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November - I just changed a tire in the rain after losing 2 chairs (LC/NC) November - I just changed a tire in the rain after losing 2 chairs (LC/NC)

11-02-2014 , 08:49 PM
Tried to get tickets but at 3x face and better it wasn't worth it. So tailgated with the boys and now we're at a bar just outside Gillette. I think the term "pubstomping" is not too strong.
11-03-2014 , 01:53 AM
With a jackpot of ~$320 M and a cash value of ~$280 M, the next Mega Millions drawing will be one of the rare ones that are EV+ (higher ones tend not to be because of the high probability of sharing).
11-03-2014 , 01:58 AM
Quote:
Originally Posted by Jon_locke
Lol, was reading last hand hoping it was that hand, wife was in game and told me about it.
There's so much beauty in the world.
11-03-2014 , 01:59 AM
Quote:
Originally Posted by callipygian
With a jackpot of ~$320 M and a cash value of ~$280 M, the next Mega Millions drawing will be one of the rare ones that are EV+ (higher ones tend not to be because of the high probability of sharing).
It's go time
11-03-2014 , 01:59 AM
Quote:
Originally Posted by jesse8888
It's go time
Also **** u harbaugh. Stillers.
11-03-2014 , 02:32 AM
Quote:
Originally Posted by callipygian
With a jackpot of ~$320 M and a cash value of ~$280 M, the next Mega Millions drawing will be one of the rare ones that are EV+ (higher ones tend not to be because of the high probability of sharing).
Isn't it impossible to know this without knowing how many tickets will be sold?
I find it hard to believe that any lottery will be +EV.
11-03-2014 , 02:56 AM
Quote:
Originally Posted by chillrob
Isn't it impossible to know this without knowing how many tickets will be sold?
Yes. But they tell you exactly how many tickets they think will be sold.
11-03-2014 , 04:49 AM
Quote:
Originally Posted by callipygian
With a jackpot of ~$320 M and a cash value of ~$280 M, the next Mega Millions drawing will be one of the rare ones that are EV+ (higher ones tend not to be because of the high probability of sharing).
Cash value is $194.1 million so I get 92 cents EV per $1 ticket. I'm still buying some.

I'm not sure if powerball or mega millions has ever been +EV. If you assume you will be the sole jackpot winner, they certainly have. Previous results from jackpots of that size have shown that to be unlikely.

Then there's the tax debate. Sure, you can deduct all your losing tickets, but in reality, you don't buy enough tickets to put a dent in it.
11-03-2014 , 04:54 AM
Does this mean we need to figure in taxes on our winnings now when calculating pot odds?
11-03-2014 , 05:08 AM
It could have an EV of $2 for a $1 ticket and still be a bad bet for almost everyone, even if you ignore the taxation issue, because of the diminishing returns of huge amounts of money.
For example, I would not be twice as happy or get twice the utility from $200 million that I would from $100 million; in fact I would likely never even spend the $100 million, so doubling it would grant me no extra utility at all. So if it would not be a +EV bet at a return of the lower amount, it would also not be worth going for the higher amount.
11-03-2014 , 10:07 AM
Once you get it, you'll find a way to spend it. How else would all these formerly poor lottery winners go back to being broke so quickly when they've never spent 1/10th (or likely even a smaller %) of their jackpots cumulative in their lifetimes.
11-03-2014 , 11:08 AM
Pro move would be to take the $170M or so left over after tax, chuck $160M into something w/ a nice ROI, and have a nice life with the other $10M.
11-03-2014 , 11:18 AM
Quote:
Originally Posted by that_pope
Once you get it, you'll find a way to spend it. How else would all these formerly poor lottery winners go back to being broke so quickly when they've never spent 1/10th (or likely even a smaller %) of their jackpots cumulative in their lifetimes.
That's why rich people should be the only winners.
11-03-2014 , 12:58 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by chillrob
It could have an EV of $2 for a $1 ticket and still be a bad bet for almost everyone
Buy a ticket and if you win give it all to MSF or something if winning money bothers you so much.
11-03-2014 , 01:03 PM
The whole utility of money argument seems to ignore the low utility of $1. I mean, let's say you have that $1 and use it on the $0.99 1L of coke at Walgreens. Buying a soft drink that large will lead to diabetes and long term health problems. Thus, even though winning $200 million isn't worth its full EV due to lack of value in too much money, it is better than getting fat from drinking coke. Since having $200 million is better than having diabetes, we should clearly buy the lotto ticket. QED
11-03-2014 , 01:05 PM
Not many economists in this thread. Personally the $1 ticket cost is worth the most for me, and after $1 million or so (whatever it takes to buy a nice medium sized house where I would want to live, and related expenses), the utility of additional dollars would rapidly decrease.
11-03-2014 , 01:10 PM
There's a reason they call economics "the dismal science."
11-03-2014 , 02:49 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by chillrob
the utility of additional dollars would rapidly decrease.
True, mostly economists are keenly focused on the diminishing utility of additional $ beyond 1 million. That's why most CEO's only want $1.5 million per year (a little extra to hedge). They were talking about that exact thing on the freakonomics podcast last week, iirc.
11-03-2014 , 03:43 PM
Loose aggressive guy opens EP, horrible UFO calls, some other random calls and another reg calls. I three bet KT because gamble and semi-erratic reg who plays more cautiously against me (FWIW in a brewing massive pot) caps it. Maniac donator calls from the blinds and everyone calls.

