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Old 07-28-2012, 05:49 AM   #16
Carpal \'Tunnel
 
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Re: 8/16 Missed Value?

This definitely gets filed under, "value bets better LHE players than me would make that I probably wouldn't make right now." I would probably convince myself that I'm value cutting myself against a passive ace at the table, but now I see that a passive ace doesn't really make sense for anyone here.
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Old 07-29-2012, 02:28 PM   #17
centurion
 
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Re: 8/16 Missed Value?

Against players who would showdown here with 3rd pair/Qx, etc., go ahead and bet for value. UTG is likely sitting on Qx (and AQ makes no sense), and the other bad player could really have anything that might call.

Against players who chase a lot but won't call river bets without 2nd pair+, I would be wary of betting here. These types of players will just call with 2pair, Ax, etc. On this particular board, it's hard to imagine this player category calling with something like 87 by the river.

Very player dependent spot. Given reads, I'd bet and laugh when I get looked up by hands like 88, Q3o, etc.
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Old 08-02-2012, 05:29 PM   #18
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Re: 8/16 Missed Value?

Given your reads, and the turn action, I think this is a pretty straightforward VB. Yeah, you valueown yourself some here and it sucks but that's the price of playing very aggro.

Not only will you often win when called, you will get some serious looks from weaker players who think you are crazy for betting this turn and river with KK. Which will make them call you down even thinner (or maybe not, either way betting this river is def +EV)
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Old 08-07-2012, 04:28 PM   #19
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Re: 8/16 Missed Value?

NH I dont think a check on the river is terrible in this 4 way pot, limit game.

Someone usually donk bets the ace or check raises it more often then not, with weaker players. You being viewed as the local pro and still betting the ace weaker players will just call down there donkd Ax so a river check is the play.
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Old 08-07-2012, 07:08 PM   #20
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Re: 8/16 Missed Value?

Quote:
Originally Posted by wbatas View Post
After thinking about the reads, V1 would've showed aggression with aces up or 2p or sets on the turn. I see kq/qj calling on this river.
This was what I was thinking. V1 is aggro on a bone dry flop and then shuts down on the Turn. This just screams QX - so KQ or QJ are likely. Perhaps there is some weird QXs hand in there, as I am not sure how wide his UTG limping range is.

Since V3 will play passively we can consider a b/f if he throws out the unbelievably strong River c/r. The only thing that sucks with the b/f is that the pot is fairly large so folding a winner would be a disaster.

V1 called turn, so he probably calls river, esp if you are seen as (overly)aggro. V3 seems to be calling along with not much to draw to, so he may overcall the river in 3rd place, so you can get even more on your value bet.

All things considered I think that this leans towards a bet, though I don't kick myself too hard if I miss it.
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