15 oaks

Tag Utg opens, loose MP cold calls. Sb and Bb are both loose. I'm on the button and have TJ. I cold call 2 (am I suppose to fold? Also, what would be my 3betting range and cold-calling range here?) Sb folds, Bb calls.

4 players ($126 pot)
Flop comes T72 rainbow.
Utg leads, MP calls, I raise, BB folds, Utg calls, mp calls.

3 players ($216 pot)
Turn comes 8.
Utg checks, mp checks, I bet, Utg raises, mp folds, I ????

What is my plan from here on and what is utg's probable range here? I think Utg views me as taggish.

Is it ok to reraise the turn (for FE) and give up/check the river on non 9, T, J cards or is there a better way to play? I don't think I'm ever getting 4 barreled on the turn.

calling with this hand on the button vs. a reasonable utg open and a loose cc'er thinking that the blinds are likely to come along seems fine to me.

raising the flop is good.

once utg k/r the turn, i would just call and call blank rivers. raise any river that improves our hand. 3betting the turn seems a bit spewy. when he's got an overpair or a better kicker, we lose the maximum. when he's got a bluff, we give him the chance to fold. we won't have any fold equity vs. anything we're losing to. he'll only be folding hands that we're already ahead of, which we would rather barrel off.

there are some river cards that i may consider folding. A, K, Q. all other cards i'm calling expecting to lose.

You have outs. Call the turn. Three betting accomplishes nothing. If you improve to a straight then raise the river. If you don't improve then mostly call the river but sometimes fold.

He probably has AA-JJ, 99 or 88 and I think 99 or 88 are his most likely hands. Maybe he has big overcards with a flush draw (if the turn brought a flush draw) and views you as a bit weak.

PF: I like the overcall against a TAG UTG raiser. You want the loose blinds to come along and build a pot for you.

FLOP: Not what you wanted to flop but you're 4 ways in a 5 BB pot with absolutely position. I like the raise to blow out BB.

TURN: The 8 now gives you a gutter to go with TPJK. I like the bet. Gotta protect and test UTG. You don't want to give two players a free river. Once raised, figure UTG has an overpair/AT/set. With a set being his least likely holding. You've got up to 9 outs getting 10:1. Easy call. I don't think you have any fold equity in a 10 bb pot. NFW. Raising would be lighting money on fire. Whereas calling allows you to stick in a raise on the river if you hit.

RIVER: I think you have to fold inimproved. Yes, the pot is big. But UTG x/r into two opponents OTT. Not without something that beats you.

I agree with bump's actions but not all his reasoning. Raise flop for value, bet turn for value - neither is for protection.

Cally -- I think the flop raise is both value and protection. IMO, I want to blow the BB out of the hand. I don't want to push this hand further against 3 villains. I'm value raising the two other villains who have already put a bet in. Mostly against the LP. I'm hoping to split the pot (about equal equity) with the TAG.

I coldcall here 100% preflop. I'd sooner 3bet than fold, but calling 2 is clearly superior.

I disagree with bump that this is "not the flop we're looking for" - top pair is a strong hand in LHE and definitely worth raising for value.

Turn is a call; folding and 3betting are both really bad. Whether I fold the river depends (a) on the specific river card and (b) who the UTG player, neither of which I think I can really answer given the OP. I probably pay off as a default but there are definitely TAGs in the Oaks 15 whom I fold the river against.

PF is fine, although folding is better than 3-betting. I play the flop the exact same way. Turn is a call and only a call IMO. I bet/raise river T or 9, bet/call a J.

Don't 3bet the turn.

Raise any 9,10,j.

Rodeo's logic is perfect.

1) I usually fold this, but if there is a spot to cold call, it's suited connectors with loose blinds and a cold caller in front. You've a good multiway hand and good position. And I doubt anyone is reading your play.


