Quote:
Originally Posted by thesilverbail
John, if you were to re-do the math you did millions of hands ago, how would you proceed? Specifically how would you account for the impact of post flop play? I agree that this case is almost surely not close but I am interested in the general approach.
FWIW I think ATo is close and is going to depend a lot on limpers ranges.
Ill tell you what I tried to do when I started playing (I'm sure there are better ways and lots of my math/assumptions were liekly wrong and time consuming). I just took old fashion white board and tried to do decion trees (sometimes with friends, sometimes alone) on various spots.... What's our equity when we flop a pair, a gutter, nothing, now does each spot most likely play out. Some assumptions were crude and prob wrong but they gave me what u thought was a decent framework to work with.
Then when I felt I had decent grasp I put 1k online with the goal of playing a million hands. After a big enough sample you can get a decent idea kf what works and hat doesn't as well as your Winrate for various hands given various conditions. How much do I win with A-10, A-J and A-q after I raise with 2 limpers for example..... Obviously we don't have data on how much we win when limping but we have data for All other players when they limp (they'll play worse post howver).
Then we can also look at various situations? How much do we win on average with AJo raising 2 limpers when we flop an ace, flop a jack, and miss. Then how much do we lose when we brick flop. Take those winrates and apply it to how often we flop a pair, gutter, or nothing and see if our ogrional calculations/estimations were accurate.
I'm sure there are lots of programs/sims that can do most of this for you now but i want smart enouh then do know how to do those. I also found the problem solving to be a very valuable tool in learning how to think about limit holdem correctly