Originally Posted by callipygian
No flop cbet for me. As played, call river.
For those that advocate a raise, what's the raise for? Value or bluffing? Do we expect anyone to fold a pair? Do we expwct anyone to call AQ-?
It's investing an extra 1 BB into 10 to potentially fold out a better hand. How often are we good here against the CO, and how often will someone behind fold a pair?
I think we're good in the 20-30% range against the CO, and we get 2 folds behind us a huge amount of the time. So say 30% of the time we win if we call and it were HU, but an additional 33.3% of the time an overcaller calls and takes the pot from us. So we're investing 1 BB to clean up about 33.3% of a 3BB stake in the pot, which is break even.
So call and raise seem close with my numbers, which are very rough estimates, on a loose estimation of the pot size. Seems like a spot where you'd be pretty indifferent between the 2, unless my estimate about how often we're ahead of CO is way low or something.