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Old 07-04-2012, 04:57 PM   #16
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Re: QJs OTB

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Originally Posted by asmitty View Post
what a great contribution
My post was a far more useful 'contribution' than yours.

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That's a fair assessment Was suffering from some ROT-ten thinking after watching the miracle river 9 roll out after doing the incredibly easy plays on each street. Only getting to play occasionally so just needed a sanity check that I hadn't missed something.
I get it, and it's easy to feel like you did the wrong thing when you would have won, but the math is straightforward - you have 4 outs to a winner and you're being faced with 2BB in a 15 bet pot = 1:7.5 odds on your call with slightly worse than 1:11 chance of making your hand and you're not closing the action to boot.

Good fold.

Last edited by Lagitup; 07-04-2012 at 05:04 PM.
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Old 07-04-2012, 05:25 PM   #17
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Re: QJs OTB

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Originally Posted by DylanDog04 View Post
Mega-Easy fold now. You are beating nothing here and have no flush or st8 draws.
What a great contribution. The only way it could be more wrong is if it explained the reasoning behind it.
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Old 07-04-2012, 08:45 PM   #18
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Re: QJs OTB

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Originally Posted by Lagitup View Post
This doesn't seem like a forum-worthy post. Incredibly easy call on the flop and incredibly easy fold on the turn.
I think it's fine. I've seen posts with easier decisions than this (this particular forum does have newer players show up occasionally). I've also seen posts with people making big mistakes on decisions that were easier than this. If someone posts a hand that isn't difficult, people will agree on what to do, there won't be much discussion, and the post won't remain on the first page for very long.
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Old 07-04-2012, 10:23 PM   #19
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Re: QJs OTB

I don't mind these kind of threads. We don't know how much lhe OP has played and often enough ppl start to outthink themselves: 'There might be more than this, maybe there's something fancy I ought to do.' This one is just a reality check and could be helpful for OP to know that 'fancy' is most often not the way to go.
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Old 07-04-2012, 10:59 PM   #20
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Re: QJs OTB

Flop is a straight forward call.

If I read the action right, you are faced with calling 2 bb in a 15bb pot, 16bb if we assume v1 will call. The pot is laying you 8:1 odds. With 4 outs, you are 11:1 to make your gut shot on the river. With two flush draws on the board, you may not even have 4 outs, meaning 14:1 or worse.

You could argue that implied odds make this closer to a call. You have to assume that when the gut shot hits, you can win at least 3 more bets on the river. This might be true some of the time, but it is problematic. If v1 checks, v2 bets and you raise, v1 might fold and v2 call. It is also possible v2 was raising a flush draw maybe with a pair, and will check/fold the river. Some of the time v1 or v2 will make a flush on the river, and you will lose more.

The implied odds make it closer, but IMO fold is the best option.

Just because you don't have the odds to call with a gut shot, doesn't mean the gut shot will not come on the river. One in eleven times the gut shot will come. The fish see this and start calling down gut shots when they don't have the odds. You should only call when you have the odds or implied odds.
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Old 07-04-2012, 11:48 PM   #21
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Re: QJs OTB

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Originally Posted by AlanBostick View Post
What a great contribution. The only way it could be more wrong is if it explained the reasoning behind it.
I take this back; I didn't see that OP had followed up with turn action.

(But bear in mind that a tainted gutshot draw is not the same thing as no straight draw)
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Old 07-05-2012, 12:03 AM   #22
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Originally Posted by danspartan View Post
Ok we call. V1 cr. 5 go to the turn. 12bb in pot.

Turn 6 puts two flush on board but not ours.

V1 leads. V2 2! 2 folds. Hero.....
My thinking when we get raised ott is this:"If he has a nine im drawing to three outs to a chop getting 7.5:1" ... once the niner ball rolls off I shrug my shoulders much the same way when I fold 99 pf facing 4 bets and my niner falls OTF. When you play a lot that's the kind of **** you get used to in this dumb game ...
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Old 07-05-2012, 12:06 AM   #23
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Originally Posted by asmitty View Post
what a great contribution
+1 Ya srsly...
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Old 07-05-2012, 01:18 AM   #24
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Re: QJs OTB

Ya I was pretty comfortable with decisions live. Just hated the 9 on the river and was wanting a line check on the flop call. Only thing i come up with is that I could have priced myself in, so to speak. Of course that would have been way spewy.

/thread ?
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Old 07-05-2012, 01:17 PM   #25
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Re: QJs OTB

Id say 5.5 outs maybe a wee bit more for the BD BW str8.
your odds on to see the turn at least if you dont improve in some way ( 9 Q J or K)you are probably folding to turn bets against multiple players unless you KNOW you will get multiple bets or multiway action on the river if your pat comes in. problem is unless the turn comes good you will be losing at least some of your outs. because the only Qs&Js that might hang are those that can crush you

Last edited by timmer; 07-05-2012 at 01:20 PM. Reason: turn R? 2 me BWAHAHAHA next hand !!
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Old 07-05-2012, 04:09 PM   #26
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Originally Posted by AlanBostick View Post
I take this back; I didn't see that OP had followed up with turn action.

(But bear in mind that a tainted gutshot draw is not the same thing as no straight draw)
Dan Alan
I completely misread the flop and missed the gut shot. Sorry. I was reading the thread from my phone and didn't scroll back far enough to double check.

As far as not explaining the reasoning, no excuse for that either. I will take the time to prepare intelligent replys going forward.
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Old 07-06-2012, 02:34 PM   #27
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Re: QJs OTB

Late to the party, but simply agree with prior advice: call flop, fold turn. Neither decision seems close at all to me.
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