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Old 06-28-2009, 11:02 AM   #1
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J10 in the BB with a Raise and 1 caller. Call not profitable in long run?

Curious about Situations like these when youíre in the BB.

You have J10 Suited.

Someone in MP Raises and the SB, or Cut OFF calls.

This can be in a full ring or six max.

Should you call 1 more bet here and see the flop? Iím on the fence in this situation. Its one more bet yes, but if my hand hits with a J but nothing else I might be committed to call down, or at least stay in until the turn. I feel that if I call here Iím paying off one more bet and maybe two more depending on the flop. I will not know where I stand in this situation, and could be out kicked. I rather call with 78S here than call with J10. Wit two people in the flop face cards like J's are likely to be played. I just feel J10 will lose in the long run.

Last edited by Snowcrash; 06-28-2009 at 11:16 AM.
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Old 06-28-2009, 11:54 AM   #2
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Re: J10 in the BB with a Raise and 1 caller. Call not profitable in long run?

I'm definately looking to call and evaluate the flop. 6handed I'm in in a heartbeat. Obvioulsly table image and reads on CO and SB are going to be key to your post-flop action. I am inbetween on this hand more often than not. If you're up against a TAG, he could be sitting on JJ just as easily as he's on AK.

I think making a call here isn't the worst idea, but your play on the flop is what is going to make/break your hand. Reads, Reads, Reads...
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Old 06-28-2009, 04:42 PM   #3
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Re: J10 in the BB with a Raise and 1 caller. Call not profitable in long run?

As always it depends on our villains.

But if the CO calls a MP raise, I am assuming he doesnt have a premium hand, so J10 is not likely to be dominated by AA-10,10.

If the SB calls, again I assume he doesnt have a premium hand and against an unknown would assign a range of 22-JJ, AX, K10+.

I dont have stove to hand, but this question is porbbaly easily solved by plugging some numbers.

By feel, against unknowns I probably make the call, but any kind of read on a player and I can see laying it down without second thought.
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Old 06-29-2009, 02:26 AM   #4
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Re: J10 in the BB with a Raise and 1 caller. Call not profitable in long run?

JTs in the BB?
Unless you play terribly postflop I can't imagine how tossing JTs for one extra bet isn't lighting money on fire.

Edit: quick stove, I don't know how accurate it is for these players. I'm assuming some looseness in the coldcaller but not total fishy-ness.
MP I just gave a 25% range. This is somewhat of a LAG range.

equity win tie pots won pots tied
Hand 0: 37.198% 35.43% 01.77% 1637958 81653.33 { 66+, A2s+, K6s+, Q8s+, J8s+, T8s+, A7o+, K9o+, QTo+, JTo }
Hand 1: 32.288% 30.97% 01.32% 1431810 60850.83 { JJ-22, A2s+, K8s+, Q8s+, J8s+, T8s+, 97s+, 86s+, 75s+, 64s+, 54s, A8o+, KTo+, QTo+, T9o, 98o, 87o }
Hand 2: 30.514% 29.25% 01.26% 1352285 58333.83 { JTs }

We're getting 5:1 (CO calls) or 5.5:1 (SB calls) to make the call, and we will win almost one out of 3.
If you play well postflop then you're getting better odds to make the call. If you play poorly flop then of course you're getting worse odds.

Last edited by SetofJacks; 06-29-2009 at 02:40 AM.
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Old 06-29-2009, 03:43 PM   #5
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Re: J10 in the BB with a Raise and 1 caller. Call not profitable in long run?

I hate this call heads up but with a 2 bet limper or 2 I think that it is ok. You stand a chance to win a big hand if you hit it hard but will lose only a little if you miss or hit it a little. I have assumed that you can fold tp/fk to heat and can muck on a flop like AQX or 97X.
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Old 06-29-2009, 03:51 PM   #6
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Re: J10 in the BB with a Raise and 1 caller. Call not profitable in long run?

