how can you fold turn if he can have A7 ?

over 20 -1 odds ( 3 "K" to win ans 2 "2" to tie ?)

You fold turn because in your opinion we have 0 outs ? correct ?

Just because there is one hand in his range that you could profitably draw against doesn't mean you can call against his whole range. Most of his range may have you drawing dead.

agree, but when having over 20-1 odds and so few hands that beats us, you should put some weight on the hands that you can beat if you are on some weak draw .
Especially if you expect yourself to continue with only 1 hand in all your range.
This is the reason i would fold something like AT-J, probably AQ but never AK here.

And when we speak about "most of his range", i mean it is so short that A7 being there or not, should have a good impact in our decision to call or fold .

After he calls your raise on the flop his hand is always better then AK, easy fold turn imo.

This is FALSE. This is limit Holdem we are playing here.

Keep in mind the old man called the flop raise of a spewy player. Even nitty, foldy players aren't dropping Ax in this spot without more evidence that they're beat.

By the turn, yes, he has AK beat.

This is the core of the argument, and may be strongly influenced by where/who you are playing. This summer, waiting for a NL seat I was sitting in a small spread limit game. A guy who after 45 minutes my "expert higher stakes player" read would have been this sort of nit, ran a 3 street bluff on a snug 50-something lady in the game. I kind of laughed inside as to a) how wrong my read was and b) how it seemed that he needed to push around the only female person in the game. Given longer in the game, it could be I'd have known my initial nit read was wrong or didn't apply in this exact spot due to male/female dynamics.

If the entire hand revolves around how well you know what you know, it is hard for a 3rd party not in the game to say. Maybe "I don't know" becomes the new "it depends"? The error bands on your reads have to overcome immense pot odds on later streets. An expert in the game can tell you if you're right or wrong... if only you know that the person was an expert instead of a fish on a heater.

I hear you.

To clarify: I was quoting a very specific flop comment from JMath,. He said that villian calling a raise on the flop means he always has AK beat. This means that villian will always fold any pair of aces on the flop and never sees a turn in a raised flop unless he has 2pair+, well, you do the math.

I admit, it's remotely possible that this guy exists, who wins one out of every 20 sessions, repeatedly seeing how his mucked hand was the winner, keeps coming to play and never stops folding his aces, but I doubt it.

All these stories of hands means nothing. Poker is a conversation

Old man calls raise pf. Could be lots of stuff.

Flop A72. Bet raise. Old man calls. His worse hand is now A3

On the turn it goes bet call and old man raises.

This isn't a bluffing spot. No old man is bluffing here.

You told him pf and on the flop you love your hand and he still raises TWO people on the turn

It's a value raise. You tie a few hands and are losing the rest.

He might even have 78 here.

Point is it doesn't matter how big the pot is when you know you are losing and don't have the odds.

This guy just always has it.

And the times he doesn't will be 1/1000 types when its insignificant.

Why not say instead:
Calling with more than 20-1 odds with your top 3% range vs a nit will not influenced negatively your win rate.
But i rather be wrong, call and loose on the river than Being wrong by foldind the best hand (or tie) , it should imo become significantl loss after couple of time.

So be wrong and bad call is insgnificant to your bankroll or take a chance and and if wrong, ouch for the wrong fold !
Pray it really happens only 1 in 1000 .

Btw, you wont make so much more money by folding the turn rightly for saving 1 bet .

Actually you will. You save 2BB

Your win rate is probably 1-2BB/hour

This is a trivially easy fold.

IF the guy is truly a NIT. And he is raising into more than one person on turn lmao, he has IT! the nuts. Hell, if it were heads up! and he bets into you on turn..he has it! Talking about a TRUE nit...and yes they exist, go hangout at the hustler and play some 4/8 you'll run into them quite often. Question is, is the guy just nitty or a true NIT.

That is the crux of the thread hustler.

If you can trust he's a nit, it's an easy fold.


If you aren't sure, then call down.

+1

For example:

I have played countless hours with this one guy. He's probably late 50's. Very nice guy.
He only raises AA and KK preflop, and even then not all the time.

I raise KK UTG, this guy calls, another older guy 3bets on the button, I 4bet, all call. 3 to the flop.

Jxx two hearts. I have no hearts.

I bet, old guy calls, Button raises, I 3bet, all call.

Turn 2d

I bet, call, call

River 5s

I bet, call, call


I lose to the first old guys AA. Didn't bet or raise once the whole hand.


So yeah, if THAT guy raises the turn after the PF and flop action in the OP, it's burning money to call down.