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Semi-bluff C/R? Semi-bluff C/R?

08-11-2014 , 05:40 PM
Hey Guys,

I was wondering what you think of c/r as a semi-bluff? I've noticed quite a lot of fold-throughs to C/R's.

Here are two hands I had in mind:

First hand, I raise UTG with AJ. Get called by extremely tight player to my immediate left, and the big blind. 5sb.

Flop 479r, I bet (because this player played fit-or-fold post-flop), tight player raises, bb folds, I call (not thinking it's a profitable call, but if I start folding to flop-raises heads-up it would be conspicuous)

Turn is K, no flush. I C/R, he calls. River is a blank. I bet.

Second hand, I call a button raise from BB with 56d. 4 players to flop.
Flop is q85 with a single diamond, checks to button who bets, I call and another player calls.

Turn is non-diamond 7, checks to button who bets. I raise. River is 4, I bet, but I would bet all non-queen rivers.

Thank you for your input - it's always enlightening!
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08-11-2014 , 10:02 PM
First hand- he bet again after you c/r'd him, I'd say you're boned. Likely has a pocket pair, possibly TT+ he's not going anywhere. He's not calling without at least a pair, which you don't have.

Second hand, well played. Nice hand. I can't see anything wrong there. Semi bluff c/r is a solid move, when you hit it's even better.
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08-11-2014 , 10:34 PM
Yeah, the more I think about the first hand, the more stupid I realize it was/ based on a read :-). I knew he had tt-qq because we've been playing for hours and he is perfectly transparent (so KK and AA would wait for turn to raise), and I knew he liked to fold big to C/R ( showed me top-pair fold on another hand). He called the turn out of stubborness, and folded the river, but really that play is a little ridiculous in retrospect (sometimes my ego gets the best of me, and I just want to see how good my read is)
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08-12-2014 , 12:38 AM
Your read was so good, you found it worth two extra bets!
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08-12-2014 , 02:49 AM
Quote:
Originally Posted by BaconMaker
Your read was so good, you found it worth two extra bets!
Three, actually, cause there's no reason to call turn with you're not raising as a bluff. No doubt reads arent that good and i got lucky.
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08-12-2014 , 04:57 AM
it's interesting that you are willing to make aggressive plays postflop but not necessarily preflop (like in that other thread where we talked about raising or 3betting multiway preflop when you have an equity advantage)
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08-12-2014 , 06:37 AM
Quote:
Originally Posted by BigBadBabar
it's interesting that you are willing to make aggressive plays postflop but not necessarily preflop (like in that other thread where we talked about raising or 3betting multiway preflop when you have an equity advantage)
Yeah, not smthing i usually do. just when i have a mystical soul-read. how do you feel about 56 hand?
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08-12-2014 , 05:37 PM
if button cbets his whole range then my first instinct is to checkraise the flop.

if not, then i like your flop line, and think the turn is meh/not my favorite/but not the worst either
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08-15-2014 , 01:33 PM
I don't like the turn check raise with AJ, but I like the second one because you have a lot of outs and that's how I'd play turned monster. If all else is equal, the more outs you have then the more profitable your semibluffs are.
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08-15-2014 , 02:09 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by Bob148
I don't like the turn check raise with AJ, but I like the second one because you have a lot of outs and that's how I'd play turned monster. If all else is equal, the more outs you have then the more profitable your semibluffs are.
This is pretty much what I was going to post. I'd also like to add that you need to realistically think your opponent is going to bet/fold or at least fold to a river barrel some of the time. I see people make semi-bluffs against opponents that are never folding all the time and I think it's a huge mistake.
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08-15-2014 , 03:34 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by BaconMaker
.

Second hand, well played. Nice hand. I can't see anything wrong there. Semi bluff c/r is a solid move, when you hit it's even better.
You guys that like the "bluff" in hand 2 realize it actually requires the button to fold a better hand.
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08-15-2014 , 05:25 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by Jon_locke
You guys that like the "bluff" in hand 2 realize it actually requires the button to fold a better hand.
I'm pondering whether the turn XR has value to knock out the third player than as a semibluff (although it could have value for both). If our opponent might have a better 5, a 9, or a 4, then their fold helps us. Meanwhile, we have nine outs to improve, reducing the cost of this maneuver. I'm not sure it's worth it from that perspective.

