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Old 05-29-2012, 12:39 AM   #1
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AQs in killpot

Very loose $4/8 game. Most pots are at least 5 handed, and quite often 7 or 8 handed. Whether it is 1 bet or 2 bets doesn't seem to make much difference. In other words, a great game.

It's a kill, so $8/16 this hand. I am UTG + 1. Guy on my immediate right (UTG) open raises to $16. I look down and I have AQ of clubs.

UTG had been pretty tight, and hadn't raised very much at all. My first impulse was to 3 bet, but I didn't see the point of isolating if I am isolating against a range I am not a favorite against. I would put him on a range of 99-AA, and AJ+. Even though my AQs is behind that range, is it still a 3-bet because I have position and can represent stuff? I just flatted. Besides being afraid of isolating against a better hand, another reason I just flatted was the people behind me were so loose, I figured I'd get a 5 or 6 handed pot, when I had a nice multiway hand. I would have mucked if the AQ was offsuit, and of course 3 bet AK. Were these good reasons to just flat here, or was 3 betting better? Thanks.
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Old 05-29-2012, 02:02 AM   #2
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Re: AQs in killpot

i will 3 bets so i can charge whoever limp in and cold call with junk card one more bet
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Old 05-29-2012, 12:01 PM   #3
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Re: AQs in killpot

Remember that if you do manage to isolate the opener with a reraise, there is going to be more than usual dead money in the pot because of the kill. You don't actually have to be ahead of the opener for a reraise to be profitable.

And if you don't manage to isolate the opener, people in these games call with hands that are well behind yours. Even if you are behind the opener's range, the bad overcalls add profitably to your expectation.

Your range for playing in this spot is not going to be terribly wide. If you have a cold-calling range as a subset of your playing range, it will be smaller still, and so will your three-betting range. It becomes easier for other players to play against you, compared to three-betting with your entire playing range (or to coldcalling with your entire playing range, which isn't a good idea).
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Old 05-29-2012, 12:40 PM   #4
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Re: AQs in killpot

This is one of those spots where the accuracy of your range for the villain really matters. The range of 99+, AJ+ you gave makes AQs a 45/55 dog. That range is a little odd, as most people go lower with a suit. Also, we have to decide if the villain adjusts to a kill by opening wider or tighter. Let's say he opens up a a more LAGTAG range. We go to 52/48 as a favorite.

*******Equity*****Win*****Tie
UTG****49.00%**42.80%***6.20%*{ 99+, ATs+, KQs, AJo+, KQo }
MP1****51.00%**44.80%***6.20%*{ AcQc }

Let's say he nits it up becase "people are calling anyway". We go to a 37/63 dog.

*******Equity*****Win*****Tie
UTG****63.24%**58.54%***4.70%*{ JJ+, AJs+, AKo }
MP1****36.76%**32.06%***4.70%*{ AcQc }

Add in some company. The BB and the killer with random hands. Maybe a couple loose callers for a single raise (drop top 5%, play down to 50%).

*******Equity*****Win*****Tie
UTG****28.56%**27.25%***1.31%*{ JJ+, AJs+, AKo }
MP1****20.01%**18.45%***1.57%*{ AcQc }
MP3****13.01%**12.27%***0.74%*{ cold caller }
CO*****13.10%**12.37%***0.74%*{ cold caller }
BU*****12.68%**12.03%***0.65%*{ random }
BB*****12.63%**11.98%***0.65%*{ random }

Notice how we do fine against even a crushing premium in a MW pot?
Start with what AB said:
Quote:
Remember that if you do manage to isolate the opener with a reraise, there is going to be more than usual dead money in the pot because of the kill. You don't actually have to be ahead of the opener for a reraise to be profitable.
Then think about your villain. If he's a nitty open, you don't want to go 4 bets HU to wonder if an A is good on the flop. You prefer company. If he opens a little wider, you can push a small edge in position with dead money as a buffer.
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Old 05-29-2012, 12:47 PM   #5
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Re: AQs in killpot

When I play against other tag-ish players, I can usually pin down their coldcalling ranges to medium pocket pairs, and larger suited broadways. That said, we're not playing against a field of tags and they probably don't have your cc'ing range pinned down.

All in all, I think you'll make more money multiway.

You say the other players are calling for 2 bets with slim holdings, and that's what we can expect if we coldcall. I'd rather do that and be able to iso postflop than to go headsup against a very tight range. But if they're going to throw in 3 bets in a killpot, then of course trey it.
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Old 05-29-2012, 03:13 PM   #6
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Re: AQs in killpot

I like a 3-bet. Good chance you'll get the killer and BB to fold which adds dead money to the pot - and if they (or anyone else) call then they're making a big mistake which is what we want.

