For what purpose? If you estimate an hourly win rate of 1 BB/hr, and your hourly SD is 13 BB or less, your win rate is statistically significant here.

Last night I saw a guy fold damn near every hand for two hours, then cc a raise pre and cc two more when it got capped. He ends up taking the pot with 2p with K8o.

What had he been folding? Lol 3/6.

That's depressing.

indeed there isn't.

lol ^ nh

I'm not sure if there's a formal meaning of win rate is statistically significant as used here. But I'll clarify what I think you're saying:

For a 500-hour "session", the SD of the session is equal to sqrt(hrs) * hourly SD, so 22.36 hrs * 13 BB/hr = 290 BB. This means that if we estimated that we were a 1 BB/hr winner, but after 500 hours we're dead even, then we're performing at -1.72 SDs. By dumb luck, we get a result that's 1.72 SDs or more away from the mean in either direction around 8% of the time (p=.08).

Because p=.05 is the most commonly used definition of statistical significance in academic lit, it makes me wonder if you took the one-tailed value of .04 when the two-tailed value would be more appropriate.

Regardless, in layman's terms, if you play 500 hours at an SD of 13 BB/hr and run dead even, it's only 8% likely that you're "really a 1BB/hr winner" in those games you played in. That doesn't mean you couldn't actually be beating the game for less than that of course.

So I suck at poker.

Maybe your SD is more than 13 BB/hour.

How do you calculate SD by hour when you just play live? Short of writing down your chip stack every hour?

IDK the math stuff really but if you sweated me you'd prob be 'wtf, AGAIN?' also just like me. I'm playing in action packed games so I go through significant swings but I updated my records yesterday and was all , that's all. I'm basically even over the course of the year which hasn't added up to all that much playing time bec of mom's condition. That might be affecting my play, I'm not sure but I don't think so. She'll be better soon so I'll see what happens.

Beats me. I write down my chip stack every hour. I'm a geek.

(Fortunately SD converges faster than winrate, so I only do this my first 100 hours or so in a game. I figure virtually no one else is going to this trouble, so I'll take the fall for science. Like I said, I'm a geek.)

Back from Vegas, which included a one day 20/40 session at the bellagio. My move up run good continues. The game was weird - great between 12-5ish and terrible thereafter. I'd have to search, but pretty sure that 2+2er Gobbo was on my right. First orbit I expertly take two to the face on the turn, river a flush on a paired board and win a massive pot (7 ways, 2 bets PF). Next orbit I 4 bet AA otb 4 ways. Flop an A97, all hearts. River brings 4 to a straight, I bet and I am still good.

Guy on my left bought in 10x for $300 at a shot. He was amazing. At one point he had $30, looked at his cards (T4s), open limped, then bought in for $300. No one complained that he wanted it to play.

Good times.

-hf

All the formulas were discussed in last month's LC thread and can be found all over the internet and books. You don't have to write down you chipstack every hour.

You'll probably end up with a SD number between 12 and 13 BB/hr.

You can't conclude that from your results. If the numbers above are correct, close to 10% of ALL 1BB/hr players have results similar (or worse) than yours at 500 hrs.

On the other hand, if during your sessions you think you are misplaying a lot of hands then your conclusion may be correct.

The good new is that there's a lot that can be done to improve our game, but nothing we can do about how the cards come in a few hundred hours.