6/12 Oaks

Game revolving around tilting bad LAG. His tendencies:
1. Raises a lot preflop, but conditioned cbetting tendencies on the flop.
2. Seen him limp hands like 54o in EP, b/f a ton of spots on turns/rivers (rather quickly).
3. Seems to try to outplay opponents.

Some history:
1. Villain iso-raises from CO against 1 limper with 95o. Board runs out: 86QA2. Villain barrels off against another player who flashes a king before mucking the river; villain shows his hand.
2. I raised from HJ with KTo, villain 3bets QJs. Flop: T94. I c/raise, he calls. Turn: J. I bet, he calls. River: A. I c/c.
3. Villain overplays 87o on board of 76492 against my J7s. (I b/3b flop, he c/raises turn, I call down.)
4. I raise ATo against some limpers, villain cold-calls. Flop: J33. I bet villain calls. Turn: 4 (no flush draw available). I bet, villain raises, I call. River: 6. I c/c, villain mucks.

UTG open limps in EP (Have seen him open limp hands like Q8o, 76o), I raise K7 from BTN, villain calls from BB, UTG calls.

Flop: Q75 (rainbow) Pot~5.5sb

Checked to me, I bet, villain calls, UTG folds.

Turn: 2 (brings flush draw) Pot~7.5sb
Villain leads.

Which is better, raise or call, and why?

Villain's range is PF super wide - turn donk range could be a lot of things - your hand is strong enough to raise turn for value. If you want to be more prudent, you can delay and raise safer rivers; that would be my preferred option with 88-JJ.

Just call down.
You have position just make sure you have 1BB value on each street seem about right.
Seem this villain could 3bet you with weaker hand if you raise. so i would just call down and bet if check to.

Call down. I don't want to let him off the hook by raising him off complete junk.

That would be fantastic.

I'd calldown and raise any river improvement.

The problem is i think you would be moreo ften behind than ahead with our hand unless he is a real Lagtard, than ok.
But bad LAG do not mean ****** just yet for me.

You want to keep him pounding on you with bad hand when you have ok hands, is too aggro so by raising too thin he might stop and play better.

I would call the turn and raise if you get a non-heart 7 or K on the river. Do not take any line that involves folding.

@asmitty: of course I'm never folding at any point in this hand.

History hand 4 was more of an information call on the river, but unfortunately, since he didn't show, I'm surmising he didn't even have as good as A-high. So I'm guessing that he had two napkins.

In this hand, even two napkins likely have 6 outs, so I'm not too unhappy folding out hands like T9 (giving him 5.75:1 on calling a turn bet, when he needs 7.5:1 to call profitably). I guess I'm indifferent on keeping in his air here with a pair of 7's in a small-to-medium size pot.

So I think the tradeoff is on the value I miss from getting villain to b/3b with a worse hand (e.g. Ah3h), versus me losing the maximum against a hand villain is beating me with. Would definitely feel like I've been pwned if 3bets went in on the turn and villain has a hand like Qx/set/2pair. Yet, it seems more likely this villain c/raises with his value range, so this donk is so heavily polarized to air/draws/3rd or 4th pair. Against that range, he may check perceived scare cards on the river planning to check/call (e.g. King or Ace).

What do people do with 98s (hearts and non-hearts), A3s/A4s, AK-AT here on the turn?

98s strikes me as a perfect hand to bluff with. A4s and A3s seem like too strong to turn into bluffs and you will probably have too many bluffs in your range if you raise all of your gutshot combinations.

What are these safe rivers people speak of raising when we hold a pair of sevens? If his range includes hearts, straight draws, one pair+ and air shouldn't we just raise the turn? Yes, we hate it when he folds 93o but there's plenty of stuff he's not folding.

Just don't do anything that involves folding.

Call, not raise.

He's betting out on a seeming blank, not a flush or straight scare card. That screams two pair. The Donk bet may be either "yay two pair, I bet" or to prevent you from checking behind his 52.

If he doesn't have two pair, let him keep bluffing his junk.

I don't get why you assume the donk is either super strong or a bluff. 87 or 54 or even A2 are donked here all the time on the assumption that standard 6/12 players have AK or AJ and will check behind.

Not 100% sure Moo is considered a standard player but just saying donking rangea are super wide here.

Lets say his donking range consists of Qx, random pairs, gutters, open enders, air, and some super discounted monsters (e.g. 22/55/77/2 pair).

The more likely he calls the raise with a worse hand makes raising more correct. Lets say he b/f everything except big draws (flush/straight/combo draw), Qx and discounted monsters. (not realistic but at least gives us a baseline)

Knowing this, is it more correct to c/c 2 streets or raise now? What's the reasoning? Lets assume we pay off the turn 3bet and river bet (this should be very small % of the time), and that if our raise is called on the turn, we bet/call river for value on most rivers.

The reasoning revolves around what he'd call on the turn and call on the river (e.g., made hands) versus what he'd call on the turn but fold on the river (e.g., draws that whiffed). A lot of the made hands are going to call 3 either way. By delaying until the river you give draws a cheaper opportunity to hit but also a chance at picking up a second best hand (e.g., a flush draw hitting a pair).

You're going to have to work out the math but my gut feeling is that your hand is too weak to give him fake outs.

This is where i kinda disagree.
You are not giving him anything, he already bet in the pot for you.
If he did bet out with a weaker hand he already made a mistake no?
So why open yourself up to 3bet by his better and making him fold his bluff ?

Seriously no one donks with air. He has some piece.

I already expressed my bewilderment as to why people thought his hand was either so strong he would 3-bet or so weak he'd fold.

A huge part of his range donks and calls.

If my hand were instead 88-JJ, does it swing it to c/c?

FWIW, i like raising all the above + strong 7x. Im prob only stop raising hands like 97s/87s, or maybe 66/A5s.

Call. K7 is not high enough in your distribution, and only a small percentage of your range should be raise/calling.