In my attempts to get in more pots with the fishes @ 4/8 Limit, is my understanding of this concept correct. Using this example below, Hero is the middle position with A2s. Say the pot was raised preflop, therefore 10 bb (no rake taken just for this example). If MP3 was to bet, followed by all calls, when action gets to HERO, HERO gets 14:1 on a call. First, Hero has 22% equity, therefore a slight 2% pot equity edge (profitable). Secondly, SSHE states that for 6 outs, you only need 6.7:1 to call (also profitable). So my real question is, is it -EV to be calling to see a Turn with bottom pair good kicker in scenarios similar to this?


Board: 248 (10bb)
*******Equity*****Win*****Tie
MP2****22.39%**22.39%***0.00%*{ Ad2d } <-----------HERO
MP3*****5.33%***4.32%***1.01%*{ 7d7h }
CO*****42.60%**41.58%***1.01%*{ 8s7s }
BU*****17.27%**17.27%***0.00%*{ KcJs }
SB*****12.41%**12.41%***0.00%*{ JhTc }

Uh, what % of the time do you need to win to make 14:1 odds profitable? Hint: it is much less than 22%. Perhaps do a little google searching on pot odds.

yeah, it's the size of the pot, not the number of players in, that matters most

welcome to the forum btw

In a pot where you have 22% chance of winning, you only need 1:5 or even 1:4 to call if you can make a bet or two when you hit. Obviously your situation is an easy call.

That challenge is that in a real game situation you don't know what others hold. Someone with A8 has your A2 crushed. Your odds of winning would be much worse than 22%. Also, if it was raised pre, there's a good chance someone is holding a larger pair. Your % win vs A8 and QQ is small - and if someone flopped a set you're drawing dead to running aces, deuces or spades that don't pair the board.

That said, I'd still peel the flop closing the action in your spot - but am folding unimproved on the turn 100% of the time.

I'd peel that. Don't forget to include implied odds in your calculations. If they'll go nuts with an overpair when the 2 pairs(omg two pair) then you're getting huge implied odds on the big streets.

How big the pot is likely to get is really the only consideration. from there you assess and modify outs and weigh risk vs reward.

thanks!

^ Thanks, this was exactly what I was looking for.

My next question, are there any arguments for opening 45s, 67s, 78s, in late position when there are 2+ limpers to bloat the pot and attempt to offset the rake somewhat. If 5 players go to the flop, you would be getting a 9.5:1 versus 4.5:1 when flopping a big draw. Or would this be a valuebet against myself. I fold everything pf when there are <4 players in 4/8 due to rake. I also realize this may be situational as well and there probably isn't a definitive answer.

I would tend to make this play only with the higher suited connectors. When 78s, 89s, 9Ts, JTs make a pair it's more likely to be good than when 45s, 56s, 67s, makes a pair, and yeah I'd draw that line between 67s and 78s.

Also, I wouldn't do this as a standard play, but it's good for your image to mix up your raising range every now and again. If you show down 78s as a winner after raising pre a lot of people will label you a loose player and you'll get more action and more call downs. Of course you'll have to adjust to your new table image for a while.

Against 2 players I'd still limp 45s as the blinds are likely to play giving us minimum 5 players.

Finally I wouldn't fold 'everything' preflop when there are less than 4 players in. Look for places to isolate weak limpers and steal blinds. It's good practice for when you move to a bigger game.

Why are you in this hand with a2 in mp in a raised pot? Did you overlimp and did it get it raised later or did you cc a raise from up front? Preflop is important too.

As played count the pot and put your opponents ranges. You have 5 outs needing 8:1 immediate to call. You're getting that but you're hoping for a second deuce because an ace falling can counterfeit your 2p if others are in there with A4 or A8 ... Doesn't happen often but it happens. It's the problem with playing these holdings. Something to keep in mind. Just don't go bonkers if you hit your two pair that's all.

Memorize your odds and count the pot and you'll have a fun time playing this game. welcome to the forums bro.

you offset the rake best by avoiding hands that dont outpace it.

simple math says you don't offset playing against a 5% rake with a 4% edge you exacerbate it. sitck with hands that show a greater profit than the cost of the rake and you do much better. its simple economics. reduce fixed costs and seek to reduce incidentals.

I doubt it would really matter much if you decide to raise with those hands or not.

Maybe I don't understand you correctly. Are you saying you fold big pocket pairs, or AK, with less than 4 players in the pot when you're on the button? Or do you really mean that you fold almost everything? Maybe you meant that you'll fold hands like KT or A8. Or did you mean you fold all the suited connectors you mentioned earlier when you're in late position?