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Old 06-04-2012, 04:47 PM   #16
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Re: drunks change everything

Preflop - I usually only play KTo in LP, and only sometimes in HJ. I don't like limping it from MP, especially in games where players are limping AK and KQ.

Flop - I'm fine with the flop play.

Turn - I would call. It is hard to fold here without a really good read on the button. It's a though spot though.
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Old 06-04-2012, 05:15 PM   #17
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Would raising the turn be super bad?
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Old 06-04-2012, 05:42 PM   #18
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Re: drunks change everything

Quote:
Originally Posted by albacorela View Post
Would raising the turn be super bad?
Would the button be stupid enough to fold AA or 99 if the hero raised? Can the hero fold if the button 3 bets?

When games get crazy, you have to be careful that it is the other players who are playing crazy. You don't want to try to out crazy the crazies.
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Old 06-04-2012, 11:59 PM   #19
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Re: drunks change everything

Back to flop. people adjust preflop to other peeps iso raise of drunk, but are they adjusting correctly postflop?
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Old 06-05-2012, 01:37 PM   #20
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Re: drunks change everything

Quote:
Originally Posted by ninefingershuffle View Post
Back to flop. people adjust preflop to other peeps iso raise of drunk, but are they adjusting correctly postflop?
Kit's description "raising with reasonably strong hands on multiple streets (e.g. middle pair)." indicates this might be the case - although what's correct in one hand might be crazy in another.

I don't expect the pfr to fold to a raise on the turn after 4-betting the flop. Underpairs are not a large part of his range.
It's possible but not likely that a flop raise would've folded the pfr out (maybe underpairs and maaaaybe AK/AT), but having the info we have now no one would say that.
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Old 06-05-2012, 09:52 PM   #21
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Re: drunks change everything

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Originally Posted by jesse8888 View Post
I'd play it the same so far and if playing awesome fold the turn now
I don't get how calling two cold on the flop and folding the turn could possibly be correct.
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Old 06-05-2012, 09:53 PM   #22
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Re: drunks change everything

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Originally Posted by holmfries View Post
I don't get how calling two cold on the flop and folding the turn could possibly be correct.
what if you were 100% sure the flop 4 bettor is going to raise the turn?
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Old 06-05-2012, 09:54 PM   #23
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Re: drunks change everything

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Originally Posted by mikeca View Post
Would the button be stupid enough to fold AA or 99 if the hero raised?
.
hes not folding AA and he probably doesnt have 99, although i guess anything's possible because i dont know how he plays.
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Old 06-05-2012, 11:11 PM   #24
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Re: drunks change everything

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Originally Posted by KitCloudkicker View Post
what if you were 100% sure the flop 4 bettor is going to raise the turn?
in this situation u just calculate the pot odds for that action then. you'll be getting something more than 15:2 (4bets 3ways + change) which i think is enough to cold call regardless if btn 2bets the turn.
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Old 06-06-2012, 12:52 AM   #25
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Re: drunks change everything

yeah thats the thing I have no reason to suspect that calling the first turn bet won't result in simply facing 2 cold and THEN folding realizing you're drawing dead.
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Old 06-06-2012, 08:02 AM   #26
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Re: drunks change everything

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Originally Posted by KitCloudkicker View Post
the drunk has been betting with nothing often so people have adjusted by raising with reasonably strong hands on multiple streets (e.g. middle pair).
Quote:
Originally Posted by ninefingershuffle View Post
Back to flop. people adjust preflop to other peeps iso raise of drunk, but are they adjusting correctly postflop?
9finger makes a good point and one that's especially valid in situations like this. The button has six opponents in a 14 sb pot when he sees the flop so it's extremely unlikely that his flop or turn actions have anything to do with "isolating a drunk." He may be thrilled that the drunk is betting his hand for him and/or juicing the pot; but, in large, m-ways pots, his actions are gonna be pretty honest and independent of the drunk.
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Old 06-06-2012, 05:56 PM   #27
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Re: drunks change everything

The drunk guy wasn't a charming and handsome southerner guzzling bud heavies by any chance, was he?
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Old 06-06-2012, 07:37 PM   #28
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Re: drunks change everything

There are no charming and handsome Southerners that guzzle Bud heavies... at least while drunk.
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Old 06-07-2012, 06:58 AM   #29
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Re: drunks change everything

The preflop call wasn't an error; it was an atrocity. That said, since, if the hand had been suited it would have been an easy call, let's just pretend it was (and that the flop contained none of your suit) thus allowing us to focus on the point at hand.

