This is a follow-up to this thread.

Where I am now

So I’ve been playing 6-12 at Oaks for 450 hours now, and I’m beating it at 1.14 BB/hr with fairly generous tipping. About 100 hours ago, I went through a downswing that compelled me to plug a few leaks, and since then I’ve been killing the game for > 4 BB/hr (with some rungood obviously, not that I expect to sustain that long term.) When I sit down, I feel supremely confident, like I can dominate the table; I have a good read on most of the regulars, and I am rarely surprised at what happens in a hand.

Lately I’ve been taking shots at 15-30. I do NOT feel so confident there! I'm up slightly after about 40 hours (obviously a minuscule sample), but I feel like that’s due more to good cards than superior play. So I’m looking for some advice on how to transition to this game.

Differences between 6-12 and 15-30

For those who don’t play at Oaks, most 15-30 players are a quantum leap above 6-12 players. There are typically 2-4 players to a flop (compared with 3-7 players in 6-12), and the pots are a lot smaller. Whereas 6-12 tables often have at least four or five really bad/mediocre players, a typical 15-30 table may have only one or two. There are often one or two 30-60 regs or solid props at the table, and the remaining players tend to be comparatively solid. (I’m told there are times when 15-30 plays like 3-6, but I haven’t been lucky enough to sit then.)

So I need to make some changes. I have some specific ideas in terms of preflop play already, but I don’t want to reveal them b/c several posters here are 15-30 Oaks players! I’m more looking for advice on improving my postflop play. Specifically:

Hand reading and ranges

I’m finding it much harder to read hands. Most 15-30 regs are much more aggressive, and there’s more bluffing, but they’re also starting with better hands. I’m having a hard time knowing when to let a hand go, basically. I’ve snapped off more bluffs than I would have at 6-12, but I’ve also called down with too many losing hands. I’m having a hard time finding the right balance.

I suspect this is partly because I’m not strong at constructing specific ranges for my opponents, nor using the right inductive logic to match them with the betting pattern in the hand. In 6-12, I can get away with roughly categorizing villains as “loose”, “very loose”, etc.; trying to put a lot of them on specific ranges is probably a waste of time, and there are a much larger number of villains. By contrast, the 15-30 universe of players is much smaller, and I need to start doing this.

I generally have an excellent memory, but unfortunately when it comes to remembering specific hands, my brain seems to fail me. It sticks every poker event into short term memory, and dumps it out as soon as the hand is over, for the most part. Does anyone have any specific techniques or tricks they use to construct ranges for their villains?

The second thing is using inductive logic (meaning matching up their betting patterns with their ranges to narrow down their possible hands). I can do this pretty well if you give me enough time to think about it, but it’s a lot harder to do in real time. Would be interested in learning any sources or methods or to improve this.

Deception and tells

Third, I feel like an open book at that table. Like not only do my bets make it obvious what my hand is, but like I’m also giving off physical tells I’m not aware of. I’ve seen a couple players (including one or two at 6-12) who got very good reads off me in specific hands where it shouldn’t have been obvious based on my betting pattern. I wish I could hire a tell expert to sit down in the game and tell me what they’re picking up! Absent that, any good sources/methods/reads for disguising my game?

Conversely, I need to start paying more attention to my opponents and picking up any tells they may have. Is Mike Caro's book still good for this, or will most players at the 15-30 level be way beyond that?

Blind stealing and defense

This isn’t an issue in 6-12 for the most part, and it isn't covered in Miller's SSHE. I need some good advice/reading on how to approach this systematically, what ranges to use, etc. I seem to remember a good thread on this somewhere, but I can’t find it now. Any help?

Thanks, and sorry for the TL;DR text.

I should add one thing to this:

Bluffing

I feel like I'm terrible at bluffing. Fortunately, that doesn't really matter at 6-12, as it only occasionally makes sense to bluff. But I gather that it's more important at 15-30, at least when I'm heads up.

I'm not sure why I'm bad at it, other than the fact that I simply don't do it very often -- I feel like I'm either giving it away with some physical tell, or else I'm doing it in spots where it doesn't make sense in the context of my prior betting.

Can someone confirm that this should be a more often-used tool at 15-30, and are there any good resources for improving on this skill?

thanks again

Adding, just stumbled onto this thread, which seems to answer a lot of my questions.

Take a look at a thread in the midstakes forum where a guy asks for advise similar to yours: pretty much how to play poker well.

There are two good books recommend and a subscription to DC (my choice) or cardrunners is imo mandatory.

After watching (as a minimum) BBBs series on DC, I'd recommend playing a lot of 1/2 and 2/4 6max online and reviewing those sessions. Live games under 40 are normally easier/same than those.

