Quote:
Originally Posted by faxanadu
Isn't the river going to bring a crappy card about 50% of the time that will cause me to check behind or lose 1 more bet to a made hand? Add that to the times i do get check raised or he's calling down with a weak queen ... i'd assume at best i break even in the long run betting the turn.
What river is a crappy card? You have second pair and an open ender. Any A or 9 gives you the effective nuts. Any card below a 7 (non heart) doesn't change the board and gives you a chance to bet for value.
Mostly, you have to think about his range. Can he have a straight? Yes. Can he have two pair? Yes. Can he have lol-slowplayed a hand like 55? Yes. But he's going to have way more worse jacks, flopped straight draws that turned a pair of T's, heart draws, A hi spade draws, pocket pairs 22-88, and hands like A5o. Against that range, you need to bet
Code:
PokerCruncher-Advanced-iPhone V.8.2.1
(Equity, Win, Tie)
Player 1: 65.3% 62.5% 5.56% [KsJd]
Player 2: 34.7% 31.9% 5.56% {88-22, ATs, A5s, As9s-As6s, As4s-As2s, Ah9h-Ah6h, Ah4h-Ah2h, KJs-K9s, K5s, Kh8h-Kh6h, Kh4h-Kh2h, QJs, Q6s-Q2s, JTs, T8s+, Th7h, 98s, 9h7h-9h6h, 8h5h+, 75s, 7h6h, 65s, 6h4h, 54s, AJo-ATo, A5o, KJo-K9o, K5o, QJo, JTo, T8o+, 98o, 65o}
Board: [Qs Jh 5h Ts ?]
Deal To: River
Dead Cards: {}
Monte Carlo Simulation: 500000 trials