3 way this is a call. 5 way you could argue a raise.
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Old 06-30-2009, 01:10 AM   #7
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Re: J10 in the BB with a Raise and 1 caller. Call not profitable in long run?

Easy call...no doubt...the SB should be raising...so he's not a good player...unless he got brave with A Xs any PP he should raise. your getting 5-1 on the call...i know u could be outkicked but...u have to. As for Jesse's suggestion of a raise if there are 5 players...is ludicrous...i can't wait to see him in the BB. (sorry mate) his argument im guessing is its a drawing hand...but the 1st raiser could cap it...also why not 56s then, that hand has even more logic for a raise since presumably the 5 others have high cards
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Old 06-30-2009, 01:21 AM   #8
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Re: J10 in the BB with a Raise and 1 caller. Call not profitable in long run?

JTs is a snap call in this situation. Suited connectors in the bb with 4 cold callers has been discussed, but I don't think I would three bet it myself (though I'd very often raise with decent suited connectors in the BB with 5 already in).
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Old 06-30-2009, 03:13 AM   #9
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Re: J10 in the BB with a Raise and 1 caller. Call not profitable in long run?

Quote:
Originally Posted by Sect7G View Post
Easy call...no doubt...the SB should be raising...so he's not a good player...unless he got brave with A Xs any PP he should raise. your getting 5-1 on the call...i know u could be outkicked but...u have to. As for Jesse's suggestion of a raise if there are 5 players...is ludicrous...i can't wait to see him in the BB. (sorry mate) his argument im guessing is its a drawing hand...but the 1st raiser could cap it...also why not 56s then, that hand has even more logic for a raise since presumably the 5 others have high cards
equity win tie pots won pots tied
Hand 0: 28.454% 27.56% 00.90% 837037 27261.63 { 77+, A9s+, KTs+, QTs+, AJo+, KQo }
Hand 1: 17.064% 16.00% 01.06% 485963 32339.38 { JJ-22, A2s+, K2s+, Q8s+, J7s+, T7s+, 96s+, 85s+, 75s+, 65s, 54s, A2o+, KTo+, Q9o+, J9o+, T8o+, 98o, 87o, 76o, 65o, 54o }
Hand 2: 17.084% 16.02% 01.06% 486746 32179.88 { JJ-22, A2s+, K2s+, Q8s+, J7s+, T7s+, 96s+, 85s+, 75s+, 65s, 54s, A2o+, KTo+, Q9o+, J9o+, T8o+, 98o, 87o, 76o, 65o, 54o }
Hand 3: 16.143% 15.25% 00.89% 463225 27119.63 { JJ-22, A2s+, K2s+, Q2s+, J2s+, T2s+, 92s+, 82s+, 72s+, 62s+, 52s+, 42s+, 32s, A2o+, K7o+, Q8o+, J8o+, T7o+, 97o+, 86o+, 75o+, 65o, 54o }
Hand 4: 21.255% 20.34% 00.92% 617728 27881.47 { JTs }


Applied pretty standard (imo) ranges for loose passive coldcalling ranges.
Hand 3 is the SB. A lot of live players will call from SB with ATC and I've removed some of the crappier hands from that range.
I also assumed that the players would 3! QQ+ but nothing else.

equity win tie pots won pots tied
Hand 0: 29.507% 28.64% 00.86% 681476 20536.98 { 77+, A9s+, KTs+, QTs+, AJo+, KQo }
Hand 1: 17.561% 16.43% 01.13% 390845 26968.82 { JJ-22, A2s+, K2s+, Q8s+, J7s+, T7s+, 96s+, 85s+, 75s+, 65s, 54s, A2o+, KTo+, Q9o+, J9o+, T8o+, 98o, 87o, 76o, 65o, 54o }
Hand 2: 17.556% 16.43% 01.13% 390787 26887.82 { JJ-22, A2s+, K2s+, Q8s+, J7s+, T7s+, 96s+, 85s+, 75s+, 65s, 54s, A2o+, KTo+, Q9o+, J9o+, T8o+, 98o, 87o, 76o, 65o, 54o }
Hand 3: 16.384% 15.41% 00.97% 366611 23196.15 { JJ-22, A2s+, K2s+, Q2s+, J2s+, T2s+, 92s+, 82s+, 72s+, 62s+, 52s+, 42s+, 32s, A2o+, K7o+, Q8o+, J8o+, T7o+, 97o+, 86o+, 75o+, 65o, 54o }
Hand 4: 18.992% 18.17% 00.82% 432230 19627.23 { 65s }
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Old 06-30-2009, 07:25 PM   #10
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Re: J10 in the BB with a Raise and 1 caller. Call not profitable in long run?