I'm assuming it's this thread, but let me know if not.

That's the one I had in mind.

I'm going to reply to this thread in detail over the week. Just wanted to let you know I saw it but typing novels on my phone is difficult.

I've only played a few sessions in the Oaks 15, but based on my observations and the observations I've had when some of them come down to Bay101 to play...

I think just learning each player's tendencies and leaks is going to pay the most dividends. The player pool is small, so figuring out how each of them play and how to exploit them is probably what's going to earn you the most money. People are (generally) not cold-calling with 95o anymore, so those major leaks are gone. But some of the common leaks I see Oaks 15 and 30 players have are:

1) Raising/3-betting with bare overcards on the flop. It's almost like if they call you on the flop, they have it, and when they raise or 3-bet your flop c/r, they just have overcards or some weak pair that they intend to check behind on the turn.

2) Donking. I don't know why, but people love to donk a pair into the pfr.

3) Some people just randomly check back the flop when they miss HU. I'm not sure why, but I guess this explains why others counter by doing 2).

4) FSDR. Either raising for a free card on the flop, or raising for a free showdown on the turn.

5) A few people just cold-call first in.

So figure out how you want to counter these types of strategies, and who employs what when, and you should be well on your way to pwn'ing these guys.

MA, listen what this guy has to say. Through a lot of time, hard work and learning, calli grinded his way up from 6/12 to 15/30 (and now 30/60).

Also- search for callipygian's masterful post about "rake trap v. Variance trap".

Actually, 3/6. Some of my first posts on 2p2 were about moving up to 6/12.

Part 1 of n

In one sense, moving up is the same no matter what levels. Opponents get tighter and more aggressive, you get charged more to draw and get paid less when you hit. On the other hand, 6/12 to 15/30 is probably the biggest jump.

1. It's a big monetary jump (2.5x).
2. It's a jump from solid SSHE to almost-MSLHE.
3. You can no longer avoid dealing with stealing blinds and having yours stolen.
4. You go from a multitable, large player pool format to a single table, small player pool format.

It's important not to be intimidated. Think of the worst 6/12 game you've ever been in. That'll be a bad 15/30 game too. Think of a decent 6/12 game. That'll be the best 15/30 game that you'll see. You'll see a lot of the same mistakes, just fewer of them on average.

The temptation will be to focus on the best players. Don't. First, identify the people you know how to exploit. Exploit them. Second, don't feel you need to prove yourself to the better players. If they think of you as a fish at first, who cares?

I like showdown-bound lines when starting off. It's EV- but you need to build confidence in b/f (still your bread and butter). If you don't, as soon as you hit a rough patch you will end up worrying that everyone has you figured out and panicking. See what people are waiting to raise the turn with. See what people are donking with. Both are highly villain-dependent; the player pool is small enough that you should be able to remember 90%.

A lot of the weird plays you see at 6/12 were passed down from 15/30. You have seen the "free card teh AK ui play." You have seen the turn spaz raise. You'll just see it more frequently, and more often done correctly.

Part 2 of n

Hand reading / ranges

One of the exercises that you should do is to think about ranges when you're not in a hand. Try to predict the action as it unfolds - MP opens pre (KQo+, ATs+, 88+), SB donks (top pair+, no flush draw), MP raises (2:1 flush draw to overpair), etc. See how often you're suprised at showdown.

A huge mistake that people make is expanding a villain's range as the hand goes on. Ranges get wider from the flop to the turn to the river. You want to be thinking forward, and if by the river you realize your range is ****ed up, go back to the beginning and start over. Or mark it mentally for review.

A lot of 15/30 players have pretty flat ranges - they play too much up front and not enough in back. Someone might totally be a LAG from EP and a TP from LP. Recognize flat vs. shaped, static vs. dynamic ranges.

As for wanting to withhold things from 2p2, that's your choice but I believe most of the people who you want to get advice from will agree there's no shortage of exploitability in 15/30 so it's not like you're giving away secrets or anything. It's your choice, but the biggest advantage of 2p2 is airing your dirty laundry for some really good players to help clean. IMO.

I'm pretty sure I've posted my exact UTG and OTB opening ranges. *shrug*

Nice posts calli, some comments:

I think this is true until you get to high-stakes, at which point players actually get looser.

I think you mean that ranges get narrower as the hand progresses, right?

what were some of the leaks you went back to fix? (if ya don't mind me asking)

Callipygian, this is perfect - thanks!

Thanks for this in particular -- this confirms my initial instincts, it's exactly what I've started out doing, at least until I can get a read on some of these opponents.