New player sat down. Villain is Oldish gentleman, very active preflop in the past orbit or so; has not really shown down anything. He came in for a raise 3 out of 5 hands. He also had AT in the blinds and just called a raise.
Not sure if he's picking up hands or just raises a lot.
Villain opens EP+2, MP 3!'s, I cap KK, rest fold. All call. Pot~13.66 sb
Checked to me, I bet, villain c/raises, MP folds, I 3!, villain calls.
Villain bets, I call.
I mooed and called.
Guessing his range, his flop c/raise is probably like A8s/A9s/AT-AK/TT/AA/JdTd/QdTd/QJs/KTs. When he doesn't cap, I start discounting the higher end of his value range.
On the turn, his range should be something like AJ/JdTd/QJ, with some JJ thrown in perhaps. However, giving his aggressiveness, I feel like he may just bet with his entire original range some amount of the time. So his range on the turn must be something like 70% (AJ/JdTd/QJs) and 30%(A8s/A9s/AT/AK/AQ/AA/TT/KTs)
Does that seem reasonable?
70% (AJ/JdTd/QJs = 12 combos) = 8.4
30% (A8s/A9s/AK/AQ/AA/TT/JdTd/KTs = 19 combos) = 5.7
For the river,
Hands I beat: AJ/QJs (11*.7 = 7.7)
A8s/A9s/TT/KTs (9*.3 = 2.7)
= 10.4 combos
Hands beating me: JdTd (1 * .7 = .7)
AK/AQ/AT/AA/JdTd (15 * .3 = 4.5)
= 5.2 combos
So uh....I can beat exactly 66% of his range. But if he folds hands like KTs to a raise or checks his straights any reasonable % of the time, his hand starts polarizing towards full houses.
Am I thinking too much and not moooo...ving enough chips into the pot?