Live 20 - Six Way JJ - Page 2 - Small Stakes Poker Forum

You see my point? All this "we might be bluffed" isn't really the issue. The issue is about how much value there is in a bet and how correct the villain's c/r bluff frequencies are. If they never or always c/r bluff, we don't care. I totally agree that there are situations where checking is just totally correct based on a certain set of assumptions. However, saying "we might be raised so checking is correct, QED" isn't true.

Honestly, I thought that was the prospectus of 20/40 live LHE -- you don't get c/r as a bluff there.

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04-02-2015 , 07:45 PM

#27

lawdude

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Join Date: May 2009 Posts: 10,305

Quote:

Originally Posted by TheDarkKnight

If we are leaning towards bet-calling--which seems correct to me--then I would lean towards checking river. We are rarely winning when we bet-call and we are losing a decent portion of the time when we bet and get called on the river, so the EV of betting seems to be approaching a negative expectation.

And that's why I *generally* don't bet here, though with the correct read I might.

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04-05-2015 , 05:26 PM

#28

synth_floyd

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Join Date: Sep 2005 Posts: 7,074

I would have to lean towards checking on the river. What worse hands will call and what better hands will fold? If someone hit a flush they will x/r, 2 pair will call. Maybe a weak Kx will fold if you think that is in the other players' ranges. A9, AT type hands may call. Verses 3 other players it's not too likely. Still, the pot is 15.5 BBs and you're only putting in 1 more bet. Tough decision.

Last edited by synth_floyd; 04-05-2015 at 05:33 PM.

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04-07-2015 , 09:47 PM

#29

ZOMG_RIGGED!

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Join Date: Aug 2007 Posts: 17,504

You guys are over estimating how often you get c/r bluffed on this river and under estimating how often you'll get called by worse

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04-07-2015 , 10:15 PM

#30

KitCloudkicker

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Join Date: Jun 2007 Posts: 8,405

generally it isnt a good idea to "value" bet rivers expecting to lose

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04-07-2015 , 10:15 PM

#31

KitCloudkicker

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Join Date: Jun 2007 Posts: 8,405

its live and you 3 bet pf, loose passive types easily have Kx hands here even without a flop raise.

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04-08-2015 , 10:38 AM

#32

mongidig

Pooh-Bah

Join Date: Jan 2004 Posts: 5,682

Quote:

Originally Posted by ZOMG_RIGGED!

You guys are over estimating how often you get c/r bluffed on this river and under estimating how often you'll get called by worse

I totally agree with this. I also think you get called by more than one worse hand sometimes.

Look at the players left on the river, look at the size of the pot. Bet and let them rationalize a call with whatever they made it to the river with.

If these are the type of players who will passively call down a King; they probably aren't the type to decide to bluff raise a player who 3 bet pre and bet all the way into multiple players on a perceptually scary board. I certainly don't think your getting bluffed raised often enough to make that the reason not to bet for value.

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04-09-2015 , 05:46 AM

#33

Judice555

adept

Join Date: Jan 2013 Posts: 740

Quote:

Originally Posted by TheDarkKnight

This feels right to me - I doubt I could bet and then fold if someone raises and I'm closing the action, given the the odds you're getting; although I suspect I would also be hating my life at this point....