Folding TP to a spewer/bluffer that's out to get us when we can showdown for the same price is a bad idea imo.

i mean im never folding here. But are we not even a bit concerned about valuetowning our self against qj+ qq+??? he is 3 betting out of the big blind in live poker and over the age of 45 so that usually means he has something that was crushing my range, pf anyways...

In theory yes absolutely and at game speed I don't think I could.fold either LOL. Its just my experience that a 3! Ott in this game is very rarely a bluff.

You're right though. Folding is out of the question.

I'm not sure how he can be a pretty bad lag, but at the same time have a range so strong you don't want to raise this turn card? Maybe it would be helpful for you to give us your estimation of his range preflop.

I like a turn raise and not a river raise so much. Waiting for the river allows him to Ch/Call all his ace hi and weak pairs, where as he's going to probably Bet/Call down all of these if we raise the turn.

Now if he's the type to just randomly 3-barrel AJ and call a river raise, then waiting to the river becomes good I think, but these are pretty extreme circumstances imo.

I like a turn raise - especially against a hateful lag. Even if he mucks the turn and we lose a bet getting him more on tilt is a good thing - and raising the turn will get him steaming. If he really hates you he'll call down a lot of the time too with a worse hand.

If he 3-bets and has AA, KK, or AQ, then don't worry about it and move on. In general hateful/angry players are on life tilt and they'll give it back sooner or later.

i raise the river too. i think this guy is way more likely to b/f the turn than the river because (a) your hand looks like a Q if you raise the turn, and looks like a 2 or a desperate bluff if you raise the river and (b) i think he'll actually call down lighter because he knows that there's no more betting after he calls. i think it's super super rare to see someone 3bet bluff the turn at these stakes so i don't think we induce spew by raising the turn. finally, if he has nothing, we'd rather get him to barrel off for one more street than shut down on the turn once we raise. i know it's "fancy" and apparently therefore bad, but i think that in this particular spot and dynamic raising river is just far far superior to raising turn.

Asmitty, aren't you concerned with all the bluff catchers he's just going to check the river with and ruin our plan? I'm not sure the number of extra bets we induce from his bluffs outweighs all the hands he'll Ch/C the river with.

Also, I don't think there are a ton of hands in his range that are going to Bet/Fold the turn when we raise. Anything from T8-KT has a GS+over to second pair, which I doubt is folding. I doubt any pair from villain is folding.

I guess if you put his range as a ton of airballs on the turn, then waiting to the river becomes better, I just don't see how we can weight it that way.

I agree we probably don't induce much spew with a turn raise and we have sad call down, but can we raise/fold the river either?

In my experience in this room at that game you will rarely get 3! On the turn as light as aa, kk, and aq. Most people with aa in this game get raised on the turn immediately go into check call mode afraid of sets and 2 pr.

I raise the river here, a bit for balance, but mostly because you will get underpairs to call one more bet where they would be inclined to fold the turn stating something about how lucky you are, chasing cards, bla bla bla.

I agree with this post. Give him a reason to hate you.

If he calls the turn raise, but then check/calls the river, we're still ahead, unless I'm missing something.

Basically arguing that I think he will Ch/Call the river with a lot of hands that will Bet/Call the turn & Ch/C the river, so we miss value by delaying to the river. Also, I don't think we get as many folds with a turn a turn raise as others are predicting.

My feedback was based on the description of the villain - a hateful lag. In my experience 'hateful' people are capable of all kinds of outlandish thing, and can definitely 3! here with any of the hands I mentioned - and even hands that we beat.