I don't mind playing HU in position even if his range is tight. He may have been playing tight to this point because he's card dead - maybe he opens light in kill pots, etc.. who knows? Unless they've proven otherwise, I wouldn't give a 4/8 player enough credit to ever fold here. If I'm not folding, I'm raising as AQ does better vs 1 or 2 players than 5+
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Old 05-29-2012, 03:24 PM   #7
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Re: AQs in killpot

Quote:
Originally Posted by Lagitup View Post
I'm raising as AQ does better vs 1 or 2 players than 5+
AQs does not. Given a tight open, the MW qualities of the hand as a suited one gap plays better in a volume pot. As I showed, you go from being a 2:1 dog HU to being putting in 1/6 the money with 1/5 the equity (nice edge). When you're way behind preflop to the initial raiser, you want company with this hand. It loves 5+. If you are closer to a favorite against the original raise, you can start relying on your high card strength. As you become a favorite, the dead money comes into play. "AQ does better vs 1 or 2 players" is a bad way to consider a hand -- the interplay between the opening range, your hand, and other players make this an interesting spot. The simple saying doesn't begin to cover it.
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Old 05-29-2012, 03:48 PM   #8
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Lagitup View Post
If I'm not folding, I'm raising as AQ does better vs 1 or 2 players than 5+
The exception is when their range has you crushed. Doug's analysis shows the details for AQs. For AQo against a super tight range of say QQ+ AK+ folding is best.
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Old 05-29-2012, 05:08 PM   #9
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Re: AQs in killpot

DougL has pretty much nailed it, I think. If they are so loose they will call 3 just as easily as calling 2, I 3-bet, but if not, I don't mind flatting and playing a huge multiway pot.

AQo is a much harder problem, I think. But as long as you don't fold with AQs, you're probably going to do ok assuming you can play well post.
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Old 05-29-2012, 05:38 PM   #10
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Re: AQs in killpot

I'd choose to flat and build a big pot. Sounds so much more fun than playing AQ against a tight player.
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Old 05-29-2012, 10:18 PM   #11
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Re: AQs in killpot

Thanks a lot for the comments, guys! I really appreciate it; very helpful.
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Old 06-04-2012, 12:03 AM   #12
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Re: AQs in killpot

not this:
Quote:
Originally Posted by kickingbird View Post
I'd choose to flat and build a big pot. Sounds so much more fun than playing AQ against a tight player.
this:
Quote:
AlanBostick
Re: AQs in killpot
Remember that if you do manage to isolate the opener with a reraise, there is going to be more than usual dead money in the pot because of the kill. You don't actually have to be ahead of the opener for a reraise to be profitable.

And if you don't manage to isolate the opener, people in these games call with hands that are well behind yours. Even if you are behind the opener's range, the bad overcalls add profitably to your expectation.

Your range for playing in this spot is not going to be terribly wide. If you have a cold-calling range as a subset of your playing range, it will be smaller still, and so will your three-betting range. It becomes easier for other players to play against you, compared to three-betting with your entire playing range (or to coldcalling with your entire playing range, which isn't a good idea).
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Old 06-05-2012, 07:26 PM   #13
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Re: AQs in killpot

I'm right on board with DougL's posse.

The tigher UTG+1's opening range is, the more inclined I am to cold-call and invite a cascade of callers behind. The looser he is, the more inclined I am to 3-bet with AQo (never mind AQs).

The dynamics of the kill pot are important, too. Does it generally tighten up or loosen up? Does an EP raise chase people out or lure them in, eyes glazing over at the size of the looming pot?

The other question is how to play the flop, if you flop the NFD. Will rasing UTG+1 and facing the field with two cold thin the herd to create a stampede into the even bigger pot? Or somewhere in between?
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Old 06-05-2012, 08:10 PM   #14
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Re: AQs in killpot

Basically agree with Doug.

Quote:
Originally Posted by AlanBostick View Post
Your range for playing in this spot is not going to be terribly wide. If you have a cold-calling range as a subset of your playing range, it will be smaller still, and so will your three-betting range. It becomes easier for other players to play against you, compared to three-betting with your entire playing range (or to coldcalling with your entire playing range, which isn't a good idea).
Well I think this advice is pretty good if your playing against reasonable opponents, I think its poor advice for the games hero is describing. Villains in these games aren't going to notice if you have to cold calling range in this spot, therefore when you 3-bet you have JJ/AK+.

Balance is only an issue when good players can exploit you. Your going to be much more profitable in this games just playing an exploitable strategy that takes advantage of villains poor play.
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Old 06-05-2012, 09:17 PM   #15
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Re: AQs in killpot

id call to maximize equity.

no 4/8 player is going to be paying attention to your cold call range so forget that. even if they did, a cold call range of mid pp's, suited broadways, and suited aces is big enough to be difficult to read.

also fwiw i cold call aces in this spot a lot. its a great spot to let everyone in for two bets and then protect your hand in a big pot with a flop raise. and if the flop comes rags and UTG has an overpair, he'll put you on top pair when you raise, so he'll 3 bet. Then you can collect even more bets on later streets. It's a high variance play but the way you beat low limit HE is to win big multiway pots, not small ones.

Last edited by KitCloudkicker; 06-05-2012 at 09:24 PM.
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