Oceans 8/16: Hand v. Expert - Page 2 - Small Stakes Poker Forum

If he's got 55 he should c/r the flop some % of the time and c/r the turn some % of the time. My default would be c/r flop and lead turn hoping to get raised and have an opportunity to 3! hero.

I disagree with this type of mixed strategy. If you're going to play a mixed strategy, then mix the hands on the margins. This is because if a hand is on the margin that separates two plays of equal ev, then strategic considerations become the overriding factor.

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10-07-2014 , 10:05 PM

#27

GeorgeW

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Join Date: Jun 2011 Posts: 79

At every opportunity you have either bet or raised, so villain must think there is a high probability that you will at least call the raise. Consequently he is probably not bluffing. You can only beat a bluff.

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10-08-2014 , 12:27 AM

#28

lawdude

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Quote:

Originally Posted by GeorgeW

The thing is, if we fold too often on the river for one additional bet, he may start bluffing.

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10-11-2014 , 12:13 AM

#29

GeorgeW

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Join Date: Jun 2011 Posts: 79

Quote:

Originally Posted by lawdude

The thing is, if we fold too often on the river for one additional bet, he may start bluffing.

This player has been characterized as an expert so he should be bluffing at a near optimum frequency already. This doesn't seem to me to be a good bluffing opportunity since hero hasn't shown any sign of weakness.

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10-12-2014 , 12:23 AM

#30

lawdude

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Quote:

Originally Posted by GeorgeW

If he bluffs optimally, this is a bet call. DUCY?

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10-12-2014 , 09:25 AM

#31

jesse8888

Yes, you barred

Join Date: May 2007 Posts: 16,685

Quote:

Originally Posted by Jon_locke

Shrug, call, lose.

Yeah you can't fold AQ vs an expert here

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10-13-2014 , 09:24 PM

#32

GeorgeW

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Join Date: Jun 2011 Posts: 79

Quote:

Originally Posted by lawdude

If he bluffs optimally, this is a bet call. DUCY?

As you said there are seven BBs in the pot. Optimal bluffing frequency would be one bluff per seven folds or calls. After the experts c/r there are nine BBs. since the the expert is bluffing one in eight and hero is getting nine to one he must call. Thanks for reminding us of this important consideration.

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10-13-2014 , 09:33 PM

#33

Bob148

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Quote:

Originally Posted by GeorgeW

If the expert is check raise bluffing at the frequency that would make the op indifferent with his bluffcatchers, then it wouldn't matter what the op did.

That frequency would depend on the price the caller is getting on his final call, which is 9:1, or 10% bluffing frequency, or actually slightly more than that because of rake. If the op wanted to make the expert indifferent to check raise bluffing, then he should bet call depending on the price that the expert is getting on his bluff, or 7:2, or 77.7777777% calling frequency after betting.

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10-14-2014 , 03:28 AM

#34

Boggy Depot

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Join Date: Dec 2006 Posts: 50

Still don't see why we just don't check-call the river. Is expert really going to just call a bet with a lesser Ace or under-pair often enough to make this a value bet situation?

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10-14-2014 , 05:30 AM

#35

phunkphish

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Join Date: Aug 2011 Posts: 2,902

Seems like a typical auto-pilot line.

If villain is indeed expert, parse out your river vbet range and count combos. You are facing 9-1, so you should call the top 90% of your range. To go a step further, you should also 3b-bluff the top sliver of your vbet/folding range.

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10-14-2014 , 05:08 PM

#36

ZOMG_RIGGED!

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Quote:

Originally Posted by GeorgeW

The better answer is that is you start folding to an expert on the river for one bet, he's going to start bluffing you more and putting you in gross spots.

If you do fold do it quickly and laugh as you ask "88 no good?"

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10-14-2014 , 05:32 PM

#37

bakku

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Join Date: Feb 2004 Posts: 4,925

played a hand last night with the exact same action with a slightly different board against a bb who is better than i am. i shrugged, i called, i won

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10-16-2014 , 10:15 AM

#38

leo doc

Most interesting man on 2p2

Join Date: Jun 2007 Posts: 12,132

Quote:

Originally Posted by bakku

played a hand last night with the exact same action with a slightly different board against a bb who is better than i am. i shrugged, i called, i won

Some days you get the bear, some days he gets you...

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