If it's alright, I'd like to get opinions on a hand I played last night. I'll give reads on the other players and then stop at each of my decision points.

I'm very interested in your thoughts as me and a friend were in disagreement on several of my choices

Past history:

Two weeks ago, I raised 5 limpers out of the big blind with AhQh. Villain called and raised my bet on a A62 flop. Everyone else folded, so I flat called, check-raised the turn and bet the river. He paid me off the entire way with A8o and MHIG.

That same night, he raised UTG with what turned out to be KK and I called after 4 others in the BB with 7h6h. The flop was 976 (can't remember suits, but i think there was a flush draw). I bet, expecting him to raise with a big pair, which he did. Two people called 2 cold and the 2 others folded. I 3-bet and all three opponents called. Turn was a blank, I bet and got two calls and one fold. River was a 6, missing the flush draw. I bet and villain now raised. Given that I had him on the big pair the entire way, I 3-bet and he paid me off.

I've seen him raise several other times and it has always been AA, KK, AK & QQ. I know this because he is incapable of folding big pairs regardless of how evident it is that he is beat, and he loves to show that his big pairs have gotten cracked, so we basically get to see his hand every time he raises. He may have AQs type hands in his raising range, but I'm pretty confident his raising range is {AA, KK, QQ, AK}. I do not know what his capping range is, although I'm sure it is heavily weighted toward { AA, KK }

So, that is the main villain in this hand. The 3 players directly to his left (UTG+1, UTG+2, MP1) are playing about 90% of their hands if they can limp and only 70% of their hands if they have to call a raise. This may be an overestimation, but I'm confident in saying they are playing well over 50% if they have to call 2 cold. The other player directly to my right will probably have a hand range of all pairs, all suited aces, some suited connectors.

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Live $4/$8 Limit Holdem (4 bets is a cap)
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Hero is dealt T T OTB

Villain 2-bets UTG, UTG+1 calls, UTG+2 calls, MP1 calls, CO calls, Hero ?

Not sure what the question or the problem is, but this is an lol easy raise.

Every hand you have mentioned so far had no tough decisions involved and were 100% standard (except the flop donk when you flopped two pair).

the other hands were simply for past history with villain. the question is whether to 3-bet or call and for what reasons

question is whether it's right to 3b a utg raise that is [AKo, AKs, QQ+}

Against UTG's range, you're a significant dog with TT. You know that.

But the question you're asking has to with raising from the button, right? You have tons of leverage against the other callers as described (something like 70%-90% vpip), and a raise makes a lot of sense. Every dollar you put in is money earned against those players.

Your 3! may also slow him down postflop, which can only help you when you don't spike your T.

Question is whether it's right to 3! that UTG raise when we are (1) OTB, and (2) with four (!) super-loose cold-callers in between.

If the given ranges (the nit, and 70% to the callers) are correct ...

equity win tie pots won pots tied
Hand 0: 33.030% 32.58% 00.45% 2998728 41512.67 { QQ+, AKs, AKo }
Hand 1: 20.052% 19.76% 00.29% 1818883 26750.00 { TT }
Hand 2: 11.742% 11.09% 00.66% 1020441 60323.42 { 22+, A2s+, K2s+, Q2s+, J2s+, T2s+, 93s+, 84s+, 74s+, 63s+, 53s+, 43s, A2o+, K2o+, Q3o+, J5o+, T6o+, 96o+, 86o+, 76o }
Hand 3: 11.735% 11.08% 00.66% 1019792 60369.92 { 22+, A2s+, K2s+, Q2s+, J2s+, T2s+, 93s+, 84s+, 74s+, 63s+, 53s+, 43s, A2o+, K2o+, Q3o+, J5o+, T6o+, 96o+, 86o+, 76o }
Hand 4: 11.711% 11.06% 00.65% 1017767 60206.92 { 22+, A2s+, K2s+, Q2s+, J2s+, T2s+, 93s+, 84s+, 74s+, 63s+, 53s+, 43s, A2o+, K2o+, Q3o+, J5o+, T6o+, 96o+, 86o+, 76o }
Hand 5: 11.730% 11.08% 00.65% 1019627 60069.25 { 22+, A2s+, K2s+, Q2s+, J2s+, T2s+, 93s+, 84s+, 74s+, 63s+, 53s+, 43s, A2o+, K2o+, Q3o+, J5o+, T6o+, 96o+, 86o+, 76o }

Right. This is what we're looking for, not our equity against ultra-tight UTG alone.