2) I like this raise. You have a strong hand on the flop, but vulnerable. BB has a lot of Ax, Kx, even Qx in his defend range, so you can protect your hand that plays better with less opponents. This flop also likely sniffed our UTG opener.

3) I agree with bump86 here. A 9 gives you the nuts, a T or J give you a strong hand. Also, if you have any hand history with UTG, think about what he has shown up with here. Usually b/c flop, k/r turn is a strong line that wants customers. So what's his range here?

ATs? Most certainly
ATo? Maybe
77? Maybe
88? Maybe, though he might bet/fold this (I don't think so, though, since you could be raising it up with a draw here)
TT? Yes.
AA-JJ? yes.
Air? Like KQ? Meh, maybe if he's a spew box, but I doubt it.

You have 4 outs v the sets (9), 7 v TPTK (9,J), and 10 v an overpair (9,T,J)

So let's pretend he can have any of these hands:
12 TPTK combos
9 set combos
24 overpair combos

(12(7) + 9(4) + 24(10))/(12+9+24) = (84+36+240)/(45) = 8 outs, equivalent. So, you have a super easy bet/call. You can highly discount any bluffs, since UTG raised into two players, and probably fold river UI.

What's more interesting is if river improves us. I think all of them are a raise/call, but I'd consider r/f'ing a T if villain never three bets without AT, 77 or 88. But according to my app, we have enough equity (67.8%) that we can raise and still make money by calling.

Sorry if this is meandering. Attempted iPad post.

PF I fold. I want more than 3-1 or 4-1 when I'm likely dominated. Since the game is filled with LAPpy players, we can find better spots than TJs facing a TAG UTG raise.

The whole concept of "find better spots" seems pointless to me. Who cares? We're in this spot. Do we play or don't we? If we're rational, we base that decision on the information we have -- we decide if it is profitable. We have this hand, not some other hand. We have loose blinds behind. Let's give the UTG raiser the goods, the MP cold caller a wide range missing some raising hands, and go with the OP's assumption of loose blinds.

*******Equity*****Win*****Tie
UTG****34.49%**33.82%***0.68%*{ TT+, AJs+, KQs, AQo+ }
MP2****15.40%**14.43%***0.97%*{ 88-44, AJs-A2s, K2s+, Q4s+, J6s+, T7s+, 97s+, 87s, AQo-A2o, K6o+, Q8o+, J8o+, T8o+ }
BU*****21.59%**20.80%***0.79%*{ JTs }
SB*****14.28%**13.56%***0.72%*{ random }
BB*****14.23%**13.52%***0.72%*{ random }

To modify the hot/cold sim, we have the button and a hand that plays well multiway. Our call should encourage the blinds. Thus, this spot seems profitable. The situation gets better for us when the UTG range isn't so tight and we remember that our SB is sitting on a $10 blind (2/3 blind structure at Oaks, I'm assuming).

You're considering a horrible line. It is really hard to turn a hand this high up in your range into a bluff. You're thinking about pulling off a FSDR. I don't think you have any fold equity. You also probably can't fold to a 4 bet, which sucks. You can't really get value from a raise, as people tend to be strong for turn raises. Without a really good read that your opponent is bad in particular ways, raising would be awful.

Against a TAG UTG raiser, I'm looking for the FD/OESD on the flop. I'm not running away from TP here. And I'm playing it agressively. But I'm also expecting a turn raise. And I'm pretty damn sure it means I'm drawing.

Folding this PF OTB with two loose blinds behind us is just horrible. JTs is not dominated. It's precisely the sorta hand that can crack AA. And you've got equity, with enough loose callers, to try.

"Find better spots" only matters when resources are limited. If you can't find an opportunity cost to playing this hand, "find better spots" is pointless. If you can, it means you're under-rolled.

TJs is easily dominated. Depending on how tight the raiser is, ATs, AJ, TT+ all dominate us. The only hands in his range that don't dominate is 88, 99, KQs, AQ, AK.