Flop J98 and EP leads. UFO and reg 2 call. I decide to just call. Erratic guy raises and EP 3 bets. UFO calls, reg 2 gets the message and folds, I take two and Erratic guy calls.

Turn brick b/c/c/c

River Q (dingdingdingdingding) and EP bets. UFO calls and I raise. Erratic guy takes two to the face. EP folds and UFO calls.

Poker's fun sometimes.
11-03-2014 , 04:28 PM
The odds are so slim, you will never reach the 'long-term' and basically never realise your EV.

Someone needs to invent 'groupbuy' for lottery tickets. Convince a 1,000,000 people to join your groupbuy. Groupbuy takes a small cut, everyone else actually profits from the EV of the lottery. Win win.
11-03-2014 , 04:57 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by DougL
economists are keenly focused on the diminishing utility of additional $ beyond 1 million.
$1 million per year or $1 million TOTAL?

Because I can buy that many people will face a utility drop after $1 million per year.

I think chillrob wants $1 million TOTAL. Which I guess is great in the sense that he's an easy man to please.
11-03-2014 , 05:55 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by phunkphish
Groupbuy takes a small cut, everyone else actually profits from the EV of the lottery. Win win.
Everyone knows the lotto is 50/50.
11-03-2014 , 06:41 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by jdr0317
Loose aggressive guy opens EP, horrible UFO calls, some other random calls and another reg calls. I three bet KT because gamble and semi-erratic reg who plays more cautiously against me (FWIW in a brewing massive pot) caps it. Maniac donator calls from the blinds and everyone calls.

Flop J98 and EP leads. UFO and reg 2 call. I decide to just call. Erratic guy raises and EP 3 bets. UFO calls, reg 2 gets the message and folds, I take two and Erratic guy calls.

Turn brick b/c/c/c

River Q (dingdingdingdingding) and EP bets. UFO calls and I raise. Erratic guy takes two to the face. EP folds and UFO calls.

Poker's fun sometimes.

Condolences on the 9 spades on the river.
11-03-2014 , 06:55 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by callipygian
I think chillrob wants $1 million TOTAL. Which I guess is great in the sense that he's an easy man to please.
That's me! (After taxes and lump sum, of course)
11-03-2014 , 07:38 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by chillrob
That's me! (After taxes and lump sum, of course)
You're literally OK grinding 15/30 for the rest of your life and then buying a modest house? No dreams of opening a penguin-themed restaurant? Having a pet walrus in the basement of your mansion? Sex tour of Antarctica? Buying a literal ton of coke and pretending it's snow?

One of the great reasons to play the lottery is to imagine what you'd do with more money than you'd need, and then ask yourself why not do those things even without winning the lottery.

      
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