If our opponent might barrel twice with hands we beat, then our XR could be for value (and make knocking the third player out much much better), but that seems unlikely.

Meanwhile, I agree with Jon, the only hands we might be trying to get to fold the river are 99-JJ. So I'm not sure that betting a river miss is profitable.
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08-15-2014 , 05:58 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by Jon_locke
You guys that like the "bluff" in hand 2 realize it actually requires the button to fold a better hand.
I used to think that correct bluffing had to require that the opponent folded better hands, but now I'm of the opinion that betting or raising only has to show a higher profit than calling down or folding, without the requirement of folding better hands. In hand 2, I think calling down and raising are both profitable, but I'm not sure which is more profitable.
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08-15-2014 , 07:22 PM
That's a confusing reply, Bob148. Getting a better hand to fold is (in part) instrumental to the bigger task of maximizing EV.

Saying you no longer care whether it gets better hands to fold is a bit like saying you don't care whether the machinery works as long as a car comes out of the assembly line. OK, in a sense that's true--the company doesn't get paid for keeping the machinery working. But in another sense, that doesn't make any sense unless you have an alternative way to produce a car without the machinery.
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08-15-2014 , 11:42 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by AKQJ10
That's a confusing reply, Bob148. Getting a better hand to fold is (in part) instrumental to the bigger task of maximizing EV.
Not necessarily. It's just a matter of fold equity. Bluffs have no memory in that once the opponent folds, we no longer care what they had.
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08-16-2014 , 07:21 AM
Quote:
Originally Posted by Jon_locke
You guys that like the "bluff" in hand 2 realize it actually requires the button to fold a better hand.
Yeah hand 2 is horrendous. Hand 1 is creative.
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08-16-2014 , 06:57 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by Jon_locke
You guys that like the "bluff" in hand 2 realize it actually requires the button to fold a better hand.
Just the other day I check-raised turn and guy fold-showed AK on kjxj board. People are folding A LOT to check-raises. (I had him then, but it just goes to show...)
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08-16-2014 , 06:58 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by jesse8888
Yeah hand 2 is horrendous. Hand 1 is creative.
Saying something is "horrendous" is pretty stupid :-). Do you actually have thoughts on the issue, or just silly value-judgments?
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08-16-2014 , 07:02 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by AKQJ10

Meanwhile, I agree with Jon, the only hands we might be trying to get to fold the river are 99-JJ. So I'm not sure that betting a river miss is profitable.
from the way he tank-folded on the river, I'd say he folded top-pair. Next time you're playing 6-12, ask yourself how often you've had to showdown a turn check-raise. I'd say my rough estimates are at 33 percent, which suggests it is incredibly valuable as a play on any given hand (except that if done frequently, the gig would be up...)
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08-23-2014 , 10:20 AM
Quote:
Originally Posted by Bob148
Not necessarily. It's just a matter of fold equity. Bluffs have no memory in that once the opponent folds, we no longer care what they had.
Quote:
Originally Posted by Jon_locke
You guys that like the "bluff" in hand 2 realize it actually requires the button to fold a better hand.
I was hoping for some more discussion about this. I tried to multiquote Jesse and AKQJ10 as well, but for some reason it's not working. If you guys, or anyone else, has thoughts about this I'd appreciate hearing those thoughts as I was on the fence regarding bluffing range construction for a while.

Now, I think that it's just a bonus if and when the opponent folds a better hand, though I don't believe this is a necessary function of bluffing. I just think that betting or raising has to show a higher profit than calling or folding for a bet or raise to be correct. Of course, there's really no way to prove this with conventional ev calculations because there are too many assumptions, and therefore mistakes, to be made in the calculation for it to yield any meaningful results.

I've discussed this at ridiculous length in both the poker theory forum and the books n publications forum. Here are some links for anyone interested:

http://forumserver.twoplustwo.com/33...hread-1407391/

http://forumserver.twoplustwo.com/15...ction-1422146/
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08-24-2014 , 10:30 PM
You barely mentioned anything about reads. You said one player was really tight but didn't mention how aggressive he was. Without better reads I'm not sure what to think.

Also what level are you playing at? That makes a difference.
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