I don't think being OTB and being 4 or 5 handed is enough to overcome the fact that our hand is behind. Sometimes really behind. Our overall position is goond, but our relative position is also bad, being first to act after the PFR.

I'm not that excited to play this hand 4 or 5way to a TAG UTG raise. So, yeah, I find better spots, as I don't think it's profitable.

Doesn't domination require a card in common? How does QQ dominate JT?

You're wrongly dismissing the effect of the cold-caller and the blinds. As well as postflop playability. JTs will be able to continue on a lot of flops where, say, a weak offsuit ace would not. It can flop flush draws and a ton of straight draws.

We don't act first after the pf raiser. There is a cold-caller in between.

I think you mean to say you don't think is a good spot. "Find better spots" implies you think this one good, but the opportunity cost dictates you wait for a better one. Thinking this one is bad is another matter.

Is this thinking about profitability based on some thing math-based (say a hot/cold sim), or just a feeling? You enumerated a number of hands, but you kind of ignored how likely they are. You could aggregate his range like I did in Equilab. There are other ways to do it. However, just stating over again that "it isn't good enough" doesn't encourage a discussion. We're all here to get better. Can you support your opinion?

I feel strongly that the pf profitability of this hand is directly correlated to the ability to figure out when you should/should not fold one pair.

And if he ever wants a chance of being a decent winner and/or making it to the 30 game, he'd better figure this out. If he plays badly enough post flop that he loses with this hand, is he even a winning player? He screws it up such that he overcomes your positional advantage while aware of the active villain's narrow range. This is the crush-able nigh mid-stakes game in the region, right? Great place how to learn how to play in tough spots (if it is even a tough spot), rather than against 30/60 or 40/80 players. I get the argument, but basically anyone but a short rolled shot taker should play this. Even then, if he reduces your EV your downswings tend to be horrible. If the read in the OP is correct, this is a profitable spot. If he plays badly post flop, BR considerations become strange b/c he probably doesn't win.

You both crush this game and giggle/call PF, right?

DougL , yes and yes. Your thought process is spot on here. Im even calling stuff like 78s, 910s, and probably any pocket pair depending on exactly how loose both blinds are.

I just want to be clear that I'm not saying anyone who folds this loses. I'm saying that anyone who plays badly enough post flop that he must fold it probably doesn't win.

Yes, I call this preflop. I also generally call 87s and any pp if we're likely to go off 5-ways.

But the point I wanted to bring up (and that I never read anyone post) is that our average hand at the river is probably like one pair (as opposed to a straight or flush), so we're going to frequently be in the spot hero is in on the river.

As opposed to something like 87s or 33, which is pretty hard to screw up postflop.

Anyway, the reason I frequently hold up the "danger, there be monsters in these waters" sign, is because enough good players in this forum give the proper preflop play (and the reasons why), but pretty much nobody explains any of the concerns and caveats that you need to keep in mind. IMO.

bdaddy sighting! Where've you been?

My opinion is that our hand is definitely behind the UTG range, and since we have two high cards, we can easily be dominated. Calling 2 cold to be in a dominated situations seems bad. As many regular posters are stating that this hand is profitable, I'm definitely amiable to changing my opinion. I think it's a close spot, but one that I try to avoid. Maybe I shouldn't.

If UTG opens, and we're in middle position with TJs with 4 loose players behind, is this still a call? We have worse position, higher chance to get 3!, but can reasonably still expect the hand to be 4 or 5 way. It's similar to the original spot.

I think cc pre is the best play for this hand, but wonder whether i should have it in my 3! Range anyway. It'd be a nice compliment to the rest of my 3! Range and wouldn't hurt my cc range much by leaving it out. Thoughts?

Phunk, you're hypo is a much worse spot because of the risk of being oop on top of getting raised behind. That said, there are some games id still play it.

I want guaranteed 5 way action to make this play. 3 and 4 way action are the worst possibilities.