6/12

I have a very active image, but overwhelmingly have the winning hand at showdown. (Not that the table probably notices; prob just thinks i run hot).

Im guessing this makes this a not so good spot but welcome comments.

I open KT from farjack, 3 cold callers + blinds.

Reads:
1st cold-caller (1cc): plays alright postflop and hand reads reasonably.
2nd cold-caller (2cc): loose-passive.

Flop: 9 3 2 Pot~11.33 sb
Blinds check, I check, 1cc bets, 2cc calls, rest fold, I call.

Turn: Q Pot~14 sb
1cc bets, 2cc calls, I c/raise planning to bet all rivers except for a 9.

Thoughts?

Range assessment:
1cc: 22-TT, 54s, 9xs.
2cc: 9x, JT/KT/KJ/AK/A4/A5/54/65/44-88/A2s/A3s/K2s/K3s/other hands also possible.

My check-back range after raising preflop includes many Qx-type hands: QTs/QJ/KQ/AQ. I probably will semi-bluff this turn with KdTd/KdJd/JT/other overcard + diamond combos. I am checking this board OOP with all of my overcards, so my range after checking on the flop is very weak. (I am betting all overpairs + sets + 88).

Question: Given KdTd, can my turn raise be considered for value?
Question: What's a reasonable semi-bluff range and/or frequency here?

Well with your active image in a 6/12 game your probably getting paid off...id be cautious, so I think a turn check raise is a bad idea. I guess this would really depend on if you think 1cc can fold top pair UI on the river, and with 2cc being LP I think it would really depend on if they both called the check raise...HU against 1cc you have to bet the river, if they both called the c/r I might just check the river

Meh, dislike. What are we targeting here, to get turn value from 54s from CC1 and to fold out the A4 OTR of CC2? closing the action drawing to the second nut flush, I just check call here.

I don't mind the check back otf because it's widely known that we have very little fold equity to begin with versus this large a field and I'm drawing from the get-go, otherwise I would've just cbet the flop and turn.

... also what other hands do you play this way?

nonsimplesimon - pretty much all of my Qx hands. (QTs/QJ/KQ/AQ). I don't semibluff raise turns that much at all, but villains prob don't know that (I think that they think I'm always FOS). For this reason, I think I dislike bluff raising JT (no flush draw) here on the turn, as then I'd have too many semibluff combos.

So to answer your question:
value: QTs/QJ/KQ/AQ (40 combos)
semibluffs: JdTd/KdTd/KdJd (3 combos)

This is probably non-GTO, which is fine as we are hoping to exploit our opponents who call down too much.

I'm not sure what I'd do with AdTd/AdJd/AdKd. These hands all have showdown value. I'm tempted to semibluff raise the turn with these and then check-call river if I manage to fold out cc1 but cc2 calls.

With all our outs it looks like we are at like 30% to hit one of our draws (including K and T as partial outs).

How often, then, does this bluff have to be successful to be profitable? (Sorry, its late and I keep messing up when I try to do it)

I doubt it, but it's close. I plugged the ranges you supplied into Stove, which said you have about 33% equity. But that's only neutral EV in terms of value if both opponents stay in. Which I'd imagine they usually will, although your protected-pot turn checkraise looks strong enough that cc2 (or maybe even cc1) might give up if his made hand and/or draw is weak enough. Meanwhile, cc1 will occasionally blast cc2 out of the pot with a 3-bet, but I'm thinking that will be rare.

As turn checkraise semibluffs go, this one appears to be rather inexpensive. That is, if it fails in the usual way (that is, no one folds), then the play doesn't appear to cost you anything on the turn (except in the sense that it sets up a river play that may cost you if the cards and your opponents do not cooperate).

If we have 1 BB of net implied odds on the river on a turn call (possibly an over-pessimistic guess, but I'm going to go with it), then we would be calling the turn for the price of 1 BB with a 10 to 1 payoff on a 3 to 7 shot. The EV on the call works out to 2.3 BB/hand. So that's what we need to improve on with a turn checkraise to make the checkraise a better play.

I'm about to make a couple of simplifying assumptions on the turn checkraise. Let's say we still get 1 BB of net implied odds on the river when we improve. Let's also say our opponents always both call the turn checkraise. Let's also say that they both fold the river a certain amount of the time that is unrelated to whether we actually make our hand or not. Under those circumstances, we're investing 3 BB (beginning with the turn checkraise) in the hopes of winning 11 BB (unimproved) or 12 BB (when we improve).

