Be careful with that estimate. With the board paired and the flush draw on the turn, thinking that you have six outs is way too optimistic. When 3 out of 5 players called the flop, you'd be lucky to have 3 outs on average.

Hand 1, others have elaborated why. Cbetting the flop is bad. Betting the turn is worse.

Hand 2. What do you put the BTN on? If it is a J, you should re-raise. If it is potentially a lolslowplay, just calling down is good. You're never folding HU and the 2 on the river is a good card for you.

I'm curious how many players you c-bet AK into? I get that a lot depends on the players themselves, but as a guideline would you c-bet into 2 players? 3?

Fair enough
Guess I'm right to (almost) never lead out my overs OOP OTF vs 4+.

It depends on who they are, their position, the pf action, and the board.

In general though, betting into more than 3 with naked overs is probably a bad idea, even more so on wet flops. As more players see the flop, our pair outs shrink to 3 or less (total).

There are spots where cbetting HU isn't correct, but they are more rare and most non-experts just do better to cbet 100%. 2 opponents most always. 3 depending, not as excited in a 4 way pot. While the players matter, also think about the texture of the flop. Just think about the chance of A high being the best hand. Also, in a world where people seldom fold pairs, you are in the unenviable situation of rarely folding out better. Just start thinking about the average winning hand given the number of people who see a flop, especially the flop that is out there.

The big issue I have with many people thinking deception/range merging is that they forget the fundamentals of multiway pots. When 5 or 7 people see a flop, the best hand is required to win. To quote Todd B's twitter, "show them the nuts". There are some exceptions, but you should just asking how likely you are to have the best hand now and how likely your hand is to become (or stay) the best. Multiway, you should prefer to play for straight value. HU, other considerations come into play. Look at this hand where our OP fires a second cbet into 3 people. What does that even accomplish? Somebody has a pair, you're protecting his hand. The whole balance and hiding your hand conversation has made some ignore the fact that our equity is poor and nobody is folding better.

Hand 1 is something I do as well and shouldn't, you should take the free card as per Howard Lederer style, makes for much less variance and occasionally bet if you are playing with regulars.

GRUNCH

hand 1
If the hand is 3w or less I would cbet but more than that oop i'd just check call for one bet. I would check the turn and bet or raise the river. as played I would probably raise the river.

Hand 2
bet/3b the flop and as played Definitely raise the turn. Had you 3b the flop and got raised ott I would just call down barring any radical reads.

I feel like we would have heard from a J by now (could be way off this part, not sure how live opponents play TP this days), 5x hands are relatively rare, and 2x hands even rarer. They may have slowplayed a set, but JJ and 55 are unlikely, or have a hand like 66.

However, given they probably have all their unpaired hands still in their range I feel like the chances we still have the best hand and the benefit of folding a hand like Q9 make the turn worth a bet. Again, I could be vastly under-estimating the passivity of live players with made hands. If this was online and I did bet the flop for some reason, I think betting the turn is good.

When you bet into 5 passive players whose range is almost any 2 cards and get called in 3 spots the chance they all have a hand like Q9 high, 5 or 6 high is very low. I suggest stoving your equity on the flop to give you a better idea.

At low stakes, a raise on the turn here means you are drawing dead most of the time. That's how passive live play is.

Turn: How are you calling? You've WAY overplayed your hand and now you've been RAISED? Once you call the turn you've gotta call the river when the perfect card hits.


If the button has AA or JJ we lose. Nothing you can do about it. There are no spots to even consider folding here imo.

Hand 1: I don't mind the cbet on the flop when you have position b/c you can get a free card, in addition to getting an idea where you are. Here you have 3 players behind you, so free card probably isn't going to work, and you could get raised. So I wouldn't bet on this flop. But it's just one small bet, and it's a sizeable pot, so getting a couple folds means it's not such a bad bet, IMO.

However, the turn play is where the hand really went south. With 3 players having called your flop bet, you can't keep betting here, especially when the board pairs. And having bet on the turn, when you get raised, you're most likely drawing dead, so you absolutely have to fold at this point. There's a good chance the raiser has something like A5, I'd say.

The J on the flop positively crushes you in a 5 way pot full of over callers. thats why I hate AK when a singleton J or Q comes on the dry flop. IF it goes check check Ivery well may check here with just about every thing save AJs QQ or KK. I might occasionally mix it up with a set as well.

Im finding much better balance by checking more than a few hands rather than c bet in these situations. it allows me to run traps and bluff the turn much more effectively it also allows me to take advantage of passive players and players who bet inappropriately from late position or through out. it also saves me many bets in situations where I would like to defer the lead in exchange for good relative position. this allows me to divine and play implied odds with much greater accuracy in such cases.

hand 2: it sucks when you run Kings into sets or aces. but its going to happen and you cant always fold over pairs to turn raises. being observant and aware of player archetypes and their tendencies esp on the turn can go along way towards outperforming in these situations. Rest assured your not ever going to get them all right, no one does.

Furthermore, in such a big pot things aren't as clear cut as you would think. some people say this pot is too big to bluff at because they will always call down esp with any hand that can beat a bluff. on the other hand if they cant be bluffing you should fold. Plus a bluff semi bluff or thin value raise doesn't have to work all that often to be profitable. (although a 3 big bet bluff is a different story altogether. and semi educated players get this wrong all the time esp against observant opponents or those who cant fold a hand)