It's a 4-8 Kill game. Table is passive and loose and lots of bad players. In other words, a great game. I have five racks, and if players are even bothering to notice, I suspect they think I am too aggressive and "lucky."

Kill is on and I have the button with Ad10d. Five callers, I raise from button, and both blinds join in along with everyone who limped. Typical for this table. Eight players (out of nine at table) see the flop.

Flop: 6h, 7d, 8d. I have flush draw to the nuts and the gutshot straight to the ten.

Checked around to me. I bet. Small blind 2-bets and 4 people cold call. I three bet. Small blind caps. One more player folds, so it's five of us to the turn. The pot is over 250 at this point.

Here's my question: let's assume that the small blind has flopped the nut straight. I've never seen this guy get even slightly out of line. He doesn't raise even with huge draws. He is EXTREMELY straight ahead, if a bit loose pre-flop. Suited 9-10 is definitely in his range. (I even think he could just call if he flopped a set, and if he had the bottom end of the straight, he also might call to "wait to see what happens.")

When the turn comes out blank (I think it was a 2 of spades), he bets again, and he gets four callers before it gets to me.

If I raise here, it seems highly likely that he will three bet.

What do I do on the turn?

Thanks.

Piotr.

Raise and hope he 3! so these nutjobs can call. You have 2 or 3 outs to a likely split (depending on whether the 9 in his hand is 9), and 9 outs to the pure/likely nuts. These players are clearly hemorrhaging money, and the pot is huge.


Board: 6h 7d 8d 2s
Dead:

equity win tie pots won pots tied
Hand 0: 21.862% 19.73% 02.13% 309701 33488.42 { AdTd }
Hand 1: 71.367% 66.91% 04.46% 1050340 69953.50 { T9s, T9o }
Hand 2: 01.716% 00.87% 00.85% 13643 13290.33 { 33+, A2s+, K2s+, Q2s+, J4s+, T6s+, 96s+, 86s+, 76s, 65s, A2o+, K5o+, Q7o+, J7o+, T8o+, 98o }
Hand 3: 01.720% 00.96% 00.76% 15018 11980.92 { 22+, A2s+, K2s+, Q2s+, J2s+, T3s+, 95s+, 85s+, 75s+, 64s+, 54s, A2o+, K2o+, Q5o+, J7o+, T7o+, 97o+, 87o }
Hand 4: 01.737% 01.03% 00.71% 16187 11072.25 { 22+, A2s+, K2s+, Q2s+, J2s+, T2s+, 93s+, 84s+, 74s+, 63s+, 53s+, 43s, A2o+, K2o+, Q3o+, J5o+, T6o+, 96o+, 86o+, 76o }
Hand 5: 01.599% 00.95% 00.64% 14979 10120.58 { 22+, A2s+, K2s+, Q2s+, J2s+, T2s+, 92s+, 82s+, 73s+, 62s+, 52s+, 43s, A2o+, K2o+, Q2o+, J3o+, T5o+, 95o+, 85o+, 75o+, 65o, 54o }

as long as you feel confident that the players in between will continue to call (seems reasonable given pot size and their play thus far in the hand), you are happy w/ every bet that goes in because you have positive equity. so, raise.

Your equity is close to 20% so if all 4 call then your raise is ev neutral but if the bettor 3b and they fold then you've isolated yourself against the best hand so calling isn't a bad option.

You are going to win the pot something like 20% of the time. If you raise and everyone calls, you will be putting in 20% of the money. If some of the other three callers fold when faced with calling 2 bets on the turn, you will have put in more than 20% of the extra money.

I don't think raising here makes sense. It doesn't really increase your long term winnings. It does increase your variance. It doesn't get anyone to fold any hand that you want to fold, and it may fold out hands that would call on the river if you make your draw.

Just call the turn. No reason to get fancy here.

If the small blind is very straightforward and you're sure he'd only cap the flop with 9T, then raising makes no sense as even passive players usually will bet/3-bet the turn with the current nuts. No need to potentially fold out bad players. Just call.

Confirm call only.

the fact that he raises pretty much tells you have at best 9 outs probably less. almost assuredly less. since you have the best possible position a call is AOK.

Which I somehow turned into six. Even so, it's still a call. Note to self: flush draws tend to like their money going in on the flop.

call the turn.

PILE DRIVING THE FLOP AND GETTING A CHEAP TURN IS A REALLY GOOD WAY TO PLAY AT A NUT FLUSH DRAW W/ OVERCARDS.

esp with another draw on board.