(.3)(12BB) + (.7)(11BB)(x) - (.7)(3BB)(1-x) = 2.3
3.6 + 7.7x - 2.1 + 2.1x = 2.3
9.8x = 0.8
x = 0.082

So the answer I'm getting is that we need to win without showdown about 8% of the time to do better with a turn checkraise semibluff than we could do with a turn call. However, I made a lot of assumptions along the way, and I think those assumptions tended to be in favor of the checkraise play. So I'm not super-confident about that target of winning without showdown 8% of the time. I think the target might be somewhat higher than that. But at least 8% is a rough estimate.

*g*

You've got an excellent draw on that turn, but I don't think we gain any FE by raising the turn here. The loose/passive is still gonna call the turn and probably a river bet by you, and the first cc'r is still gonna call that turn and very likely the river also. I would just call the turn and raise up if we hit a K or any of our draw cards. Maybe even raising a T, too.

Anyone think a turn raise may actually increase our IO some reasonable non 0% of the time? aka, we hit a jack/diamond on the river and get raised by lol-two pairs and worse flushes? Also, if our opponents have no propensity to fold once they get to the river, perhaps we get called by wider had we raised the turn but not lead out on flush-straight rivers?

Of course, this also works better with our nut draws so we don't end up spewing against the nut flush. Also, as Nick pointed out, we'll get 3! by sets some non 0% of the time.

For those saying to c/raise a diamond or K on the river, realize that our opponent is an ok hand reader and likely MUBSY-checks all of our good river cards. In other words, our IO is realistically just leading out if we hit on the river. Not to say this means we should or shouldn't c/raise the turn, just that the IO argument isn't as favorable as we'd hope. (On the flip side, if our opponent is a betting and/or calling machine, calling preserves our implied odds as we'd have very little fold equity)

Someone said something about our opponents only having to fold 8% of the time. Our opponents should be folding at least that often right? cc1 should fold somewhere between 20-30% with his 44-88 (guessing %'s here), and cc2 can have hands like 54/64/65/JT/KT (in which case we're bluffing with the best or equal hand) or stuff like A4/A5/KJ (he may, if not likely, folds these on the river).

Nick, I think our 8% estimate is on the pessimistic side. Once cc2 cold-calls and calls turn again, his range is really weak. We can remove a lot of his stronger pairs and add a lot of random gutshots/open-enders. This raise is effectively a squeeze play, as cc1 has to worry that cc2 could also have him beat. In addition, we often make the extra turn bet from cc2 only to have him fold river U/I. (or, if he something like 54 and a diamond 6 rolls off...aka, a lot of fun things can happen)

To make this play more balanced, anyone advocate adding any additional value hands? (AA maybe?)

I'm ok with the turn C/R depending on how foldy we view our opponents and what range we assign cc1 at this point. I think C/R'ing JTo would be poor though. Also, I don't think we should be betting every river. If the board pairs on the river I think we should just give up.

Chocolate, I don't think our IO improves on the river by C/R'ing the turn. All the hands we get action from on the river when we make our are probably going to give us the same action whether we C/R the turn or not. If we over flush someone or Str vs 2 pair/set someone I think we generally get to put in the same amount of action on the river regardless of our turn play.

Chocolate, this 8% is how often we need both of our opponents to fold the river. My conditional probability math is rusty, but its definitely more than each opponent folding 8% of their range on the river.

If cc1 folds 20% of the time and cc2 folds 40% of the time (either completely independent of cc1's action or specifically 40% of the time that cc1 also folds), then the percentage of time that both players fold will be 8%.

0.2 * 0.4 = 0.08

Assuming two folds 8% of the time is correct to make this equitable, getting 20% fold and 40% fold from these two villains seems optimistic to me. I just don't see villains B/Fing or Call/Fing here often, if ever.

Also, this isn't really equity neutral OTT unless both villains call, and when both villains call OTT our chances of getting two folds OTR drops to almost zero.

I think, cautiously, that I don't like this play. Unless you think it's going to provide opportunities to exploit later on, it doesn't seem worth it to me.

But it sure looks fun..........

If this is the case then we will get 3 bet on the turn often by these aggressive players and it should be considered in the analysis.