Honestly this seems totally backwards to me. I think a much better solution is to error on the side of getting to showdown and seeing what they have rather than assume their bets make sense and they play logical. If we're wrong we lose 1-2 BBs, if we're right we would have made a much bigger mistake by folding.

You won't be right often enough to pay for the 1-2 BBs you will lose the vast majority of the time.

This has been one of the harder (but more important) adjustments I've made to my 6-12 play -- learning to know when to let the damned hand go. When I first started playing, I thought exactly like what you just said. After paying those 1-2 BBs over and over, I finally learned to start paying attention to when people donk or raise me after I've been doing all the betting/raising.

Now, when I've been betting the whole hand, and someone donks or raises me, it's a snap fold 95% of the time, unless I've got the outs to call, or it's on the river and the pot is ginormous.

[Adding: I don't play much outside of the one club I play at. Maybe 6-12 players elsewhere are different, but where I play, the above holds true.]

This seems like a pretty easy fold to me..and I don't like to fold

Do you think it's a standard play for an "aggressive" player to checkraise with an ace (or donk the flop)? Caution isn't exactly her middle name. But then again, you gotta be a little cuckoo to bet into 2 players with anything else, given the board and action. This woman is a handreader's nightmare tbh.

Let's not forget another player in the hand here.
Honestly this isn't close.

Maybe it is a fold but I don't think it is a "not even close fold"

This v has been weird pre flop but post flop that T7 hand shows that she is really thinking about her own hand only (no CR turn, no v bet on river). I think that 4 on turn helped her hand with a pair, open ended, or pair plus gut shot enough to counter those times she hit 2 pair. I dont see her playing 1 pair of unimproved aces this way and I think we should expect her to donk flopped ace anyways.

Just to add one more thing. Against 47 or 24 we have respectable 8 outs (ignoring other guys hand).

I don't see in the reads that she's particularly aggressive at all. Donking top pair is pretty standard for a passive, but that she check/called one doesn't seem too much of a stretch.

A lot of people are like "omg I'm outkicked" on the flop and then all of a sudden on the turn remember, "oh yeah i haz top pair."

I turbo-fold the turn.

Also, +1 to MApoker and leo doc - I'm not cbetting the flop.

so far it's come down 7-5 in favor of folding.

I folded. The river was a nothing, it went check/check between her and mr. moneyburner. My fold cost me only half the pot I'm still not sure what I learned...

All very true and good advice. A very salient difference is that there's more value to betting 99 than KK on the flop, because 99 needs to force out overcards and as a WA/WB hand KK doesn't.

I'm a huge huge believer that, when you don't have good reads, you make the best of bad reads.

She's a woman playing 6/12. Some women are excellent, aggressive players. Some 6/12 players are excellent players. But without better reads, it's fine to incorporate both these clues into your "default" read. My default read is that she's straightforward and 99 is no good.

If you make a bad fold, it wasn't a horrible fold, because it wouldn't have been bad if your reasonable assumptions held true. Watch, revise your read, and next time you'll make a better decision. But for now, use the info you've got.

Fold and wish you had checked the flop.

yup

agreed!

I like the four card flop.