4/8 game at local card room, remarkably loose-aggressive action for such low stakes. *Seeing very few flops for less than 2 bets and many hands capped preflop.

Hero UTG +2 with JJ
Folds to Hero who raises
Cutoff calls
Button 3!
Big blind caps
Hero calls, cutoff calls, button calls.
Flop 3c-Ks-6c
Big blind checks
Hero bets
Cutoff calls
Button raises
Big blind 3!
Hero folds

Button and big blind are very LAGish. *Big blind boarders on maniac and could totally see him check-raise with a 3 or 6 and definitely with a club draw. *Cutoff is classic loose-passive and would absolutely play K-rag like this. *Button could have lots of things, seen him bet straight draws like this (and getting there) all night. *If only button and big blind in the hand I’m probably calling down but cutoff’s range is a lot tighter and much more likely to have a K. *Still, can’t help but wonder if this fold was too tight.

Although it's probably easier to write, it's hard(er) to read the action stacked up like a txt hand history. Make your topics easy to read and you'll get the best response.

The only question I have is whether CO can only have Kx. If so, then you have an easy answer. If not, then you have a good start to all their ranges. Plug them into propokertools.com and see what your equity is. Post a link to the sim and we can tweak it.

At some point, you have enough opponents that the conditional probability of nobody having a better pair starts to get pretty small.

Added to the fact that if nobody does have you beat, they've probably got a bunch of outs to beat you ott/otr.

Plus you don't close the betting and run the real risk of being whipsawed by two maniacs.

You'll most likely have to put in at least 3 more big bets to get to showdown. Do you feel like you'll win the pot 25% of the time?

I like the fold.

i'm not sure i like the flop bet

Yeah what on earth are you hoping to accomplish there (and don't say betting for information)?

-hf

it's not like there is no chance his hand is good on the flop, so he needs to bet. even though he's probably less than even money to have the best hand, the pot is more than large enough to make this a bet.

if the button and big blind had just called hero's bet, we'd be really happy that we bet.

this just isn't one of those times

Ummmm....no.

BRILLIANT!

Centja, I actually do understand what you're saying. It's the kind of thing that sounds right after re-reading SSHE.

Just not sure what the bet is supposed to accomplish. Everyone is going to find something they like on this flop (flush draw, overcards, higher pp), and even maniacs are dealt AKo. If you're trying to push people out, why not wait for the turn?

Even if you're ahead, this bet doesn't protect your hand because:
-you should be trying to c-r the likely bettor behind you
-everyone is calling one bet on the flop, and likely calling another sb when button raises

And I don't know that your equity is strong enough to go to value town on the flop.

As played, I like the fold.

+1. You still have a re-raiser behind you.

I'm betting here, for value, every time and expecting to be wrong a lot, but right often enough to compensate me for the risk.

Against this crowd, there's a fair chance you have the best hand on this flop. However it's still just 2nd pair 4way. I'd want to play it somewhat conservatively, which is already going to be difficult to do with two bad-lag/maniacs in the hand. You said yourself they can b/raise with FD's, 3x, weak draws, etc. So it's already very unlikely for it to be cheap to see the next couple of cards, even without you leading the flop. And it sounds as though your leading the flop never gets them to fold either.

So I'd probably check and see (of particular interest is what the CO does, since his actions "make more sense", so to speak). As played, you're facing two cold not closing the action and the CO hasn't gone away, so I do think you have to fold.

fwiw, the flop bet is far from the worst flop bet I've ever seen.

Thanks, T. The way I've been running lately I'll take any encouragement I can get!

I guess the flop bet was at least a little close. Given the company, I felt like if there were just calls behind it would be a good sign. Also, I think it was 16:1 on my bet and with implied odds it's getting close to try for the set (I think I did have the Jc). I'm glad I was on track with my original question. Thanks for your help, guys and I will try to get a little cleaner with my notation.

you are betting into a raiser and a capper. are you hoping they have exactly 99 and 1010 and aq? they are likely betting some of these hands anyway.

You're not reading the villain descriptions closely enough. Ranges for villains likely to be MUCH wider than just 99+, AQ+.
I still frown a little on the flop bet, but not for reason you've stated.