Runout - Interesting River Spot Quote
11-11-2014 , 04:33 AM
I definitely think calling is the worst of your three options on the flop.
Weird Runout - Interesting River Spot Quote
11-11-2014 , 05:18 AM
Quote:
Originally Posted by chillrob
I definitely think calling is the worst of your three options on the flop.
+1

raise or fold flop seems best. pre-flop call seems okay with the dead blind post if we're generally seeing 4+ way flops.
Weird Runout - Interesting River Spot Quote
11-11-2014 , 09:40 AM
I think your hand is strong enough to continue. SB has already checked..you have a "spewy" lag betting out and one of the players behind you posted and elected to just check.

I would raise the flop

As played, I would call the turn. I think raising is bad against a spewy player who is capable of a 3 barrel bluff.

I would call the river.
Weird Runout - Interesting River Spot Quote
11-11-2014 , 06:09 PM
I'd raise pre, but don't think limping is awful.

I like the flop call. Villain is a LAG, so we can't fold. Raising doesn't protect our hand -- any calls from a 3 or 5 are -EV and should be encouraged. If it gets raised behind by a straightforward player, we fold for cheap. Flatting is balanced since we can also flat with a Q, planning to 'price out' flush-draws and other big draws on the turn with a raise.

Turn looks like an easy FSDR spot.
Weird Runout - Interesting River Spot Quote
11-11-2014 , 06:50 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by phunkphish
I'd raise pre, but don't think limping is awful.

I like the flop call. Villain is a LAG, so we can't fold. Raising doesn't protect our hand -- any calls from a 3 or 5 are -EV and should be encouraged. If it gets raised behind by a straightforward player, we fold for cheap. Flatting is balanced since we can also flat with a Q, planning to 'price out' flush-draws and other big draws on the turn with a raise.

Turn looks like an easy FSDR spot.
My thought on the turn raise is to fold out overcards since villians behind us are likely to have two overcards that they may fold to two bets but would call for one.
Weird Runout - Interesting River Spot Quote
11-11-2014 , 07:31 PM
How does raising the flop not protect our hand? There could be a lot of draws out there. People may peel something like KJ with one club for one bet. Even a 5 outer small pair hand is going to pretty much have odds to call if you just call. A raise could possibly fold out 77-JJ if someone limped in with those, which would also be great.
Weird Runout - Interesting River Spot Quote
11-11-2014 , 08:08 PM
A 5 outer doesn't have immediate odds to call getting 7-1. IO and RIO cancel out IMO, since many who call with a 3/5 will make incorrect turn calls when they miss.

Any 6-outer comes with poor visibility and poor IO.

I like raising a lot more with A5, which has more equity the times we face a q or aggressive flush draw
Weird Runout - Interesting River Spot Quote
11-12-2014 , 09:55 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by phunkphish
A 5 outer doesn't have immediate odds to call getting 7-1. IO and RIO cancel out IMO, since many who call with a 3/5 will make incorrect turn calls when they miss.

Any 6-outer comes with poor visibility and poor IO.

I like raising a lot more with A5, which has more equity the times we face a q or aggressive flush draw
This is a bad spot to FSDR. You can't fold if you get 3 bet. Just let this guy barell and raise if you improve.

As far as the flop goes, it's gonna make things a lot easier if you raise and get this HU. If the turn goes off MW it's gonna be hard to tell were you'r at if over cards hit.

Last edited by mongidig; 11-12-2014 at 10:03 PM.
Weird Runout - Interesting River Spot Quote
11-12-2014 , 11:57 PM
I'm raising the flop against this loose player with the best hand a lot of times.

I'm also happy when villains with over cards fold behind me.
Weird Runout - Interesting River Spot Quote
11-13-2014 , 02:08 AM
1) How often does someone already have us beat.
2) How much equity do we lose if behind and we raise.
3) How much equity do we lose if ahead and we flat.


1) Assuming everyone has a random hand, someone has a better hand on the flop ~58% of the time. (If we remove TT+, we are beat 52%)
2) When behind, by raising flop, we cost ourselves about 87% of a SB.
3) When behind, by flatting, I estimate we cost ourselves a very small amount of equity.

I will agree that there is a lot of upside in raising out 77-JJ, but I doubt this happens very often.
Weird Runout - Interesting River Spot Quote
11-13-2014 , 03:56 AM
With your assumptions and our call, how often are their calls behind us? With your stats, I assume you have ranges for everyone. I think everyone tidying to its who has position is rare (less than 10% with no stove calcs)
Weird Runout - Interesting River Spot Quote
11-13-2014 , 10:57 AM
If I raised turn I would also value bet most rivers as I think he can have a smaller card that paired a lot.

I don't think the possibility of a 3 bet bluff should prevent us from raising turn, I think it just makes our river decision easier if the turn is 3 bet.
Weird Runout - Interesting River Spot Quote
11-13-2014 , 02:04 PM
I'm not liking flop call with three left to act, especially without 6c. But if we'd raised pre, we can represent more with flop aggression, and probably have fewer opponents to begin with. Calling pre is more appropriate to a full table loose-passive game.
Weird Runout - Interesting River Spot Quote
11-13-2014 , 07:13 PM
I think you should be coming in with a raise preflop as a standard/default. Don't deviate from this until you're more comfortable w/ postflop play.

Flop seems like a must-raise, given description. He could be betting his club draws, straight draws, or even a hand like J5. At this level, I'm probably still firing turn if someone calls two cold.

As played, it's pretty unlikely the A helped villain, so he's either betting w/ a strong hand (Queens up, 42), or is bluffing. He won't value bet a Q on that river. So since he should have any two clubs in his hand (and the Q on board makes it more likely he's barreling, IMO, since it's unlikely he'd bet a hand like K3 here), I'd go ahead and call.
Weird Runout - Interesting River Spot Quote

      
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