Live 8/16 - 9 Handed

Reads:

Villain: I have been seated for about (4) hours with Villain. He is a borderline player, with a LAG'ish game. He will typically bet when checked to if he has any part of the board or overcards. He strikes me as the type of player that could be a winner, but cold calls too often preflop.

Currently he is riding a heater that has netted him approximately 30BB in the last hour'ish so he is riding high.

Hero: Before I go into my image, I have no idea how much villain is really paying attention to anything other than his own cards at the moment, due to his heater. That being said...

My image is TAG. I am running well (up approx. 35BB in the 4 hours that I have been seated). What few bluffs I have run have been successful and the hands that I have shown down have been solid winners . So I have not been caught pulling any shenanigans. I have also snapped off a couple of really bad bluff attempts.

The Hand

Preflop:

Hero is dealt AQ

Folds to Hero and he raises in MP, Fold to Villain on BTN who 3 Bets, folds to BB who calls, Hero calls

Flop (9 SB): AKJ

BB checks, Hero checks, Villain bets, BB folds, Hero calls

Flop Notes: BB was horrible and his range was weighted toward suited cards, small pocket pairs, etc. I considered a flop donk to allow BTN to cause BB to call 2 cold, but thought that the real action in the hand was with villain. Had BB stayed, I would have probably raised for value at that point as he would definitely not fold after putting money into the pot (even if BTN 3 Bet).

Turn (5.5 BB): 6

Hero checks, Villain bets, Hero calls or raises?

Turn Notes: So at this point I am torn between calling and raising. Given my read on villain, I am not folding. I am all about TAG’ing it up but I really don’t see what a raise accomplishes here as it doesn’t protect my hand, possibly folds out hands that are crushed and want to bet because betting has been working lately, and if I get 3-Bet (or even if he calls) I think his range really narrows and I would now have to fold (to a 3 Bet) or have a really ugly spot on the river if I do not improve.

I was leaning towards a call as for the same 2 bets that I would spend on the turn raise I can call the turn and call the river and keep his range wide. Does this make sense or am I out-thinking myself here?

Thoughts on all streets, and my thought process are appreciated!

First of all, you want HIS range to be narrow, and YOURS to be wide, so that you know what he has but he has no idea what you have.

Are you really going to fold to a 3-bet if you raise? If so, what hands do you believe he's going to call with?

This is probably a WA/WB situation, depending on how many aces he 3b vs. how many PP he 3b pre.

Agreed, so call down.

Incidentally, c/r a river ten if you're pretty sure he'll continue to bet with the 4 straight on board, otherwise donk it.

This sounds about right.

Any notes on his 3bet? I want to cap preflop. As played I call down.

Super standard spot to let the barreller barrel IMO.

WA/WB requires that we donk any street we don't think he'll barrel with his whole range. That is, if he's going to check back the river with TT-, we have to donk it.

Also, we have to make sure we have about 30-60% equity, or else we're just WA or WB instead of WA/WB.

So I did a forum search for WA/WB before I posted and sounded like a n00b, and I think that we are saying the same thing. When I stated that his range would be narrow I meant that by betting I force him to get away from hands that are giving value and continue with hands that are ahead.

I will stove it later, but I think that his Preflop 3B range is 99+, AQo+, AJs+, KQs, and maybe KQo but I think that is a stretch.

As far as what hands he just calls with if I raise the turn that is actually a great question, because to be honest I think there is very little that he calls with. Maybe AQ, AJ.

i think your thought process in this hand is good.

nh so far.

If WA/WB means you must be as likely to be one as the either, than this is the definition of a WA/WB. We're at like 52%.

I think its interesting to consider what having the 3rd player in would do to our decision making process.

Your instincts OTF if 3rd player calls seem good to me, but it will depend on how often this villain will be able to 3bet with 2pr on this scary board. If he's ahead half the time, willing to keep calling when behind, but only willing to 3! the part of his range that has you crushed (sets) then you will make more 3betting when the 3rd player is in. (I am assuming terribad never foldsand gave him range you described)

When Villain just calls you'll have two extra bets going in and your equity will be 50%.

When he 3bets you'll have to put in two bets with only about 20% equity.

So 80% of the time you gain 50% of 2bets and 20% of the time you lose 80% of 2 bets. Good C/R.

The scary nature of this board might protect you and make C/Ring more attractive when the 3rd player calls because it should make your V less likely to punish you with all his 2pr hands as well as his sets.

However if he's on a heater and will 3! everything that has us beat, or if he plays well enough to fold everything in his range that we beat, then raising the flop becomes less attractive.

As played, HU, NH.

Yeah this is definitely WA/WB and I just C/C down. Given the board texture if you donk a brick river he'll almost definitely fold TT, QQ or something like KQ.

Am I a terrible player for thinking we should donk on the flop here? Two reasons in favor of it: (1) For info. I want to know how BTN is going to react -- if he raises, I'm a lot more likely to be WB than WA, and I can probably get away from my hand before hitting the expensive streets; and (2) we want to be damn sure we don't let either BTN or BB get a free draw to an inside straight, a set, or whatever. If BTN had been three-betting with a pocket pair that missed the flop, that's exactly what might happen.

As played I CR the flop. Its a WAWB spot but so what, I get more dead money and I also see how strong his hand it. I am not capping and am check calling the turn. We might actually get a free turn card with a CR flop.

Super standard check/call down imo. I know we often want to donk the river when playing WA/WB but I really would want to puke if he raised us and I'd have a hard time folding so I just c/c the whole way.

Here is the stove that I ran, as stated earlier it is damn near 50/50:

Board: Ad Ks Jh 6d
Dead:

equity win tie pots won pots tied
Hand 0: 54.453% 45.76% 08.69% 745 141.50 { AsQh }
Hand 1: 45.547% 36.86% 08.69% 600 141.50 { 99+, AJs+, KQs, AQo+ }


In general, I am not a huge fan of betting or raising "for info". I think that by betting for info we open ourselves up to deception. I think that if other factors in the hand dictate that a bet or raise may be best then we should use the info that we gain from that beneficial action. But I think betting for the sole/primary purpose of gaining info is not optimal.

Specific to this hand, part of the reason that I posted this one was that I kind of locked up when it played out. I really wanted to donk the flop - I mean I really wanted to donk the flop. But, as I thought about BTN's range and tendencies I decided against it. Being somewhat aggro *and* on a heater I think that villain is likely to raise a flop donk with a wider range of hands than just those that crush us. This is especially true with BB in the pot still.

So donking out with the intention of folding to a flop raise or going c/f on the turn if we are raised on the flop makes us much more susceptible to bluffs, which is probably not optimal with a villain in an aggro state of mind.