6/12

New player sat down. Villain is Oldish gentleman, very active preflop in the past orbit or so; has not really shown down anything. He came in for a raise 3 out of 5 hands. He also had AT in the blinds and just called a raise.

Not sure if he's picking up hands or just raises a lot.

Villain opens EP+2, MP 3!'s, I cap KK, rest fold. All call. Pot~13.66 sb

Flop: AKT
Checked to me, I bet, villain c/raises, MP folds, I 3!, villain calls.

Turn: Q
Villain bets, I call.

River: A
Villain bets.

I mooed and called.

My thoughts:
Guessing his range, his flop c/raise is probably like A8s/A9s/AT-AK/TT/AA/JdTd/QdTd/QJs/KTs. When he doesn't cap, I start discounting the higher end of his value range.

On the turn, his range should be something like AJ/JdTd/QJ, with some JJ thrown in perhaps. However, giving his aggressiveness, I feel like he may just bet with his entire original range some amount of the time. So his range on the turn must be something like 70% (AJ/JdTd/QJs) and 30%(A8s/A9s/AT/AK/AQ/AA/TT/KTs)

Does that seem reasonable?

Combos wise:
70% (AJ/JdTd/QJs = 12 combos) = 8.4
30% (A8s/A9s/AK/AQ/AA/TT/JdTd/KTs = 19 combos) = 5.7

For the river,
Hands I beat: AJ/QJs (11*.7 = 7.7)
A8s/A9s/TT/KTs (9*.3 = 2.7)
= 10.4 combos
Hands beating me: JdTd (1 * .7 = .7)
AK/AQ/AT/AA/JdTd (15 * .3 = 4.5)
= 5.2 combos

So uh....I can beat exactly 66% of his range. But if he folds hands like KTs to a raise or checks his straights any reasonable % of the time, his hand starts polarizing towards full houses.

Am I thinking too much and not moooo...ving enough chips into the pot?

just want to say that I like this account

I don't know if it's because it's the morning or what, but I found this hilarious. Nice hand. Post mooooore pleasse.

Interesting turn and river spots...both look so close to me. Hmmm, I'm trying to figure out what the turn donk means. I think he should be scared of that card and your range and wouldn't donk with 2 pair for the reason of preventing free card or anything. I'm thinking that the donk means that the turn helped him in some way and for that reason Im gonna go with call turn and raise river. I'm not convinced that this guy is bet folding straight or flush on river. He can probably convince himself that you are so bad that you raise naked trips or are so good that you might bluff raise and call you.

Him check-raising A8s on the flop when the AK is suited is pretty psycho. That's a pretty oh-**** flop for A8/A9. Even AJ and AQ can't be super happy with their hands on that flop when someone cold-capped behind them. Unless Villain thinks you're a psycho, flop c/r probably skews towards vulnerable weak hands (would Villain c/r QJ on flop or expertly wait for the turn?) - AK, AQ, AJ, AT, TT (would he wait for the turn with TT?). He may not have c/r the flop with a draw considering the relative position. Turn donk doesn't actually narrow his range that much if that analysis is correct.

I'd probably eliminate A8s, A9s, JdTd, QdTd from his range and consider raising the turn. Note that with the Q hitting on the turn, it's impossible for him to have check/raised the flop with the nut flush draw. At game speed, I would probably have raised the turn, calling if 3b (and folding river UI).

River is omfgterrible. I don't have time to go through your combos but I have a very hard time believing that you have >50% equity. As played, since he has the initiative, you have to just call. If you had the initiative with the turn raise, I would probably have checked behind (as anything that wouldn't 3b the turn now beats you).

I think turn is a pretty standard call. River I can go either way. Problem is we have to call a 3-bet. I'd say your analysis is probably pretty close, might add in a J9dd/T9dd type hand.

nh, imo

River sucks, but I think you have to call it (I can't see folding a boat HU closing the action getting like 12.5:1). You're gonna lose often, though. Edit: re: turn-->suspect you're behind, but given size of pot I think that's a perfectly standard call with our outs.

btw--Am I the only one getting tired of the "moooooo" gimmick?

I think it's more likely that we're ahead on the turn and spiked an ahole card on the river than the other way around.

Turn
AA 3 QJs 4 AJ 12
AK 3 AQ 9 AT 9 TT 3

River
AA 1 AK 2 AQ 6 AT 6
AJ 8 QJs 3 TT 3

I neither like nor dislike it.

I wouldn't mind results eventually. Great thread.

To see just how far this sort of thing can be taken, I suggest this thread.

AT doesn't make any sense at all. Why would V call flop 3b and then donk when the single worst card in the deck falls for him?

From the description in the OP, we might suspect villain has misplaced aggro tendencies. Still, if we want to hand-read as if he's rational, hands with a J make the most sense (AJ, QJs, JTs, KJ) followed by hands such as AA, AK, AQ, AT that saw the turn as an action-freezing card. Those of us staring at a screen can see that villain doesn't have much reason to be afraid of a raise (due to the AKQ of diamonds being on the board) but at game speed, that turn card is going to induce a lot of non-flush, non-straight hands into checking. I'm leaning toward raising the river. The only hand I logically fear is the royal flush.

edit: I enjoy the Moo theme, silly as it may be.

I think your ranges are a little optimistic on the turn. As others have pointed out, even if villain plays all these hands this way on the flop. Its much more likely he leads the hands we're behind against on the turn and Ch/Calls the hands we're ahead of on the turn.

We have equity when behind which is factor in our favour, but we also face the ugly prospect of a 3-bet if we raise.

"To see where he's at." I agree it doesn't make much sense, but I see it all the time. He doesn't want to c/c his two pair (despite the fact that it's no better than 1 pair on this board), and he doesn't want it to check through.

Even if AT is unrealistic, it doesn't change the turn analysis anyway (even with AT in there, there's not the 2:1 required to raise/call and we're not raise/folding so we should call). I was posting from my cell phone before so I didn't fully explain. We'd need a 2:1 advantage to raise/call the turn, and only have 24:17 with AT and 15:17 without, so it's a call. Removing AT from the river combos won't change the analysis much either as even with it removed we don't have 2:1 to raise/call, we have 14:15 without and 14:9 with (so we either raise/fold or call).