AsKd MP 8/16 8handed

A tag yuppie raises from utg1 and I 3b. Folds to the sb - a taggy asian 4b (almost AI) and a bad lagtard old persian man in the bb wtf caps it. We call.

Flop 4w (20sb) ... JcTc8s ... asain bets, Persian LOL folds, yuppie calls ... I call.

3w turn (11.5bb) ... 7h ... asain throws in his last three chips and the yuppie asks if he can raise. He does and its 11 $2 chips to me. What to do?

You have 3.5-5 outs, do the math.

I only see 6-10 heavily discounted straights in the yuppies range. Do you think he opens A9s utg+1? No sets because he didn't raise the flop. No 2 pairs(JTs?). No overpairs because he didn't raise the flop. I put the yuppie on AJ that wanted to see what you would do on the flop. Once you just call the flop he thinks he has the nuts, so he raises the turn to get it heads up with the shortstack. I give you between 3-5 outs, getting about 11.5:1.4 with rio on A river, 0 implied odds on K river, about 1 implied bet on Q river. It adds up to about 9.33:1. Add in the possibility that sb actually has a hand and I fold. Normally I would completely disregard the all in player, but you describe him as a tag who 4bet preflop so he must be considered

Nice post Bob, yes asain has been totally quiet until now. It looked like to me the yuppie was trying to get me out so that he could isolate himself with the all in. (By folding ace high or a better ace high) ...

Also the yuppie was pretty tight too. Doing work while playing... I was up for a table change because besides the Persian the table was pretty taggy. Sorry shoulda included this in my op. Also I just spoke with a floor man and apparently he shouldn't have been able to raise here. When its less than half a bb to go all in they can only call the three chips or complete the bet to eight chips giving me, next to act, the option to raise. The dealer made a mistake here apparently.

Thanks again for the fb.

Does any hand make sense for the yuppie besides p99? If he's pat, he's not slow playing any flop on this board and this field, especially QQ, and you've gotta beat Persia too, so your AK outs are too rare to consider. (Edit: okay, a case can be made for AJ, but we still agree on a fold with Persia in the formula.)

But you are closing the action and getting odds to draw to a queen. But those outs need to be discounted for the flush, and the times Persia has QQ.

If you are getting 9.5/1 on a call, and we assume you have 3.5 outs, that just isn't enough.

In real life, probably too thin a margin to figure out, so neither fold or call is a big error.

i mighta folded flop but def muck turn here

It's closer than it looks with all the draws/redraws, but we're getting like 20:1.

wtf

+1

I get 212:22 = 9.6/1

On the flop?

Also, I didn't realize we had a gut to the nuts when I first said it may look close. This is not a close flop decision. Folding here is terrible.

giving it thot, im wrong about flop,but not turn
i dont think any of our outs r clean,not even Q

No love for a raise on the flop?

I wouldn't consider it if the SB could 3-bet, but a raise here puts him all-in and gives us a chance to free-card UTG+1, assuming he would have already raised if he was going to.

As played - AJ, A9s or 99 seem the most likely, but do you think there's any chance this villain would raise AK/AQ/KQ here to potentially buy himself a few more outs? If not, we've got 3 clean Qs, one dirty Q, and 2 clean Ks vs AJ only. So maybe 3.5-4 outs getting 9.6:1, and we need more like 12:1 to call.

raising flop for a free card sounds excellent to me.