I'm sure it took a long time to come up with those formulas and even longer to type out those numbers....but for laymen like myself...are u saying that a 3 bet is a good idea?
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Old 06-30-2009, 08:23 PM   #11
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Re: J10 in the BB with a Raise and 1 caller. Call not profitable in long run?

Quote:
Originally Posted by Sect7G View Post
I'm sure it took a long time to come up with those formulas and even longer to type out those numbers....but for laymen like myself...are u saying that a 3 bet is a good idea?
Those are Poker Stove results.
You type in a range for each player and it will run a simulation for you, and print the results.

I used a 10% range for the raiser and some custom ranges for the coldcallers and SB, and compared it to each of JTs and 65s.

JTs has 21% equity, while 65s only has 19% equity.
If these ranges are accurate, 3-betting JTs from the BB will net you .05 small bets compared to calling, while 3-betting 65s from the BB will net you -.05 small bets compared to calling.


Of course the equity here is so slim that there isn't much immediate difference between raising and calling.
However, when it is a nearly breakeven decision, you should usually raise for the following reasons:
* It's fun
* It makes you look like a lunatic in the eyes of others and generates more action against you ("metagame purposes")
* It ties players to a giant pot. JTs will often flop a strong draw, where you will be able to pump the pot. Other players will be obligated to stick around with very weak draws. In the 3-bet pot, you could bet with a flush draw and get called by all four players. In the 2-bet pot, you might only get 2 callers.

So yes, with 5+ players, 3-betting JTs out of the blinds is not a bad idea at all.
3-betting 65s isn't a bad idea either tbh.
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Old 06-30-2009, 08:29 PM   #12
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Re: J10 in the BB with a Raise and 1 caller. Call not profitable in long run?

I would call this any JTs any time from the BB, even against a single raiser (unless perhaps if he's very tight and raises from EP/MP). You're getting 3:1 which is plenty. The more colcallers the better, but I wouldn't raise until there are perhaps 5 players in the hands; even if the odds are right you're still OOP.

I would even call with JTo with 3+ players in the hand, though i'm sure this is more debatable.
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Old 06-30-2009, 08:53 PM   #13
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Re: J10 in the BB with a Raise and 1 caller. Call not profitable in long run?

It's an abomination to fold JTs for one bet from the bb irrespective of the action in front of you.
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Old 06-30-2009, 09:03 PM   #14
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Re: J10 in the BB with a Raise and 1 caller. Call not profitable in long run?

Quote:
Originally Posted by Mrs Leo Doc View Post
It's an abomination to fold JTs for one bet from the bb irrespective of the action in front of you.
Did you get a ban?
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Old 06-30-2009, 09:16 PM   #15
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Re: J10 in the BB with a Raise and 1 caller. Call not profitable in long run?

Quote:
Originally Posted by Mrs Leo Doc View Post
It's an abomination to fold JTs for one bet from the bb irrespective of the action in front of you.
It'd be very close against a huge NIT.

But in general folding JTs for 1 bet getting 5:1 in the BB is going to be quite terrible... we should also be defending quite wider than just JTs here or you'll be leaking a lot of money in the blinds if you're thinking about folding this hand.

I mean if 3 nits in early position went raise/raise/raise I'd really have a hard time releasing a hand as sexy as JTs... I'd want to take 4 to the face like a champ, although 54s would be tons better than JTs in that scenario, maybe even +EV.. but I ramble.
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