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6/12 QQ nobody bets

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01-14-2016 , 04:50 PM

ChocolateMoo

adept

Join Date: Jul 2012 Posts: 846

6/12 Oaks

I have an active image. Villain is ultra LP, as is many of the other players in the hand.

I open QQ(black) in EP, 3 calls, villain 3bets sb, I cap, 5 ppl to the flop.

Flop: K

sb checks, I check, all check.

Turn: Q

sb checks, I...check?, all check.

River: 3

sb checks, I check.

Should I bet somewhere?

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01-14-2016 , 06:27 PM

MApoker

old hand

Join Date: Jun 2005 Posts: 1,705

Quote:

Originally Posted by ChocolateMoo

I have an active image.

You don't say.

I'm fine with checking it down. Nobody with a heart is folding, and with four villains, there's ~ 85% chance someone has a heart.

If you're betting anywhere at all, it's on the flop, just to make the heart draws pay for the draw. But once the fourth heart comes, forget it.

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01-14-2016 , 11:25 PM

callipygian

slowrolled by tpiranha!

Join Date: Mar 2009 Posts: 19,880

It depends how many people are going to call with hearts or worse on the turn. If it's more than 3, you can value bet your 10-outer.

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01-14-2016 , 11:40 PM

Chasqui

old hand

Join Date: Sep 2009 Posts: 1,749

Quote:

Originally Posted by callipygian

It depends how many people are going to call with hearts or worse on the turn. If it's more than 3, you can value bet your 10-outer.

It depends how many people are going to call with hearts on the river. If it's less than 1, you can bluff your set.

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01-15-2016 , 12:06 PM

mongidig

Pooh-Bah

Join Date: Jan 2004 Posts: 5,682

I think you played it fine.

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01-15-2016 , 12:51 PM

callipygian

slowrolled by tpiranha!

Join Date: Mar 2009 Posts: 19,880

Quote:

Originally Posted by Chasqui

It depends how many people are going to call with hearts on the river. If it's less than 1, you can bluff your set.

It's very unlikely that nobody has a heart, and also unlikely that someone will fold a heart to one bet.

I would never believe that OP has Ah (he would have bet his flush draw on the flop). As a matter of fact, in the reverse situation, I've led the turn as the BB specifically to induce a bluff raise from a LAG EP, and then 3-bet after he cleared out the field.

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01-15-2016 , 01:16 PM

Hammerin Hank

grinder

Join Date: May 2012 Posts: 594

Inducing a bluff raise at 6/12 when the table is described as LP? I dunno man. (I don't play at Oaks and can't remember when I last played low stakes)

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01-15-2016 , 04:32 PM

Bob148

Carpal \'Tunnel

Join Date: May 2012 Posts: 11,972

I like the hand as played. I'd check fold the river and hope to win ~2% of the time when it checks through.

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01-15-2016 , 05:01 PM

callipygian

slowrolled by tpiranha!

Join Date: Mar 2009 Posts: 19,880

Quote:

Originally Posted by Hammerin Hank

Inducing a bluff raise at 6/12 when the table is described as LP? I dunno man. (I don't play at Oaks and can't remember when I last played low stakes)

The preflop raiser has to be a LAG. But it's a side point. The main point was that there's no way one can credibly represent Ah here.

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01-15-2016 , 05:14 PM

#10

jdr0317

Carpal \'Tunnel

Join Date: Jan 2012 Posts: 8,231

Well by the turn, there's 9 unaccounted for hearts out of 46 unknown cards. There's an over 85% chance a heart exists in one of those other 4 hands if we distribute hands at random (maybe a little less since villain should be marginally weighted to suited hands). Not to mention that's not all that beats us; we also lose to any JT here too (small portion of hands, but possible). For a turn bet to be good, we'd need a ton of customers on it. I think checking it down is fine.

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01-15-2016 , 08:07 PM

#11

Chasqui

old hand

Join Date: Sep 2009 Posts: 1,749

Quote:

Originally Posted by callipygian

It's very unlikely that nobody has a heart, and also unlikely that someone will fold a heart to one bet.

I agree, that's why I was confused by your comment on the turn. It's very unlikely we'll get 3 callers, and more likely we'll get raised. So yes, you are right that if your assumptions hold OP can bet the turn, likewise if my unlikely premise holds he could bet the river. But neither one is a likely scenario and not a useful suggestion IMO.

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01-15-2016 , 08:21 PM

#12

phunkphish

veteran

Join Date: Aug 2011 Posts: 2,902

check down looks fine. Maybe bet flop if you peg 1 or 2+ players dumb enough to fold 8x or 9x.

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01-16-2016 , 04:16 AM

#13

Captain R

Wot

Join Date: Aug 2005 Posts: 7,573

Quote:

Originally Posted by Hammerin Hank

Inducing a bluff raise at 6/12 when the table is described as LP? I dunno man. (I don't play at Oaks and can't remember when I last played low stakes)

A HH strategy post? What's the O/U on that, like 4 years?

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