If your assessment of the drunk is accurate we can discount him almost entirely; random hands are not a threat on this flop. The PFR's range is a problem for you since many of his likely holdings contain an Ace. Moreover, neither QQ nor QJ (nor even JJ) can be discounted. As such, a significant portion of his range has you drawing slim to dead. In fact, if he's even semi-lucid, KK and AQs are about the only two hands he can have here that don't cripple yours.

"Hey, who's that guy standing quietly with his hands in his pockets trying to blend in ? Him, over there . . . The one who called the flop the first time through then unhesitatingly called a raise cold on the second trip . . ." How is it that nobody has even thought to ask what the "quiet, unassuming guy" to your immediate left might have ? Isn't this how many 4-8ers (including many winning players) would play a flopped monster (i.e., QJ) ? Isn't it also how some 4-8ers (including most losing players) would play a draw, such as . . . I dunno . . . KT ? Talk about a polarized range; other than a "big" draw or a made hand, what else can anyone whose IQ exceeds a house plant have here ? (Granted, his draw doesn't have to be KT. T9 and AT, and maybe even T8 or 98 might also play their hand this way. However, the fact that KT is far from a long shot should absolutely play into your decision).

You had a chance to avoid this mess preflop. You had another chance to escape on the flop. Even if the huge odds offered by the drunk's flop lead were too good to pass up, cold-calling the second time through was unthinkable - doubly so since it was extremely likely to cost you at least one more bet if the PFR 4-bet, and two more if the drunk then capped (and three more if the hand was played somewhere that allows four raises and the drunk then capped).

Now you're being offered huge odds on the turn - and therein lies the problem: Huge pots tend to get that way as a result of their participants holding big hands.

If you had eight clean outs (i.e., you were drawing to the nuts) you could happily call as many bets as were necessary. Even if "the guy to your left" folded somewhere along the way you'd be receiving a huge overlay on the current money, as well as additional bonus of collecting several river bets. (For the sake of thoroughness, it's worth pointing out that a King on the river will win you the pot some [small] percentage of the time). However, you have zero clean outs, and the outs you do possess are heavily tainted. Seriously, I can't fathom how you win this hand more than one time in ten, and on those occasions when you do get there, any and all river betting benefits your opponents, not you. (What are your plans if the river hits you ? You can't possibly go to war with your hand; all you'll be able to do is call and pray).

Do now what you should have done long ago: Muck your hand and eat the [currently] moderate loss up. And while you do so, take a moment to reflect on the experience and to learn something from it - namely, that even if you were among the tiny percentage of players so skillful that they could barge into this pot with KTo and play it for a profit (assuming such a group even exists), there's nobody on Earth whose E.V. with hand could be more than ever so slightly positive. As such, it's just another opportunity to increase variance while adding pennies per hour to one's hourly rate. Put another way, without a compelling reason to do otherwise, the irony of this situation is that the few who COULD win money with this hand are (or at least should be) the least likely to play it. Risking life and limb by running into heavy traffic every time you see a nickel in the street is a bad plan; it's an even worse plan when there's a good chance that what you think is a nickel is actually something else - something totally worthless.

Meanwhile, curiosity compels me to ask:

Results, please . . .
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Old 06-07-2012, 07:37 AM   #30
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Re: drunks change everything

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Originally Posted by ohnonotthat View Post
The preflop call wasn't an error; it was an atrocity. That said, since, if the hand had been suited it would have been an easy call...
If the hand were suited, it would have been an easy raise. Calling would have been atrocious.

Quote:
Meanwhile, curiosity compels me to ask:

Results, please . . .
I rather doubt kck will indulge your curiosity, despite your well-written and lengthy post.
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