4/8 game. Tight old man open raises UTG. This is the first time I've seen him raise in almost 2 hours. I put his UTG raising range as QQ+ and AK. I've seen him limp with TT, JJ and AQ before, so I feel this range is accurate.

Folded around to button, who calls. Small blind calls. He is very loose post-flop and likes to semi-bluff his draws. I have KJ of spades in BB, and call. 4 to flop, 8 small bets.

Flop 8-4-2 with one spade. SB checks, I check, old man bets. Button folds, SB calls. I make an iffy (?) call with backdoor flush draw, very sketchy overs, and closing the action getting 11-1.

3 to turn, 5.5 big bets.

Turn is 9 of hearts. SB donks. I raise. Is this spew? My thinking was the SB has some straight draws in his range, and raising the turn with my KJ high could make the old man fold AK or maybe even an overpair. If the SB doesn't have a draw he might fold 2nd pair, or I could still hit on the river. Good thinking or spew?

Yuck.

These guys never fold an overpair in thie spot. They're almost always calling. Raising no draw overs in front of a donk w/ a guy who has QQ+ (I doubt he has AK, these weak passives often will limp even that) yet to act is a good way to ensure maximum money is lost in this hand.

Even if the nit is capable of raising AK, I doubt he c-bets it. I think you're smoked and should fold.

You can't be serious, can you? I don't like mucking pre, but turn is horrendous. What the hell got there on the turn? 2p? set? slowplaying monster 2p/set?

jdr, what if the 9 is a spade instead of a heart?

Confirmed crazy.

You are investing 3BB (in a 6BB pot) in the hopes that PF raiser has no pair (when more than 50% of the time he has a pair!), and you need him to fold, plus hoping the SB is donking air into 2 players.

It's easy to calculate your ev with such a narrow range. Do it as a function of the probability P of SB "donking air" and you can confirm the level of spew.

Without running the numbers, I'd estimate your "effective outs" around 2 or 3. Putting in 2-3bets can't be good.

PS. I'm running on fumes after an all night marathon session, so I may be slightly off on the estimate but probably not by much.

Getting 6.5 to 1, but not closing the action, it becomes player dependent. If QQ+ will slow down once facing a bet, easy call. If a raising war is imminent, I'd still possibly find a fold.

If SB is draw-happy here and not likely to 3!, I'd still call.

Guys this nitty almost never have AK. Almost guaranteed overpair on a pretty dry board.

You can add AK to his QQ+ range and we are STILL in pretty bad shape when the donker has 2pairs (when not air, if they ever donk air).

even if he does play AK this way, we are in trouble.

6 combos AA/QQ, 1 combo KK, 8 combos AK if the K comes.
We beat QQ, lose to the rest (6/21, 28.6% chance of being ahead of his range, not including the other player)

6 combos AA/QQ, 3 combos KK, 12 combos AK if the J comes.
We beat AK (which is probably not calling here) and lose to everything else.

No matter what happens, we are at best c/c'ing the river.

Yup. Basically, we are hoping
1) old man has AK, after a PFR and a c-bet (not likely) and will fold
2) goofy has JT and will b/c turn, c/f river.

Not likely.

Thanks guys. Yeah, guess I lost my mind there.

You don't really believe this, do you?

kalahari-

Your play here is analogous to pouring your last canteen of water on the lone cactus in the middle of the Kalahari.

Is the pope Catholic?

Of course this is spew. This is 4/8. The mistakes your opponents are making is they call to much with weak hands/draws. They are not making the mistake of folding too much.

If the tight old man (TOM) has an over pair, he is calling you down. If the SB is on a straight draw, like JT, he is not folding the turn. You will have to bet the river on air to get him to fold. If the SB has a pair, he will probably call you down.

Maybe the TOM has AK and will fold for 2 bets on the turn and the SB donked the turn with air and will fold too. That miracle just doesn't happen often enough at 4/8. You just put 2 BB into a 6.5 BB pot. The miracle doesn't happen close to 30% of the time at 4/8 to make that a break even bet.

Spew confirmed.

Also, I'd fold the flop. ToM almost always has a big pair here, and a BDFD is worth maybe 1 out. Best case you catch a King on the turn and he has QQ, but most of the time when you catch a pair he has you crushed and you pay off. At 11-1 you need 4 clean outs to peel, and I don't think you have them.