If you check? His whole range that didn't whiff the flop

Let's go back a little. I agree that Captain R has a strong range when he bets the flop. QQ+, AK, maybe AsQo?, AsXs, KQ, maybe KsJs?, maybe 33??. When we cap-donk check-raise, our perceived range is polarized but strong - KK-QQ, maybe AA?, maybe AsXs?, maybe JTs?. If either Hero or Villain has a spade in hand, they can narrow the other's range even more. We have 6-8 outs most of the time and one pair is no good.

Captain R calling the turn decapitates his range somewhat, and that's actually good for us.

So the river comes and basically Captain R has a bunch of strong hands he's not sure are good, but we lose a bet either way (he's not folding and he's betting if checked to): AA, AK, maybe even KQ. He's going to check behind with SDV hands that he can't call a raise with - AsTs, maybe AsQ - because we have to have exactly JTs for those to get value. However, when we continue betting, we may still have KK or QQ, and we can't be barreling off AsXs because As is in hand, so there's a chance these fold. Then there's some cheese Captain R neither bets nor calls like As9s-As8s, and it doesn't matter if we bet or check/call.

Captain R probably has zero bluffing range here, so we can't check/call. We can check/fold. But IMO the best play is to go for the parlay - bet, hope Captain R has the As in hand and thinks we have zero bluffs, and folds AsQ or AsTs, then hope that the whale also spiked a T with JTo or T9o and won't be able to fold for one bet. I didn't work out the combos, but I think bluffing is going to be better than check/folding. I could be convinced otherwise, but there's no way that check/calling is anywhere close.

we disagree because we are making different assumptions about ranges and what each player would do with them

it would be terrible to check the flop with a set so I hope that's not in drew's range

on the river, in captain's spot, I wouldn't fold any of the hands you're hoping he folds. drew's hand just makes too little sense to me

I think river is close between c/c and c/f

I'm not sure why you think captain would never bluff A9ss/A8ss. how else is he going to win the pot?

I agree (which is why I think we should have bet the flop if we capped preflop).

But given that we check/raised JT, it forces us to check/raise something else.

Cally, now that you've posted this I don't think the Captain is ever going to fold to you ever again.

1. Never folding is silly.

2. Almost never folding was correct before I posted.

It's interesting in that I generally pay off the people who I don't understand what they're thinking/doing.

Depends on everyone's range.

why is the word "friend" in quotations? is it because you two aren't actually friends?

friends with benefits maybe?

Sent from my GT-I9100 using 2+2 Forums

UTG still has an 80% range.

My check range should be quite weak. Let's say I should have checked JJ-TT, AJs/ATs, JTs, and I'm betting TP+, leaving flush draws and Qx in a gray zone where you can discount them in my checking range if you want.

The mediocre players probably paired up a fair bit playing too many offsuit broadways but also have a lot of whiffed suited connectors that they called preflop sensing a big pot brewing. I gave them most of the broadway combos, all suited connectors, a handful of suited one-gappers and some of the bigger suited 9's and all small pocket pairs.

If you agree with these ranges I'm getting for you that JJ is a very clear check, Qx+ is a very clear bet, and AsJx should take the freebie. So you're probably supposed to be checking back a pretty healthy portion of the time.

It was originally going to be a joke, like where you are asking for your "friend" that has a drinking/sex/gambling problem but it's actually you.

But then I'm actually in the hand, so that didn't work. And I just didn't change the title back.

Also, I feel I should humbly add that the Captain is really an awesome friend away from the poker tables.

So your c/r range is 100% draws? That's not good.

After you c/r, basically everything he bet should be 3b then.

Thanks, so I think what you're really saying is that I'm a pretty big ***hole at the poker table.

"Friend" indeed.

I'm arguing I should c/r nothing.

We have reached the conclusion of the hand --

Whale checks, hero checks, Captain R says, "really..." and then studies the board for a bit and bets.

Whale folds, hero?

your responses are obviously going to be biased towards people saying call cause no one who would fold would dare admit it to you.

so yeah easy call.

[SPOILER] no really, super easy call. i call you 100% here, guaranteed.[/SPOILER]

needs more love.

I was going to when he tgen said how good a friend he was off the table, but quoting was too much work in my phone

Fold river

Maybe I'm oversimplifying, but can't we just calculate the estimated likelihood that we need Captain R to fold to our river bet based on our risked bet/pot size and then see if our ranges/combos fit that?

Taking a stab at it, we'd need the parlay of Captain R folding and the Whale folding/calling with worse to happen more often than ~5-10% to make it a profitable river bet given the pot size. And my rough personal guess on the fairly narrow ranges (based on the action) would make that unlikely.

Yeah, there are like 3 combos of JTs that I beat, and I'm getting 17:1?

AA:6
KK:3
QQ:3
AK:12

There's just no way I'm folding anything to a river bet that beats JT.

Ask him if he wants to chop it, then when he says no raise one more time.

Are you really going to expect him to bet JTs on this river, even if he would play it that way on the first 3 streets? He didn't, in fact, bet it, and I don't think many players would.

If he thinks his hand is not best, it seems he should bluff with it occasionally, but not every time, to make the odds you're getting about the same as the chance he's bluffing. And if he's only bluffing it rarely and that is all you can beat, you should be folding the river.

Actually JTs was the most likely hand I expected him to have up to the river, because I wouldn't have expected him to play any of the other hands this way, so...

If he's bluffing at the right ratio, then I still have to call with most of my hands.

Salad