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Thanks DougL I know. I am kind of afraid of the variance in LHE because I have heard it to be monstruous and logically it makes sense at lower stakes since your WR is so miniscule; but the mistakes I have seen people at 6/12 all over are just brutal.
In the math usage, variance will be slightly higher due to pot sizes being large. Still, you're playing relatively few hands so that compensates. I'm guessing your hourly standard deviation will be on the order of 11BB/HR. However, I don't think that's what you mean. You're talking about "biggest downswing I'll see". Indeed, if the rake is high and your WR is small, you'll see soul-crushing downers. The reason people think LHE variance is huge and NL variance isn't, is due to the huge WR that NL crushers have -- bankroll requirements are driven by WR/VAR. There's a name for the term that escapes me.
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I see people flatting opens with like any two suited...
You're really not trying to beat those people. Your stiffest competition is the $6-$7/hand going down the drain, and that drop box is solid. You need the bad players to break even against the drop, and you need them to be actively terrible to come out even better. Move over to the 20/40 and the rake goes from 18BB/HR to 5.25BB/HR. In your share, it goes from 2BB/HR to 0.6BB/HR. So if your 20/40 competition is only 1BB/HR tougher than your 6/12 villains, your WR would be higher there. It won't be, because you're probably not ready for the 20 competition or the absolute $ swings.
Don't ever forget that in high rake games, winning is a real achievement. I started playing 6/12 at Mirage, with a $3 rake @ 5% or something. If you're paying 10% to $7, you're doing another .75BB/HR worse in drop. So if one of us claims we were beating the Mirage game for 1/HR, you're lucky to win in the same conditions due to just the drop.
Variance can also help you. You can use a stretch of running hot to hit the 8/16 or even the 20/40. Very few people every moved up limits without a little help from rungood.
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The move to 40 went well for me, but it was the first time I started regularly encountering tables with more good players than bad. And I'm still a net loser at the 80 with less than 150 hours logged so there's still work to be done.....
what you're saying is exactly what I was thinking. The whole moving up limits thing is a tough road sometimes. Hopefully you don't have too many former online Mid/High crushers clogging up the tables. Even so, I predict it will work out for you in the end.