Yeah I wouldn't discount TT a full combo since there are only three.

Anyway, I still think the more important decision point for hero is whether to call the turn raise. I'd like to see your thoughts and stove on that. When CM defended it I think he used an incorrect pot size (unless something in the OP is wrong), and I think it is either a fold or at least much closer than he believes.

@chillrob:

Yea, pot size was wrong. Entering turn, pot size was 21 sb. After a bet + raise, we're looking at 27sb. So I'm getting 27:2, or 13.5:1.

@ILP:

Just because he limped KTs doesn't equate to him not 3betting ATs/AJ in position. But probably not 100% does he 3bet those hands either.

It's a sample size problem. Do we trust the KTs in EP or the 65o on the BTN? I assume he's positionally aware. How do we quantify a < 10% frequency of hands in his range that I'd never consider?

Maybe he shows up with 65hh?

So i think one question is relevant here that has not been asked. Would you say this is a winning or losing player overall?

Minus a small bet to account for rake, there's 11.5BBs on the turn after villain raises. I mean if we stove our hand vs villain's logical range we're ****ed and should fold, but at this pot size I'm calling hoping for the illogical + the chance we can bink a queen and win. It's an extremely marginal spot to say the least.

Not sure where you're getting the 13.5. I count 11.5BBs on the turn after villain raises (I subtracted 1 sb for rake).


True but I'm still severely discounting those hands. Typical 6-12 players don't 3bet with those hands in that spot, and villain limping in late position with KTs does correlate with not 3betting those hands in that spot.

Yep, when it comes to live poker we're always in a "sample size problem" situation. I would trust the "limping in LP with KTs" evidence more than "raising with 65o after someone posted" evidence. People do weird things when extra dead money is posted. Still an aggressive play that does correlate with 3betting lighter than the norm, but I would trust the "Limping in LP with KTs" more given that it's a situation that happens all the time. But yeah it goes without saying that we're drawing very weak inferences here, but that's live poker. The background read that typical 6-12 players do not 3bet with AJ/ATs in this spot is what's most relevant, and we have no direct evidence that this guy doesn't match that general read.

Well there's a reason I'm not folding the turn in this 11.5BB pot.

I don't see how this matters. But without even knowing this guy I would bet serious money he's a losing player as like 95%+ of all small stakes players are.

I would also suspect that he is a losing player. I think that being a winning/losing player will help us to weight hia ranges throughout the hand. I mean just preflop you are likely to see a big difference in how often, if ever, TT is 3b pre.

I think check/call > then bet/call and the other two shouldn't even be in the discussion IMO.

What is he really repping that we beat?

A10/AK/ and maybe AJ.

How often was he 3betting button?

I am going to go ahead and just post in LC from now on. I remember way back when this forum used to be helpful for discussion and debate. Now not so much.

dump this on the turn. you might be getting 11.5:1 immediate but 90+% you will be UI and calling the inevitable river bet, so its more like 7:1, not enough IMO.

obviously he can bluff out quite a lot.