I open AQo UTG. SB calls. He is persian and bad at poker. BB calls. He is an expert, plays much higher, and is pretty LAGgy.

Flop AK5cc. I bet, SB folds, BB calls.

Turn 7d. BB check/calls.

River 9c. BB check/raises. BB knows that his line looks very strong and knows that I know that his line looks very strong. I tank for a very long time and pay off.

I would prefer a call without tanking. You're beat a ton but expert will adjust to exploit you if you never call in these spots. I think aq is top of my non 3 betting range so if I fold it I never call with anything and villain can start making very profitable river bluffs against me.

Shrug, call, lose.

Is this the Persian guy who wears sunglasses and won't play short handed? Or a different guy?

Which expert is in the game? I play in this game some and hadn't ran across any tough champions yet.

Anybody like not betting this river against this specific villian?

This is not the persian guy in sunglasses. Not going to name villain but he has probably read this thread. I think my hand is far too strong not to bet but I'm open to hearing reasons why that's not the case.

Only people who hate money

I think betting in this spot is usually the right decision. However, it is worth asking what he is going to call with that you beat at this point and whether it is worth opening yourself up to the raise.

Roger. I understand. Thanks.

You should bet this hand every day. The real question is do you have a plan when faced with a river check/raise.

I started to reply to this earlier but didn't like what I said after I wrote it. I'll take a stab. And actually, I kind like money A LOT!

I'm not a range guy but I'm trying. You raised from UTG and he's an expert playing in the BB. It's folded to the blinds and they protect. What hands does he put you on? I've never played against you, but I've read many of your posts years ago. I'd have to think you've got A-Big down to JTs minimum. And I'm leaning towards A-big. When he continues to play after that flop and the SB drops, what hands do you put him on? In other words: why is he continuing to play? And if he is continuing to play, why didn't he c/r the flop and bet the turn? He has to realize you could easily have AK. If he has Kx or Ax, he could easily be beat when he hits 2-pair not to mention he's not getting proper odds to draw to 2-pair on the turn. On the flop, the SB has folded, why would he peel one off when if he hits 2-pair, he might be beat? So, "I think" he's either got a flush draw or he thinks he's got a ton of fold equity for when the flush hits on the river.

For that reason I check the river. You're a value guy - you checking the river behind will cause him to say "WTF?" It will mean his turn call was barely +ev. It will cause him to wonder what the heck you're doing and possibly play against you less than optimal in the future.

I also think he could have a set of 5's played very deceptively - thinking / hoping you've got a big Ace and not a flush draw. No, actually I think that's a dumb thought on my part now, but I'll leave it. If he had a set of 5's, he'd c/r the turn and lead the river. I don't know - I think part of being a good player is knowing how to hedge (knowing how to play reverse implied odds correctly).

OK - let me have it. I'm here to get educated (schooled)

Smitty is not an idiot spew-meister out of position preflop. His opening range is fairly snug here, let's say 88+, ATs+, AJo+. Smitty c-bet's almost 100% on the flop when only 3-way against the blinds.

Even A2o has greater than 50% equity on that flop, if he c-bets his entire opening range.

http://www.pokerstrategy.com
Board: AcKh5c
Equity Win Tie
MP2 46.94% 44.04% 2.90% { 88+, ATs+, AJo+ }
MP3 53.06% 50.17% 2.90% { A2o }

Add in the occasionally KQs, KQo, KJs, and it only gets better.

http://www.pokerstrategy.com
Board: AcKh5c
Equity Win Tie
MP2 42.38% 40.08% 2.30% { 88+, ATs+, KJs+, AJo+, KQo }
MP3 57.62% 55.31% 2.30% { A2o }

I think I'm an idiot. But I don't understand. That's what I mean. The villain knows this. Doesn't the fact the villain continues to play knowing Hero's range narrow villains range?

What do you put villain on when he calls the turn? Isn't it WAY weighted towards a flush draw? OR possibly 55?

If villain has 55. Hero could easily have AK. Villain can just c/c until river hedging and when an Ace or King doesn't hit the river, villain c/r's. If villain has 55 he's only worried about AA and KK which aren't likely. And I don't think villain needs to worry about Hero having a flush draw. Even though it is possible with AQs, KQs, QJs, and JTs. We don't know if the flop was AcKc5o or AcKo5c or AoKc5c.

From past experiences with you all, I think my thinking must be off. Thanks for helping me ...

At what point so you think villian folds k-10 here?
If he has 55 then he should just quit poker.

Against a BAD player who has no bluffs in his or her range, you can make an exploitative bet-fold here.

