8/16 Live: 55 in the sb with JJJ flop
06-06-2009
, 06:32 PM
The game is the Commerce 8/16 Half Kill. The kill is NOT on.
Villain is in the Low Jack. Villain is a young-ish, fairly TAG regular whom Hero respects. He doesn't seem to get out of line too often, and plays like he's read some literature. Hero has seen him raise pocket pairs 88 and up.
Hero's image to Villain is probably TAG based on past encounters, but tonight Hero has been caught 3 betting light to isolate against a donkey spewing chips (and has shown down after sucking out on a couple other players involved), so his image tonight may be more on the LAG side.
Hero has 5
5
in the SB.
UTG calls, UTG+1 calls, UTG+2 calls, UTG+3 folds, Villain calls, Hi Jack calls, CO folds, BTN calls, Hero completes, BB checks. (3.5 big bets)
Flop comes JJ
J
Hero bets, BB folds, UTG+1 folds, UTG+2 folds, Villain raises, Hi Jack folds, BTN folds, Hero 3!, Villain calls.
Turn is 9
Hero...?
Is the flop 3! spew? This is kind of a crazy situation; obviously Hero is drawing completely dead to any combination of hands that holds the J, and there are all sorts of other hands Hero is drawing dead to (higher pocket pairs). However, I think Villain would raise if he had 88 from late-middle position, and would obviously raise any higher pocket pairs. This means the only pocket pairs Villain could have that beat Hero are 66 and 77. Hero can also see the raise with A high, as that hand is going to be good the majority of time.
My plan was to keep firing the turn and river unless an A showed up, and probably fold to a raise. On the flop, I think my hand is certainly the best, and I should try to get as much money in there as possible. It's been suggested I call the flop and CR the turn, but this to me seems overly dangerous: if my hand is good, I want to get as much value as possible, and if I CR the turn, he might just fold up shop. Alternatively, he might not even bet the turn, which would kind of suck. If I CR and he 3!, I'm done. If he raises at any time, I'm probably done. Thus, if he raises my turn bet, I save half a big bet over CRing and getting 3!.
Thoughts?
Villain is in the Low Jack. Villain is a young-ish, fairly TAG regular whom Hero respects. He doesn't seem to get out of line too often, and plays like he's read some literature. Hero has seen him raise pocket pairs 88 and up.
Hero's image to Villain is probably TAG based on past encounters, but tonight Hero has been caught 3 betting light to isolate against a donkey spewing chips (and has shown down after sucking out on a couple other players involved), so his image tonight may be more on the LAG side.
Hero has 5
5 in the SB.UTG calls, UTG+1 calls, UTG+2 calls, UTG+3 folds, Villain calls, Hi Jack calls, CO folds, BTN calls, Hero completes, BB checks. (3.5 big bets)
Flop comes J
JJHero bets, BB folds, UTG+1 folds, UTG+2 folds, Villain raises, Hi Jack folds, BTN folds, Hero 3!, Villain calls.
Turn is 9
Hero...?
Is the flop 3! spew? This is kind of a crazy situation; obviously Hero is drawing completely dead to any combination of hands that holds the J
, and there are all sorts of other hands Hero is drawing dead to (higher pocket pairs). However, I think Villain would raise if he had 88 from late-middle position, and would obviously raise any higher pocket pairs. This means the only pocket pairs Villain could have that beat Hero are 66 and 77. Hero can also see the raise with A high, as that hand is going to be good the majority of time.My plan was to keep firing the turn and river unless an A showed up, and probably fold to a raise. On the flop, I think my hand is certainly the best, and I should try to get as much money in there as possible. It's been suggested I call the flop and CR the turn, but this to me seems overly dangerous: if my hand is good, I want to get as much value as possible, and if I CR the turn, he might just fold up shop. Alternatively, he might not even bet the turn, which would kind of suck. If I CR and he 3!, I'm done. If he raises at any time, I'm probably done. Thus, if he raises my turn bet, I save half a big bet over CRing and getting 3!.
Thoughts?
06-06-2009
, 07:09 PM
So you say villain would raise 88+ preflop, does this include the case after a bunch of limpers? A lot of players will open with 88 or isolate, but not in a 3-5 way pot.
I doubt villain has two big broadway cards, he probably would have raised two overs to a J preflop, and it's hard to imagine he is raising something like QTo/KTo here. That would be fairly strange, especially when you donk into a big field. I don't think he's raising A9 or something like that... I mean, like... wtf.
So he probably has a J or a pp. Honestly, I wouldn't mind a b/c, c/c, c/f line or c/c river if you really think he could be value-betting like 33/22 or something. But in my experience, most players are not doing that once they get to showdown.
Most players are usually slowplaying a J too, so I think his range is heavily weighted towards pp's 22-88. You're right in the middle of that, so you probably have a profitable calldown.
Edit: Oh yeah, and if you spike a J on the river, this might be a good place to donk-bluff if you've been check-calling.
I doubt villain has two big broadway cards, he probably would have raised two overs to a J preflop, and it's hard to imagine he is raising something like QTo/KTo here. That would be fairly strange, especially when you donk into a big field. I don't think he's raising A9 or something like that... I mean, like... wtf.
So he probably has a J or a pp. Honestly, I wouldn't mind a b/c, c/c, c/f line or c/c river if you really think he could be value-betting like 33/22 or something. But in my experience, most players are not doing that once they get to showdown.
Most players are usually slowplaying a J too, so I think his range is heavily weighted towards pp's 22-88. You're right in the middle of that, so you probably have a profitable calldown.
Edit: Oh yeah, and if you spike a J on the river, this might be a good place to donk-bluff if you've been check-calling.
06-08-2009
, 04:45 PM