*G*

I'd be OK cc'ing to (mostly) set mine in this spot. Even calling two cold you're getting >5:1 immediate. Some may argue to 3bet as you'll still have nearly same pot odds (and at least same implieds), position, blah blah blah. I think that option is fine, too. As a personal preference, though, I usually don't 3bet when I *know* I'm well behind and likely drawing thin.

Set mostly plays itself, but also if comes a dry low/middle-card flop, depending on the action, you can consider a flop raise to determine if he has UI AK (AQs?) or an overpair.

Edit: fwiw, I think all prior hands are pretty standard. I'm even OK with the flop donk in the 2pair hand, given villain raises much of his range and stations behind will often be happy to call two cold.

how often do you guys think we'll be able to profitably realize our equity by getting to showdown? and how does that consideration impact our line, if at all?

maybe OP can chime in if he thinks all of the players in between us and villain are calling with hands like K2o and Q3o and J5o

my guess is that the three loose players are playing unsuited nonsense, but that the other 2 callers will show up with far more reasonable cold calling ranges, 54s+, 22+, etc

Not terribly often (I can't guess at a %), which is why I think stoves are of limited value in this spot and why I lean toward cc'ing.

if you haven't figured it out already, this discussion came about between me and camz2895 this morning.

Please poke holes in my thought process.

This decision is very close (why else would there be disagreement?), and I decided to 3! for a couple of different reasons:

1. While I would rather 3! only the 47% of the time we're flipping with UTG, my best guess at the moment was that, due to the presence of the 4 weak cold calling hands between us, 3! when he has QQ+ couldn't be that terrible since I'm going to get at least 5:1 on however many bets go in preflop.

2. I'm not a huge fan of hot/cold %'s either, but I did guess at the time that I would be able to make it to showdown in some fashion a little less than 20% of the time (12.5% flopped sets, boards where TT is an overpair, straight draws, etc). Clearly I won't win every time I go to showdown, but I will win a showdown a very high % of the time since I'll have a set the majority of the time.

3. Probably the most important reason I 3! was UTG isn't going to be able to extract nearly as much out of me when he has me crushed as I will when I have him crushed. I'm going to be able to play very close to perfectly against his hand while he loves to payoff even though he knows he's beaten.

I'm not saying I'm going to be looking to fold one pair in a giant pot, but I'm going to get a big piece of what I feel will be reliable information through how he reacts to the 3!. I thought this would allow me to play well on later streets, so I chose to put in the extra action at what might be neutral EV to be able to save or gain bets later.

If I'm not on the button or if there were fewer callers between us, I most certainly would have called and played accordingly.

It turns out the flop is also somewhat interesting as I flop a set, but I'm curious as to how many bets you guys would want to go in on the turn and river depending on his actions

I'm on the button with T T.

Villain 2-bets UTG, UTG+1 calls, UTG+2 calls, MP1 calls, CO calls, Hero 3-bets, SB folds, BB calls, Villain caps, UTG+1 calls, UTG+2 calls, MP1 calls, MP2 calls, CO calls, Hero calls, BB calls.

Flop (28 sb): K T 6
6 checks, Hero bets, BB calls, Villain 2-bets, UTG+1 calls, UTG+2 calls, MP1 calls, CO folds, Hero 3-bets, BB calls, Villain caps, UTG+1 calls, UTG+2 calls, MP1 calls

Turn (26 bb): 3

What's our plan?

What's the question? Fold? Call? Raise?

Folding is stupid.

Calling is weak.

Raising gets you the most amount of money when you scoop the pot.

I vote for a raise.

The question is not whether we're going to showdown because clearly we are.

The question is how many bets do you want to go into the pot OTT/OTR and what's the plan to achieve that depending on how Villain checks/bets/raises/etc?