But against a good player you have to call, because a good player can bluff this river, right?

May be this is why I'm such a weak player? If I'm villain and UTG raises and only the SB calls. I fold KTo. I'm only calling with pocket pairs, suited connectors and AJs+. True, you're getting 5:1 on a call and may be you can expect to win better than 1 in 6. But those 5 times that you lose, you're going to lose more than the 1 small bet you put in to see the flop.

Why should villain not play 55 exactly the way the hand played out? Especially if he's expecting Hero to bet every street?

Or are you saying he should 3! 55 pf?

I guess I don't see a good player being there unless he's got the flush or thinks you'll fold to a raise. Remember, it would be a c/r bluff for for 7 big bets. He's putting in 2 to win 7 on a bluff. It has to work better than 22% of the time. Against a player who likely pays off, I don't run the bluff.

I don't mean to be a naysayer in all this ... I'm just trying to think. And I guess be devils advocate.

if we were villian and had 55, where would we c/r? I can see the flop or turn c/r being reasonable but the board smacks utg range really hard

You guys realize there is a 5 on the flop right?
Dicey, you just play way to tight preflop. I'm not suggesting you defend as loose as I do (can only imagine what you'd think if you saw my hands) but folding A-10s here of is just absurdly tight.

Thanks for clarifying. I thought a set would raise way before the river. Flop is my default

Part of it is that a good player is an observant player. If you are always folding the river to a raise on this sort of board, the good player will start making an exploitative adjustment (or, alternatively, play closer to GTO with a balanced river raising range) and we are going to start folding winning hands.

Part of the reason you pay off sometimes when you know you are beat is simply to prevent opponents from pushing you around.

How in the world would AQ be the top of your non 3 betting range on the river here? You're going to 3 bet AK? Even 3 betting a set seems bad here, I think his range is polarized to mostly flushes with a few bluffs.

I would bet this river with AQ, but it's near the bottom of my betting range. Barring some unusual particular read on this player, I think it's a bet/fold.

Oops I somehow missed there was flush possibility first time I read it.

I still think it is easy call down with AQ but I would not 3 bet A9s if I happened to have that. I think AK is still pretty close between call and 3 bet as I expect him to play A9, K9, and 95 suited this way and probably cry call a river 3 bet. I also expect he is going to put in some aggression with a lot of his flush draws earlier in the hand.

If Villain is an expert. I'm no expert - I'm not even descent. But if villain is an expert, why would he get aggressive? It's heads up. Getting aggressive with a draw seems foolhardy to me. You're just value-owning yourself. The only way I get aggressive heads up with a draw is if I think I have a lot of fold equity. In this case UTG opened and the flop was AK5. I don't see a lot of fold equity here against a player I have experience with and I know is a good player.

If villain has a FD, then check calling all the way is +ev all the way. The only decision is on the river when you make your hand. You have to decide whether or not you can get a c/r in.

If villain has 55, check calling hedges against an A or K coming on the turn or river. If I have 55 on that board, I'm never folding. It's heads up with the pfr who was/is UTG. I'm hedging against UTG having specifically AK. I'm not worried about the FD - if that happens, oh well - bummer for me. Same goes for AA or KK - bummer for me. But AK is betting all the way on this board and there's 9 ways to have it vs. 6 ways to have AA or KK (combined). There are plenty of hands UTG could have that are betting all the way on this board - AQ (12 ways), AJ (12 ways), AT (12 ways but now betting all the way is player dependent). There's no reason to raise before the river when UTG could easily have a draw against my monster little set. If I raise the flop it cost me money because UTG may only call down. If UTG re-raises and I re-re-raise, I've announced my hand and UTG is drawing against me if he holds AK. If I win, I win the same amount as how the hand actually played out. If I raise on the turn, UTG is going to call down - but he has a draw against me if he holds AK. I'll wait until the river to c/r. If an A or K comes on turn or river, I'll only call down. If not, I'll c/r. This way I make the same money or more (flop c/r and UTG only calls down) and I save money when I'm drawn out on (UTG makes a better full house).

Dicey, I think we should double barrel close to our entire range on turn if we are utg. Villain can have way too many weak peels to let him see river. A hand like 88 should bet for value against 5x or a broadway gunshot that peels flop. JTs needs to barrel turn to fold out the weak peeling part of bb range. Because utg should have high double barrel frequency, expert should have some bluffs in his turn check raising range. Small flush draws with no showdown value are perfect candidate.

If he's got 55 he should c/r the flop some % of the time and c/r the turn some % of the time. My default would be c/r flop and lead turn hoping to get raised and have an opportunity to 3! hero.